Carsten Menke, CFA

Financial market expert with a focus on long-term structural change. Views and opinions are mine, (re)tweets are no endorsements.

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

Adieu les Bleus! Uscins > Mem #gerfra

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@JReade_WGC How high is your conviction in the OTC bucket? In the past, it used to be a small and not very relevant plug-figure. Now, it seems like an important driver of the market we don’t know much about.

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@TaviCosta Which surge in commodity prices are you referring to?

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@oriental_ghost Total holdings of China physical gold ETFs is 5% of total annual demand. I don’t see this driving prices. It’s too small.

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@biancoresearch I think this is much more than just Covid.

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@SantiagoAuFund Have you put that chart in relation to total construction spending? It’s ten times higher, which makes the impact of this factory boom on construction materials demand negligible.

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

Looks like verbal intervention is working in the European #gas and #electricity markets. Prices are down markedly from the peak as Germany points to above normal gas inventories and a slowdown in purchases. #EnergyCrisis

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@MartinBraml @BMWK Wie schaut’s denn heute aus oder sind die Verhältnisse in den letzten 2.5 Jahren gleich geblieben?

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@Rory_Johnston How about structural China headwinds due to unfavorable demographics, slowing urbanistion, a shift from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth and a new focus on ‘common prosperity’. In my view that’s enough to offset the energy transition.

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@DemaryMarkus Die Logik erschliesst sich mir nicht, insbesondere nicht für Bestandsimmobilien. Sämtliche inflationäre Elemente betreffen die Betriebskosten, die ohnehin vom Mieter getragen werden.

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@DemaryMarkus @V_Demary @knut_bergmann Was bringt die denn im Resale?

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@V_Demary @DemaryMarkus @knut_bergmann Ach DAS ist der Bezug zur Knappheit, jetzt habe ich‘s.

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@DemaryMarkus @DrOetkerPizzaDE @an_dy_wand Ist das etwa schon eine Folge der zunehmenden Lebensmittelknappheit in Deutschland?!

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@DemaryMarkus You think monetary policy drove inflation up?

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@DemaryMarkus Wine, pizza and money. Looking forward to 2022!

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@JanGold_ Is that Japanese to Japanese GDP?

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

So, #Bolsonaro said he would fight against illegal #deforestation in Brazil going forward. How about if it’s legal - at least in his eyes?! #COP26

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

Correlation is not causation. I’d rather go for corn prices leading fertilizer prices. Why? Because of the farmers‘ cash flows.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

A domino effect.

The steep rise in Ammonia prices suggests agricultural commodities are the next ones to move.

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

@JavierBlas I think this says much more about their business models than the energy crunch.

[Carsten Menke, CFA @CarstenMenke]

Not a bad spot to zoom out and discuss the big picture in financial markets.