Carl Parker

Data scientist. Meta/Facebook, HBO, AWS, Microsoft, Intel. CS/Math from UW-Madison, Data Science from UW-Seattle.

[Carl Parker @CarlJParker]

Sticker at a bus stop in Madison, WI . . . :-O

[Rob Bensinger ⏹️ @robbensinger]

Altman: "Development of superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity." + "The bad case—and I think this is important to say—is, like, lights out for all of us."

Amodei: "[T]here will be powerful models; they will be agentic; we're getting towards them. If such a model wanted to wreak havoc and destroy humanity or whatever, I think we have basically no ability to stop it." + gave a probability of "doom" from AI advances (including worse-than-death and comparable-to-death scenarios) of 25%.

Christiano, former head of ASI safety research at OpenAI: "I think maybe there's something like a 10-20 percent chance of AI takeover, [with] many [or] most humans dead" + "more up to a 50/50 chance of doom shortly after" human-level AI.

Leike, Anthropic ASI safety research lead: Affirmed that his probability of "doom" from ongoing AI advances is "more than 10% and less than 90%".

OpenAI blog post (by Sutskever and Leike): "[T]he vast power of superintelligence could also be very dangerous, and could lead to the disempowerment of humanity or even human extinction. [...] Currently, we don't have a solution for steering or controlling a potentially superintelligent AI, and preventing it from going rogue. Our current techniques for aligning AI, such as reinforcement learning from human feedback⁠, rely on humans’ ability to supervise AI. But humans won’t be able to reliably supervise AI systems much smarter than us, and so our current alignment techniques will not scale to superintelligence. We need new scientific and technical breakthroughs."

Kokotajlo, former OpenAI governance researcher: "We at the Futures Project think that there's a 70% chance of all humans dead or something similarly bad."

Legg, Google DeepMind co-founder and senior scientist: "Eventually, I think human extinction will probably occur, and technology will likely play a part in this.  But there's a big difference between this being within a year of something like human level AI, and within a million years. As for the former meaning...I don't know.  Maybe 5%, maybe 50%."

Hinton, who won the Nobel Prize for pioneering deep learning: “If I were advising governments, I would say that there’s a 10% chance these things will wipe out humanity in the next 20 years.” Later clarified that his inside-view odds are greater than 50%, and that he gave the lower number out of deference to peers who disagree. Left Google in order to speak more candidly about the risks.

Musk: "I think there's some chance that it will end humanity. I probably agree with Geoff Hinton that it's about 10% or 20% or something like that. I think that the probable positive scenario outweighs the negative scenario." + "Like if the difference in intelligence between AI and humans is vastly greater than the difference in intelligence between AI and chimpanzees, it's hard to imagine that the chimpanzees would be in charge. [...] My sort of philosophical conclusion is to look on the bright side. I can't see any way to really stop this incredible momentum of AI and robots. And at times I sort of think, well, perhaps, even if there was a stop button, we probably shouldn't press it."

Pretty easy to find quotes showing that these people generally expect strongly human AI in under 10 years, and very possibly in under 2 years.

[Ari K @arikuschnir]

NADIR: IT DOES YOU (final version)
My response to the Astra vid

[Prof. Steve Keen @ProfSteveKeen]

This is a beautiful sendup of the US claim to be a democracy.

[Sniperk1ng187 @Sniperking187]

"The Lovers" comes out tomorrow!!!!! It's shaping up to be a beautiful wlw short film and I'm sure you'll all love it! https://t.co/wconZPQ4mG

[Ddegenduel @DegenDueI]

Opponent at #duelarena trolling to draw out time, gives opponent a comforting hug. Can somebody lipread?

#duel #orlandoflorida @duelarenax

[F.O.L.A @folaoftech]

The most complicated way to return tomorrow. 😂

[Carl Parker @CarlJParker]

@OfAthenry @RoKhanna This is covered under the US Constitution (aka the Supreme Law of the Land).

ArtI.S8.C18.7.1 Overview of Congress's Investigation and Oversight Powers
https://t.co/Z3fVn58dRt

[Ro Khanna @RoKhanna]

Israeli settlers, brandishing American made M4s, detained me & other Americans on my trip to Palestine.

When the IDF arrived, they sided with the settlers & continued our detention.

They made a huge mistake.

You will be hearing more soon. https://t.co/rZw8bRAn64

[Carl Parker @CarlJParker]

Google Gemini thinks that McGregor lost tonight's UFC fight after Gemini "saw" a video game clip on the Internet.

I can just feel that AGI getting closer all the time . . . :-)

[TOSSatNight @TOSSatNight]

Happy TOSS Birthday to William Smithers, who just left us at age of 99. R.I.P.
#TOSSatNight

[Chris Hadfield @Cmdr_Hadfield]

Imagine being on a spacewalk experiencing this.
The upper tendrils of Earth's aurora reach high enough that we fly right through them. I felt so small, floating between our planet & the universe, surrounded by this, as we start to permanently leave home.
Filmed by @Soph_astro of @esa through the windows of the International Space Station last week.

[Abhishek @abhitwt]

pov: you visit linkedin for the first time ever:

[Michael Nielsen @michael_nielsen]

I wonder what fraction of our civilization's peak thinking is being done by people through the medium of writing? I suspect it's high. And how much of that will vanish, versus transmute into other forms (perhaps better forms)?

[Paul Graham @paulg]

Not using LLMs to write for you won't be like not using Google Maps in a new city. It will be like choosing to run and lift weights, even though we now have machines that can transport us and lift weights for us.

[Carl Parker @CarlJParker]

@mtracey Where can I read the manifesto for myself?

[Carl Parker @CarlJParker]

@mtracey Where, exactly, is this manifesto of which you speak? How can someone read it for themselves?

[TOSSatNight @TOSSatNight]

"I'm not kidding..."
30 minutes #TOSSatNight https://t.co/YFDEqpiTjM

[B&S @_B___S]

When you don't know what you're doing but ur happy to be involved

[Carl Parker @CarlJParker]

@vintagemapstore The North Coast, the shores of the Great Lakes that border the United States, is 4530 miles, which is longer than any two of the other coasts (Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf) put together.

https://t.co/jWbG7PvTJv