Dr Kristian Brock

Medical statistician interested in clinical trials and Bayesian methods. R & Stan. Sailing. SaintsFC. Potty mouth.

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

Dorothy said ‘There’s no place like home’ because that’s where she understood the recycling

[Probability Fact @ProbFact]

“In no other branch of mathematics is it so easy for experts to blunder as in probability theory.” — Martin Gardner

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

@sandypuke I pause podcasts when I have to read or think deeply. But when coding, or even writing, I can quite happily listen to podcasts at the same time.

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

I listen to podcasts all day long whilst I work - but this episode of ⁦@QuietRiotPod⁩ by ⁦@sturdyAlex⁩ hits like a punch in the guts. Very worth a listen https://t.co/rhut5qcJ5M

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

How often does Logan Sargent yellow flag?🤦🏼‍♂️

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

We all need to revere xkcd like some kind of religious text

[Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rlmcelreath]

The folks at @ISBA_events tell me my book Statistical Rethinking has won the 2024 DeGroot Prize for its contributions to "statistical inference, decision theory and statistical applications". This is huge honor especially given the previous winners, who have influenced me so much

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

@youngvulgarian Herb fed though 🤭

[Sky News @SkyNews]

A man killed during the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania dived on his family to try to shield them from the bullets, the state's governor has said
https://t.co/84M23qykBl

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

@TheStatsGeek For the record, it did not rain yesterday so I could have hung washing on the line 🤣

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

A question for statisticians, probabilists, and fans of the weather.

Do you regard these probs as the probability that it will rain in each hour?

Or the chances that it would rain over the course of the day if the conditions stayed as advertised?

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

@TheStatsGeek Interesting. I think there’s merit in that

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

Farewell Jimmy Anderson. Thank you for the memories ❤️

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

Maybe I need to direct thoughts like this directly to @metoffice

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

A question for statisticians, probabilists, and fans of the weather.

Do you regard these probs as the probability that it will rain in each hour?

Or the chances that it would rain over the course of the day if the conditions stayed as advertised?

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

So my conclusion is that the advertised probs apply not to an hour but to a whole day. I could believe, for example, that it rains on 30% of days like today, if the whole day endured conditions like those prevailing now. (I get that changes but that’s fine; the probs change)

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

I ask because the probabilities look too big to me. I often see 20-40% for the hours in UK days. But that would suggest the prob of a dry 10 hour day (ie you can dry washing on the line) is about (1-0.3)^10 = 3%. And I don’t believe it rains on 97% of days like today

[Hannah Rose Woods @hannahrosewoods]

Right

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

But…but…public service

[Sky News @SkyNews]

BREAKING: Lord Cameron and Richard Holden resign as Tories reshuffle top team

https://t.co/2qg6jeMJps

[Dr Kristian Brock @CatchTwentyToo]

Cameron has a huge legacy of idiocy and damage to the UK. This policy was right up there.

It has been revoked by the new government within days of coming to power. Turns out, governing for good is possible when you’re not a complete dick

[Natasha Clark @NatashaC]

Onshore wind ban officially scrapped: https://t.co/emxM3zJUSU

[Oz Katerji @OzKaterji]

A children’s hospital & a maternity hospital miles apart don’t get bombed in the same day by accident.

This is a premeditated war crime.

Russia is targeting women & children in Ukraine, not military facilities or government infrastructure - they are targeting women & children.