wdoherty

Husband. Father of 3. Coram Deo.
Manufacturing. Markets. Gym.

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

Macro Meets Shop Floor

September 2025

1. Big Picture: The Cost of Money

The Fed’s target range still sits at 4.25%–4.50%, and the effective fed funds rate is solidly 4.33% as of early September.

Markets have pushed hard toward expecting a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s mid-September meeting some pricing models put the odds at nearly 90% though not everyone’s buying in yet.

Shop talk takeaway: Borrowing’s still steep across the board. If you’re looking to finance equipment, inventory, or working capital, think about locking in now instead of betting on a bigger, faster rate drop.

2. Manufacturing: Still Under Pressure
•ISM data shows continued contraction for the sixth month running. The August PMI came in at 48.7%, up just 0.7 points from July’s 48.0%. New Orders nudged into expansion at 51.4%, but Production (47.8%) and Employment (43.8%) remain soft.
•S&P Global flash PMI, however, paints a brighter picture: a strong 53.3% in August, the best reading since May 2022 driven largely by a pop in new orders.

Shop talk takeaway: The reality on the floor probably feels closer to ISM: lean margins, spotty staffing, and output that’s chasing orders. S&P’s optimism looks concentrated in high-growth pockets think AI, capex heavy fields not your average job shop.

3. Supply Chain Watch: Labor Is Cooling

August’s jobs data was a real punch in the gut: only 22,000 jobs added, unemployment climbed to 4.3%, the highest in years, and manufacturing alone shed around 12,000 jobs.

That kind of drop puts a dent in wage cost momentum but it also ramps up worries of recessionary pressure as demand slips.

Shop talk takeaway: This labor slowdown doesn’t suddenly solve your staffing issues. Double down on cross-training, smart shift rotations, and even low cost automation where it helps throughput without overstaffing.

4. In practice: A Shop Dealing with Both Sides

I’ve seen a mid-size aerospace shop do this smartly:
•Knowing rates were high but likely to come down, they negotiated finance terms now to lock in predictability.
•Orders were climbing, but they were short on operators. Instead of hiring fast (and risky), they invested time in cross-training and leaned into their ERP to boost scheduling and job visibility.

Highlight: In messy markets, flexibility not shooting for big growth is the edge.

5. Quick topics
•Oil’s hovering around $95/barrel energy’s creeping back onto your P&L radar.
•New orders are up, but production’s not keeping pace that backlog pressure is building.
•Tariffs are still looming, squeezing materials costs and adding uncertainty to sourcing and quoting.

Closing Thought

Right now, it’s about adapting, not expanding. With borrowing costs high, production weak, and labor uneven, the shops that win are those that stay flexible locking finance terms, juggling teams, leaning on ERP, and reading the fine print between indices.

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

Yields and oil not looking good.

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

@StonkChris Any that you would want to share? Currently questioning my strategy and how I approach it

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

😂

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

In her latest sciolistic letter to me, @SenWarren made it clear that she knows even less about foreign exchange markets than she does about banking.

What is equally shocking, but not surprising: not a single member of the media mob has a rudimentary-enough level of financial market literacy to spot her remedial error.

To reiterate: under @POTUS, the United States delivers for America’s trusted partners.

For a fuller explanation, I recommend Senator Warren take any entry level course in international finance for her and her staff, or I can personally give her a tutorial on Foreign Exchange for Dummies. Although I am not holding my breath, I hope her next letter will demonstrate that she has learned the difference between a currency purchase and a swap or a loan.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

🇺🇸 PPI for July just came in at +4.7% YoY BELOW expectations of +4.9% YoY

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

@dominos this counts as wing??

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

Future & project Pat x Juicy J 🙏🏼

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

Brick workouts are new form torment

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

People calling me “Sir” just throws me off. I’m still 22 in my head

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

@SRxTrades Would you add to this position today?

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

@JasonPremoMFG @JasonPremoMFG DM me if you still need this done. I’ve got a guy who could do it

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

Get Down - Project Pat on repeat

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

Just went 55% cash in my Trading Port.

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

@wliang I would need to sell $SATL to get into $AMPG. Thoughts? Got in early on $SATL

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

Gaslighting myself because of my sleep score last night.

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

Nothing like a 5 AM Monday leg workout to start the week

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

I’ve been married 5 years today and it’s gone unbelievably fast. Wish I could slow time down but I know that it only speeds up. Trying to be present daily!

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

@Thomas_james_1 I did and wish I had grabbed more

[wdoherty @Carbide_Cowboy]

TAM and Bottlenecks