Rapaz, olha esse fecho do Lula agradecendo o convite para a “Marcha para Jesus” e mandando uma bela indireta ao TARIFLÁVIO BOLSOMASTER:
“Em ano de eleição, evito atos religiosos. Fé é sagrada, não instrumento de campanha.”
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$ETH, Liquidity & Alt‑Season Conditions – Explained
Look at $ETH Liquidity chart the same way we did for the $SPX: liquidity regimes matter. If you're waiting for Alt‑season since last proper one in 2020-21, watch ETHEREUM more closely than $BTC. It’s a better barometer for Alts performance.
Let's see the pattern of when Alts last took off... There are only two true Alt‑season periods to learn from: 2017‑18 and 2020‑22. In both cases, Bitcoin rallied first and then slowed while capital rotated into smaller coins.
• 2017‑18: Money supply was high and liquidity was loose. That was enough for a decent Alt‑season.
• 2020‑22: Liquidity wasn’t just loose, it was very loose. The money supply expanded, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the U.S. dollar index $DXY were falling, and short‑term interest rates (2‑year yield) were dropping. Those combined factors created a monster rally in Altcoins. A drop in Bitcoin dominance followed, signalling that traders were rotating into riskier assets.
So why was 2017‑18 only “loose” while 2020‑22 was “very loose”? Because in 2020‑22, even though money supply wasn’t as high as 2017‑18, the $DXY and 2‑year yield were dropping and that’s more important than raw money supply. A falling balance sheet and lower yields add more fuel to liquidity than money printing alone.
We don’t bother with 2010‑13 data because Crypto (BTC) was born during a QE environment. To compare apples to apples, we start from 2016 onward.
Why Money Supply alone isn’t enough?
Money supply matters, but it’s not everything. For example, in 2024 the money supply was rising, and $BTC did fine, but $ETH and most altcoins didn’t. They need a special cocktail: loose money supply plus falling yields and a weakening $DXY. BTC can rally in tighter conditions; Alts can’t. The higher you go on the risk curve, the looser the liquidity you need.
What about now (2026)? Right now liquidity is very tight:
• $DXY is moderately high (not supportive).
• Money supply growth is weak.
• The 2‑year yield is elevated and stubborn.
Even with FED pausing its balance‑sheet tightening (QT), the overall mix remains restrictive for alts. That’s why there’s no real Alt‑season yet—and why even $BTC has struggled recently. Though, the Bright Spots:
• The FED’s balance sheet is no longer shrinking aggressively.
• Money supply looks like it could start improving (though it might take a recession or market crack to trigger it).
• $DXY is stable, and while it might bounce (a “dead‑cat” rally), it’s not in a runaway uptrend. This is also mentioned in Report 2-B.
I can’t predict the 2‑year yield with confidence. It depends on too many factors. But until it moves lower, liquidity stays tight.
So what’s the play?
• Don’t expect an Alt season soon. Altcoins might front‑run improving liquidity and rally before conditions fully loosen, but that’s usually after a scare (a spike in yields or DXY).
• Survive the scare. A mid‑year “2‑year yield scare” or DXY spike could be the positioning opportunity before the real easing cycle.
• Be selective. Out of thousands of Alts, only a handful will truly perform. $ETH is the safest bet if you want exposure; it tends to lead Alt‑moves. And when the right conditions arrive, Alt gains can embarrass $BTC and BTC gains can embarrass the S&P 500's.
In Summary: Know the right Alt‑season conditions—as 2017‑18 and 2020‑22 taught us—and compare them to today’s tight regime. Until liquidity loosens again, focus on surviving and positioning.
Now, you're equipped with far more knowledge, hence far more power, than majority on X shouting "ALT SEASON!! ALT SEASON!!!" in literally every other post.
Mr. P's Macro Report 2-B is going GLOBAL 🌍 Appreciate ALL the buyers around the world. You guys got EXTRA EDGE!!!
Report's short term levels already playing out perfectly. Cheers!
Times we live in… Same pages of My Macro Report 2-B being read from different time zones, that not only tells the work is resonating but how we have evolved as Humans!
Appreciate every single one of you.
Let’s profit across the Globe!
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Why am I doing it after successfully predicting This Crash that left Many Surprised?
To help you in these Red times like I would do for my Younger brother for being here and reading (with best of my Abilities, whatever I know, I could be wrong though)
Mr.P
6 Figures Bitcoin Next.
ThankYou for Playing another 🫱🏼🫲🏻 $94,000 Hit b4 $87K. Shared Free at $89.6K Live Bottom Call, before it was cool.
Since old Critics have turned into Friends, 150 Reposts and I make my Next X b4 Y Controversial bet Public (Quick: time is running out as it's Already shared on My Telegram's Big Monday Weekly Report)
Muita gente parece ter dificuldade com pensamento não binário.
- Ser contra a invasão dos Estados Unidos NÃO é defender o Maduro
Duas coisas podem ser verdade ao mesmo tempo. mas isso exige sair do pensamento raso emocionado
O que é impossível no Twitter
Sim, Nicolás Maduro é um autocrata de merda, mas só apoia esse ataque contra a Venezuela quem defende outro autocrata de merda, que é o Trump!
O interesse dos EUA atende apenas por um nome: Petróleo. O velho discurso de restaurar a democracia em uma nação estrangeira só convence a imbecis.
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I’m getting flooded with one common question:
“Mr. P… when should we sell Alts? What’s the right Exit strategy?”
I’ve finally prepared a full, noob-friendly breakdown thread. If this post gets 100 reposts, I’ll share it for FREE today at 6 PM UTC.
Meanwhile, you can drop your spot holdings in the comments section.