Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research

Predictive modelling and research for elections and the Overton window.

Releasing our inaugural model for the 2026 mid-terms.

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

📌 We will be releasing real-time results all night.

Some results will be skipped because of Twitter API rate-limts, but @bluesky will be getting 10s of real, actual results every minute.

[obaid.wtf/jotbook @wtfobaid]

Ladies and gentleman, the only real-time, and fastest source for election results reported by states and AP, Fox, DDHQ, or any source.

Brought to you all evening and night unless X decides to ban for auto-posting. Please don't @elonmusk.

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Our election data is the most comprehensive archive ever compiled, going back to 2020.

If you're a researcher or anyone who wants to do cool visuals or analytics with our data, reach out!

[obaid.wtf/jotbook @wtfobaid]

Come over to @carmenaresearch Ron, sharing election data priced at $2200 for free to nerds and researchers to do cool things with!

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

U.S. House popular vote

Nationwide – 22% reported:
🔵 Democrat – 14,953,119 (54.8%)
🔴 Republican – 12,038,091 (44.2%)
⚪ Other – 274,436 (1.0%)

Results per AP

#Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

New Hampshire Governor

Carroll County:
🔴 Ayotte – 7,156 (54.2%)
🔵 Warmington – 5,875 (44.5%)
⚪ Villee – 163 (1.2%)

Results per Fox

#NewHampshire #NHGov #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Nebraska Senate

Colfax County:
⚪ Osborn – 237 (48.2%)
🔴 Ricketts – 228 (46.3%)
⚪ Richards – 17 (3.5%)
⚪ Marvin – 6 (1.2%)
⚪ Conboy – 4 (0.8%)

Results per Fox

#Nebraska #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Michigan U.S. House District 7

Districtwide – 9.8% reported:
🔴 Tom Barrett – 22,421 (56.0%)
🔵 William Lawrence – 17,061 (42.6%)
⚪ Shane Dedrick – 566 (1.4%)

Results per AP

#Michigan #MI07 #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Illinois U.S. House District 8

Districtwide – 22% reported:
🔵 Melissa Bean – 37,703 (66.6%)
🔴 Jennifer Davis – 18,947 (33.4%)

Results per AP

#Illinois #IL08 #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Connecticut U.S. House District 1

Districtwide – 3.4% reported:
🔵 Bronin – 5,471 (64.5%)
🔴 Chai – 2,831 (33.4%)
⚪ Other – 184 (2.2%)

Results per NPR

#Connecticut #CT01 #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

U.S. House popular vote

Nationwide – 21.9% reported:
🔵 Democrat – 14,936,418 (54.8%)
🔴 Republican – 12,027,230 (44.2%)
⚪ Other – 273,967 (1.0%)

Results per AP

#Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Minnesota Senate

Becker County:
🔴 Tafoya – 731 (67.6%)
🔵 Flanagan – 322 (29.8%)
⚪ Simonetti – 15 (1.4%)
⚪ Whiting – 12 (1.1%)
⚪ Total Write-ins – 1 (0.1%)

Results per Fox

#Minnesota #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Michigan U.S. House District 1

Districtwide – 3.1% reported:
🔴 Bergman – 7,234 (57.2%)
🔵 Barr – 5,120 (40.5%)
⚪ Other – 287 (2.3%)

Results per NPR

#Michigan #MI01 #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

South Carolina U.S. House District 1

Districtwide – 46% reported:
🔵 Nancy Lacore – 79,882 (55.2%)
🔴 Jenny Costa Honeycutt – 62,983 (43.5%)
⚪ Bill Reeside – 1,744 (1.2%)
⚪ Total Write-ins – 70 (0.0%)

Results per AP

#SouthCarolina #SC01 #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

North Carolina Alamance-Burlington Board of Education

Alamance County:
⚪ Stephanie Long Enoch – 26,259 (18.3%)
⚪ Samira Khan – 23,259 (16.2%)
⚪ Brandy Whittaker – 21,844 (15.2%)
⚪ Kyle Ward – 21,665 (15.1%)
+4 more

Results per North Carolina

#Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Indiana Secretary of State

Statewide – 46.9% reported:
🔵 Beau Bayh – 480,486 (48.9%)
🔴 Max Engling – 448,493 (45.6%)
⚪ Greg Ballard – 35,725 (3.6%)
⚪ Lauri Shillings – 18,578 (1.9%)

Results per AP

#Indiana #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Florida U.S. House District 16

Districtwide – 99% reported:
🔴 Sydney Gruters – 172,678 (51.1%)
🔵 Kelly Kirschner – 158,960 (47.1%)
⚪ Mark Davis – 6,138 (1.8%)

Results per AP

#Florida #FL16 #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Michigan Senate

Eaton County:
🔴 Rogers – 20,951 (52.2%)
🔵 El-Sayed – 18,356 (45.8%)
⚪ Christensen – 428 (1.1%)
⚪ Long – 226 (0.6%)
⚪ Marsh – 100 (0.2%)
⚪ Kristy – 54 (0.1%)

Results per Fox

#Michigan #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Tennessee Governor

Statewide – 33.9% reported:
🔵 Jerri Green – 347,814 (50.3%)
🔴 Marsha Blackburn – 344,001 (49.7%)

Results per NBC

#Tennessee #TNGov #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Indiana Secretary of State

Statewide – 46.8% reported:
🔵 Beau Bayh – 479,571 (48.9%)
🔴 Max Engling – 447,260 (45.6%)
⚪ Greg Ballard – 35,629 (3.6%)
⚪ Lauri Shillings – 18,505 (1.9%)

Results per AP

#Indiana #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

Oklahoma U.S. House District 4

Districtwide – 10% reported:
🔴 Tom Cole – 15,163 (59.7%)
🔵 Mitchell Jacob – 9,657 (38.1%)
⚪ Rocco Bonacci – 558 (2.2%)

Results per AP

#Oklahoma #OK04 #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

North Carolina Moore County Board of Education Member At-Large

Moore County:
⚪ Don Zawlocki – 22,801 (34.9%)
⚪ Jim Pedersen – 16,911 (25.9%)
⚪ Anthony B. McCauley – 13,675 (20.9%)
⚪ Olivia Oxendine – 11,521 (17.6%)
+1 more

Results per North Carolina

#ElectionDay2026

[Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research @carmenaresearch]

North Carolina Union County Board of Commissioners

Union County:
🔴 Melissa M. Merrell – 40,816 (25.4%)
🔴 Brian W. Helms – 40,164 (25.0%)
🔵 Christina Dupont – 39,997 (24.9%)
🔴 Sam Harris – 39,964 (24.8%)

Results per North Carolina

#Midterms2026 #ElectionDay2026