Catalyst Pit

Every market catalyst. Before the bell. 🔥 Live charts, insider trades, politician buys, options flow & your morning brief.

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

Pre-Market
June 18, 2026
$SPY 745.82 +0.66%
$QQQ 734.30 +1.63%
$DIA 517.56 +0.24%
$CL 74.42 -2.09%
$GC 4,269.70 -2.55%
It's signed. Trump inked the Iran Memorandum of Understanding, with the US set to terminate all Iran sanctions. The deal the market chased for two weeks is done. Futures are green, Nasdaq leading at +1.63%, while crude keeps draining, down to $74 though the world's biggest tanker operator says Hormuz traffic won't fully resume for weeks. Markets are closed tomorrow for Juneteenth, so this is the last full session, and it's closing the book on the war trade.
$SPY $QQQ $DIA $GC $CL

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

The Fed held rates, unanimous and named the culprit for elevated inflation: supply shocks and energy. Translation: the hot CPI and PPI prints from last week were the Iran war showing up in the data, not broad price pressure. With crude already collapsed from the war highs, the Fed is signaling the spike fades from here. The "January hike is live" trade just got a harder case to make. Warsh at 2:30 decides if it sticks. $TLT $SPY $QQQ $DXY

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

The hold was expected. The language is the story. The Fed explicitly pinned elevated inflation on supply shocks and energy that's them telling you they see last week's hot CPI and PPI as the war spike, not a broad trend. A unanimous vote with that framing takes some heat off the January hike bet. Now it's all about whether Warsh confirms it at 2:30. $TLT $SPY $QQQ $DXY

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

Pre-Market
June 17, 2026
$SPY 750.39 +0.01%
$QQQ 732.68 +0.39%
$DIA 521.27 -0.03%
$CL 75.92 -0.17%
$GC 4,343.20 -0.26%
Futures are flat and waiting it's Fed day. The decision lands at 2 PM ET with Warsh's presser at 2:30, and the market wants the language on whether last week's hot CPI and PPI keep a January hike live, or whether the Fed reads the energy-driven spike as a war artifact now fading with crude. Oil sits at $76 after collapsing from the war highs, with the US-Iran signing set for Friday. Quiet tape into a loud afternoon.
$SPY $QQQ $DIA $GC $CL

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

Pre-Market
June 16, 2026
$SPY 755.21 +0.05%
$QQQ 745.63 +0.22%
$DIA 518.79 +0.07%
$CL 78.15 -3.22%
$GC 4,362.70 +0.26%
$VIX 16.12 -0.56%
Futures hold their gains as the US-Iran deal heads toward Friday's signing in Switzerland. Crude keeps sliding, down 3.22% to $78, the war premium draining further even as the world's biggest tanker operator warns ships won't resume Hormuz transit for weeks until the deal proves "material." VIX sits at 16, the fear fully unwound from last week's war tape. Equities are quietly green with volatility back to calm.
$SPY $QQQ $DIA $GC $CL

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

Pre-Market
June 15, 2026
$SPY 751.47 +1.31%
$QQQ 737.18 +2.20%
$DIA 518.00 +0.96%
$CL 80.49 -5.17%
$GC 4,358.60 +2.83%
Futures open the week green, Nasdaq leading at +2.20%, as the US-Iran peace deal heads toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland. Crude is getting hit hard, down 5.17% to $80, the war premium draining as Hormuz reopening moves closer. Gold is bid +2.83% even with risk-on equities the one cross-current in the tape. Five days to the signing, and the market is positioning for resolution.
$SPY $QQQ $DIA $GC $CL

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

@GordianKnotDev @MacroEdgeRes Not ai but thanks.

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

The US-Iran peace agreement reportedly has a signing date: June 19 in Switzerland. But read the fine print the announcement came from Pakistan's PM, and there's still no statement from Iranian officials. The date also slipped from the Sunday signing Trump named yesterday. The framework is holding, but a deal announced by the mediator while one side stays silent isn't fully closed. Six days of headline risk to go. $CL $USO $SPY

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

Trump says the Iran peace deal signs Sunday and the Strait of Hormuz reopens to all traffic. This is the formal close of an arc that ran from a downed US Apache to strikes to a threat to seize Kharg Island, now ending at a signing table. Crude already gave back most of its war premium on the strike cancellation. Tomorrow's signature is the confirmation, not the catalyst. The one open question: whether it actually holds. $CL $USO $SPY

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

Market Close
June 11, 2026
$SPY 737.76 +1.70%
$QQQ 716.63 +3.31%
$DIA 509.52 +1.85%
$VIX 19.58 -11.92%
$CL 86.47 -3.95%
$GC 4,232.60 +2.40%
The de-escalation took the tape. After Trump cancelled the planned strikes on Iran and signaled a deal near signing, equities ripped Nasdaq leading at +3.31% while crude dropped 3.95% as the war premium drained out. VIX collapsed nearly 12% to 19.58. The lone cross-current was gold, up 2.4% even as fear unwound. Two weeks that ran from a downed Apache to a Kharg Island threat reversed into a relief rally in a single session.
$SPY $QQQ $DIA $VIX $CL

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

PPI confirms the CPI story. Headline producer prices ran hot at 1.1% MoM, but Core PPI came in at 4.9% YoY vs 5.4% expected a clear miss underneath. Two inflation reports in two days, same exact split: hot headline, cooling core, with energy doing all the heavy lifting. The war is in the top-line number. It isn't in the trend. $CL $TLT $SPY $QQQ

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

PPI headline ran hot at 1.1% vs 0.7% expected, but look at the core read underneath Core PPI YoY 4.9% vs 5.4% forecast, a clear miss to the downside. Same split as yesterday's CPI: the hot top line is energy and the war, the core is cooling. Producer prices and consumer prices are now telling the identical story. $TLT $SPY $QQQ $DXY

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

AI stocks are rising pre-market because Oracle reported higher capital expenses. Rewind one week: Broadcom dropped 12% and dragged the Nasdaq because its AI spend wasn't enough. Same exact signal heavy AI capex read as a bubble warning then and a demand signal now. The story didn't change. The market's mood did. That's the whole AI trade in two data points. $QQQ $NVDA $ORCL $AVGO

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

Trump is now threatening Iran's critical infrastructure, and Iran's president is firing back calling it "desperation." Infrastructure means energy and transport the pipelines and ports that feed the Strait of Hormuz. This morning's CPI already showed the war bleeding into the inflation data through gasoline. Now the threats are aimed at the source. US oil inventories sit at 2004 lows underneath all of it. $CL $USO $XLE

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

May CPI: headline +4.2% YoY, the hottest print in months and core actually came in BELOW expectations at +0.2% MoM. The split is the story. Gasoline and fuel oil drove the headline, the direct fingerprint of the Iran war and the crude spike. The Fed's preferred core measure cooled. So the scariest inflation number in months is really a war number wearing an inflation mask. $CL $TLT $SPY $QQ

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

Trump now says Iran's military is "completely defeated" Navy and Air Force "no longer exist" after the US strikes over the downed Apache. One week ago this same administration said an Iran deal could be signed within days. The market priced the deal, got a shooting war, and is now being told the war is already won. Crude and the VIX are the two places that disagreement shows up. $CL $USO $SPY $VIX

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

This is Trump putting a bow on the strikes Navy and Air Force "no longer exist," the regime will "pay the price." He's framing it as mission complete and pinning the blame on Iran stalling the deal. The market spent last week pricing that deal and got the strikes instead. Now the question is whether "defeated" means it's over or just the next phase. $CL $USO $SPY

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

Market Close
June 8, 2026
$SPY 739.27
$QQQ 716.07
$DIA 508.87
$VIX 18.83 -12.46%
$CL 91.43 +0.98%
$GC 4,352.40 -0.30%
Markets clawed back after Friday's $2 trillion wipeout, with the recovery led by the same tech names that took the worst of it. VIX collapsed 12.46% to 18.83 as the panic bid drained out. Crude held green, up 0.98%, with the weekend Iran-Israel escalation cooled by Trump pushing a deal and blocking an Israeli retaliation. Gold eased as the fear trade unwound. CPI Wednesday is the next catalyst.
$SPY $QQQ $DIA $VIX $CL

[Catalyst Pit @CatalystPit]

Pre-Market
June 8, 2026
$SPY 743.90 +0.86%
$QQQ 716.99 +1.69%
$DIA 511.40 +0.33%
$CL 91.52 +1.08%
$GC 4,360.60 -0.11%
Futures higher across the board after Friday's $2 trillion wipeout, Nasdaq leading the bounce at +1.69%. The weekend brought the Middle East to the brink and back Iran fired missiles at Israel, then Trump moved to block an Israeli retaliation and pushed both sides toward a deal he says could sign next week. Crude is up 1.08% with that backdrop and US inventories at 2004 lows. CPI Wednesday is the week's main event.
$SPY $QQQ $DIA $GC $CL