CCIObserver

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

Having done those for years worldwide, (feeling nauseous, one sec lol) people have absolutely no idea the process of starting on a blank page 1, and then delivering 10,000+/- pages of extremely detailed regulatory content. And then the feeling after submission. (But that quickly fades as already preparing for the next one lol)

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

And still not even scratching the surface. Cresco, GTI, Verano, and TL all have TX licensing I believe (FL model, vertical integration). Deals mentioned include MSO's entering new states (Multi billion markets, limited license formats). Then you have the aspect of rescheduling impact on new states and potentially implementing Med/AU programs.

Worthy of note as well regarding the previous (PA, TX, VA, FL and more)-
TX, FL? Med to AU is the natural progression decade after decade. FL failed? Well they were not the first. They were the 3rd. CA and AZ failed AU on their first runs. And then got AU through. Just "business as usual". "Same ole". TX? Med? Same thing, and from an operating standpoint, med is to establish footprint, brands, "dial it in" and establish for (inevitable) AU. That's how it works. Always has, always will. (TX also 10MM larger pop. than FL btw. But FL different pop./demo's, so I consider them similar.

International? Curaleaf and Cresco, and more to come I'm sure. As also mentioned before, I was pitching MSO's International projects as long as maybe 10 years ago. (Cheaper, cleaner, bigger markets, no 280E, etc) but the majority passed. Stuck to US. (More expensive, greater financial and regulatory issues, 280E, etc) For a while there we were on a roll (myself and associates) and did projects in about 2 dozen countries. (Design, licensing, Gov programs, operations, etc)

People forget that the licensed and regulated cannabis industry is at this moment in its 30th year in the U.S. (96' CA medical). 30 years.

Interest is increasing. Buyer pool is growing. Valuations (depending on the state/program specifics) are inching up. Beverages enormous margins ($1.5-$3MM retail per kilo of starting material at 2.5mg-5mg servings at retail prices) and just getting started. A single "small" room (2k sq. ft+/-) is capable of producing enough material (extracted) worth hundreds of millions annually in retail beverages.

Part of my days are looking over daily dispo numbers for numerous dispensaries. Some 1,000+ people a day, average tickets $100+. What's the traffic count and avg. ticket on a high-volume Starbucks?

Many might think a comparison (Cannabis/Starbucks, $) isn't reasonable. Alcohol and Pharma might disagree. And the 60MM U.S adult consumer base might have an opinion as well. (220MM more globally) Seniors remain the fastest growing segment. Beverages is going to grow that base/number substantially as well.

Numbers vary (Industry, annual revenue). Black market, "hemp" nonsense, taxed and regulated use still not nationwide, etc). Some think can hit $100 billion+. Maybe so. Current market estimated at 30-40 I believe. Further expansion of existing programs (med to AU). Additional state programs. New products , as well as beverage expansion. Doubling+ entirely possible and not unreasonable.

Just had one of my guys have lunch with someone today regarding a $30MM cultivation design and build out, and getting it inspected, approved, and operational. (Just finished getting up a 25MM op) After lunch discussion of the sale of a dispo package we have an interest in. Dinner was regarding another cultivation/dispo package we have an interest in (possible sale). After dinner? We've been building a roster of genetics of things in the 35-40%+ range (20+/-) to deliver a couple 1,000 cuts to a new cultivation project we have for a nice strong/quick start.

It's nonstop. Has been since last August, and just getting crazier by the minute/hour, and day.

Buyers want in before it all happens, sellers (if they listen to me lol) trying to wait until after it happens. Quality Op's it's a sellers' market. Not so much?, a buyers' market. (MSO's also heavy "bottom fishing". Big time.) Numerous ways also to circumvent state programs that limit number of licenses one may control. Many MSO's controlling much (MUCH) more than they do on the surface.

All jmo. "Business as usual". "Same ole, same ole". That's the game, every day. Welcome to it.

Market? Easiest money ever made was accumulating cannabis heavy last summer when everything was almost free lol. (Well, those and Intel. I have posts dating last year how I was accumulating Intel heavy under 20, and a lot of 27'/28' 20-25c's.)

All Jmo. I'm just some "mutt". What do I know.

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

VA will get done. PA will. FL will. TX a FL model (vertical integration, no retail limits from my understanding), and the on the ground day to day shopping and deals continue. I've said before, I personally know of many in the works, and they're pretty big ones. (100k+ grows, multi dispo packages, single deals $50-$100MM+ pulls annually, etc. For every one I know, probably 3+ I don't.

Altria just took a stake in a Euro operator (yesterday?), and as has been discussed for years ("Big Alcohol/Big Tobacco") the second the final rule for AU is done, some serious things are going to occur. Cresco just secured 7.9% ($50MM I believe) funding. Anyone in industry understands what that means...

Been in this game a long time (decades). And now we're here discussing uplisting and 7.9% loans.

And the "fat lady" hasn't even stepped up to the mic yet.

2027 going to be a completely different animal.

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

@AOC I'm an independent, but this is getting old.

So they're both "sleeping"?, or are they looking down at the game about 50+/- feet below them?

He was going to Knick games there before you were born btw.

The screens are in front of them. The court is down/below them.

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

As a sane, reasonable, rational independent, and an actual trader, this continued narrative is absolute nonsense.

"Insider information" for those who manage UHNW individuals holdings to accumulate Tesla, Dell, Nvidia, Intel, Micron, and so on? When the charts of the very same show a 45 degree angle from far before he was even in the WH?

Doing so isn't unusual. NOT doing so would be unusual. I don't know any serious traders or investors who haven't taken almost the exact same positions. And when they're doing well? You buy more.

I myself was accumulating Intel far before LBT came in, let alone visited the WH. Most know what the market did when he did. Such is the "Trump trades". What was the price action when Jensen, Musk, and others got on the plane for China. No "insider information" needed. Dell? Same. Nvidia? Same. Tesla? The "buy" was actually Walz spouting off the lows lol. No "insider information necessary.

The constant nonsense presenting that he is sitting there on a laptop placing trades between cabinet meetings is just that. And those who handle his affairs? They don't need his help. They do well all on their own. The charts tell you far in advance.

It's nonsense. And it's getting old.

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

Well, as above, we'll see.....

Just to be clear-I have no specific issues with Curaleaf. Nor would speak about it if I did. It's just business. Regardless of who, what, where, when.

I actually have great respect for them. I've mentioned before I was pitching MSO's international projects up to 10 years ago. Maybe even more. (Myself and others have done cumulatively almost 2 dozen countries in addition to the same in US over decades). They didn't see it/have the vision. And also as mentioned elsewhere before, now, a decade later, many are speaking of "global dominance" when they're a decade too late to the game with extremely well established operators in probably 30(+/-?) countries now. My understanding CL activities in 15+/- countries, Cresco 2 (Germany/Portugal?).

But I stand by original point(s), and I think it ironic the day after my statement above we see the price action we did. Which just supports my point. We're nowhere near the finish line yet. This is/was not the time for many things. (I go through this all day and night, every day, and have been since last August. Phone hasn't stopped ringing.)

A think quite a bit is going to happen over the next couple months. I think the "average" person (especially traders/market) has no idea where the industry will be in 2027. (Which I've also said before) States actions, M&A, legislative, market.

Going to be a whole different ballgame in 2027.

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

@The_RockTrading I grabbed the 40c's on that 29.97 green support last week. They're working well so far...

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

“Each claims an injury too abstract or too remote to open the courtroom doors,”

“the Court notes that it need not tackle the bulk of questions that Plaintiffs raise in their motions,”

“That is because Plaintiffs’ case suffers from a fatal flaw: the failure to establish Article III standing to bring their claims. The Court addresses only this jurisdictional hole and will dismiss the entire suit and deny Plaintiffs’ motion for a preliminary injunction as moot.”

"We will not rest until we ensure America’s seniors are safe from these false medical claims and the harms of dangerous marijuana products.”-
About CBD. For seniors. The fastest growing consumer segment (AU-cannabis) for over 10 years nationwide.

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

@ph32121991 @Shrine259 Nothing has changed since they stated their exact intent.

https://t.co/7AWbqncU5p

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

@TheDalesReport @Boris_Jordan @Curaleaf_Inc Actually, per WH statements during the Med S3 press event, that is their exact stated intention.

(Time stamp about 1:33 or so)

https://t.co/6dkxTIfqic

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

@CoryBooker Scott? Jim Crow? Plessy? And speaking of lynchings?

Why don't you ever share the truth? I'm an independent, but the Alinsky playbook is painfully obvious and exhausting.

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

@libsoftiktok Most don't really understand how bad it truly was...

https://t.co/8vDBcvVhXU

[MAZE @mazemoore]

2012. CNN does a segment on the complete failure of Obama's 2 year, $34 million reflecting pool renovation.

This was less than a month after the reflecting pool reopened.

Notice how CNN didn't blame the Obama in any way. They would treat Trump the same way right?😜

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

It's fascinating how yourself and associates overlook the near 6,000 year history of cannabis use, with not a single diagnosis of all which you speak of. Even more so how you all deliberately overlook each and every symptom are well documented and established effects of the wide range of common cannabis contaminants, from pesticides through excessive heavy metals. The very same prohibited from state licensed and inspected facilities.

But not from illegal operators.

What is more interesting is there is not one single case of the above in which any medical professionals involved test the actual material the patient consumed. Nor is the very same required prior to making a diagnosis.

"Have you ever sat..." "Have you ever witnessed..."?
I know you haven't.

All while you speak of "legalizing marijuana", which is actually not what the current rescheduling efforts do.

Yet somehow you believe you have any credibility whatsoever. When you lack the most basic understanding of the current process, common contaminants, and a long list of basic knowledge and understanding of the plant, it's effects, and status.

All while your efforts laser focus on prevention of adults private activities, while the plague of narcotics produce results on the population, specifically the youth, only comparable to act war statistics in terms of fatalities, cost to society, law enforcement and health care.

But none of those interest you and your associates.

Stick to the SAM accounts. Because anywhere else you are woefully out of your depth.

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

I am aware several have interests. But those began a while ago. (Curaleaf, Cresco). We may have pitched Cresco, don't remember (almost a decade ago).

Global markets are VERY active, and quite large. I believe somewhere I have a file with a party looking to offload 400 tons of material (very high quality actually) for extraction.

Most (MSO's) barely have their U.S footprints established. ("Barely" meaning endless opportunities for expansion in the U.S not even underway yet, let alone as we know S3 not even done) But they want to "dominate" the world. Try "dominating" at home first.

From my understanding Curaleaf the largest (in 8 countries? Distribution 15?) and Cresco (Germany, Portugal, etc)

As far as I know (I may be mistaken) Glass nothing operational.

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

@CheddarFlow That TSLA (450c's) an easy call today off the 431.5 pivot to upside. Same with the SPX off the bottom. (7400/10's's off the 7,380 support)

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

@The_RockTrading Ending the day at $4,100 so far

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

@The_RockTrading Just bumped $2,600 for anyone who held a runner(s)...

[CCIObserver @CciObserver]

@MapleStax Was a fairly simple day. Pivot to the downside was 737.50 (SPY) which it bumped and reje3cted hard right before open. Then hit the 7,340 (gap fill was 7,339) and the 7,360c's ran from $300 to $2,600, and looks like a push to the upside again...