Charlotte de Montpellier

Senior Economist at ING |
Views expressed are my own

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

Fear not! The rise in inflation in France is not an indication that other countries in Europe will follow.

Inflation in France is being driven by rising energy costs.

Because of the tariff shield and fuel price rebates, energy prices rose less dramatically in France than in other European countries last year. The starting point is therefore much lower, and energy inflation will be more of a problem in France than elsewhere in the coming months.

https://t.co/VE5DMuwDpc

[Charlotte de Montpellier @CdeMontpellier]

@NBB_BNB_FR @EU_Eurostat @WautersJoris @NBB_BNB_FR, y-a-t-il un projet de publication des séries de données d'inflation instantanée mentionnées dans l'article (par vous/la BCE/Eurostat/Statbel)? Merci

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

The SNB seems to consider that the events linked to Credit Suisse + the threats to financial stability can be managed with other instruments than interest rates, such as liquidity provision.

@CdeMontpellier looks at today's 50bp rate hike in more detail:
https://t.co/YELISSfokC

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

February data indicate that French inflation has still not peaked.

Ultimately, says @CdeMontpellier, the French economy is likely to remain weak throughout 2023, but also in 2024. We expect growth of 0.7% both in 2023 and 2024.

https://t.co/25BdhsgJjt

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

French GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, a weaker figure than in the third quarter (+0.2%) but one that allows the French economy to escape recession, at least for the moment.

@CdeMontpellier reports here:

https://t.co/RUgiihIUub

[Benoît Cœuré @BCoeure]

A lire absolument : une synthèse lumineuse par @pisaniferry et @Selma_Mahfouz des conséquences de la transition climatique pour l’activité, l’emploi, les finances publiques et l’inflation. Des mécanismes qui devront désormais être au cœur du débat de politique économique.

[Charlotte de Montpellier @CdeMontpellier]

France escapes recession for the moment (Q2 GDP +0.5% qoq after -0.2%), thanks to tourism! But domestic demand remains weak and consumption continues to fall. A recession is our base case for this winter. https://t.co/f5vozJijkC

[Charlotte de Montpellier @CdeMontpellier]

@natsilbert @GilbertCette Le risque est bien plus élevé en Belgique, où *tous* les salaires et prestations sociales sont indexés automatiquement sur l'inflation...

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

While there is still a chance that the French economy will escape recession in the spring of 2022, the outlook for the winter of 2022-23 is much bleaker.

@CdeMontpellier explains why:

https://t.co/q7ereuU2Sr

[ING Belgique @INGBelgique]

🎧 Les banques centrales augmentent leurs taux. Cela suffira-t-il à freiner l’inflation ? Y-a-t’ il un risque de récession ? @CdeMontpellier nous explique les différentes manières dont la politique monétaire peut impacter l'inflation.

👉 https://t.co/LGqAMtKOKZ

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

🇫🇷 We believe the French economy is currently in recession and we are revising down our growth forecast for 2022.

@CdeMontpellier provides the detail:

https://t.co/aIK2GxRzW3

[Charlotte de Montpellier @CdeMontpellier]

Even though inflation in Germany is higher than in France (7.8% vs 5.4% in April), the French mention inflation more on twitter than the Germans. Maybe another illustration of the concern of the French, which weighs on household consumption and ultimately on economic growth?

[fipaddict @fipaddict]

🇩🇪🇫🇷 Ça y est, les Français parlent davantage de l’inflation que les Allemands sur Twitter 😱😅 #funfact

[Charlotte de Montpellier @CdeMontpellier]

French inflation increased again in April and has not peaked yet. The risk of stagflation is becoming more concrete every day. https://t.co/wzY3CXWAvJ

[Charlotte de Montpellier @CdeMontpellier]

The French GDP figures are even worse than they appear. Without the positive contribution of inventories, the economy would shrink sharply as domestic demand falls https://t.co/6zYRoZA410

[Charlotte de Montpellier @CdeMontpellier]

Despite all the talks about "third round" in France, a majority for Macron looks very likely

[mathieu gallard @mathieugallard]

🇫🇷🗳️ Sondage Harris pour les législatives :

➡️ Hypothèse sans alliances
🟠LREM+ 328-368 élus
⚫️RN+ 75-105 élus
🔵LR+ 35-65 élus
🔴FI+ 25-45 élus
🟣PS+ 20-40 élus
🔴PCF 5-10 élus

➡️Hypothèse avec alliances
🟠LREM-LR 326-366 élus
⚫️RN-R! 117-147 élus
🔴FI-PS-PCF-EELV 73-93 élus

[Charlotte de Montpellier @CdeMontpellier]

Belgians cut back on spending to cope with inflation | Article | ING Think - Faced with inflation, Belgian consumers are adapting their behaviour by reducing their spending, saving less and reducing the heating of their homes. These… https://t.co/xau9HrjeoZ

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

Markets are getting a little nervous ahead of France's first-round election vote this weekend. Here's why
https://t.co/MhKcFjgUDe

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

🇨🇭 The Swiss National Bank is in a relatively comfortable situation, with inflation at just 2.2% compared to 5.9% in the eurozone and 7.9% in the US.

At the moment, its job seems much easier than that of the other central banks, says @CdeMontpellier

https://t.co/R2lbN7pqs6

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

The Swiss National Bank will likely maintain its 'wait-and-see' stance until the impact of the Ukrainian conflict on the economy and markets is clearer, writes @CdeMontpellier
https://t.co/cHXIyAGEBI

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

.@CdeMontpellier explains why inflation in France 🇫🇷 is lower than in the rest of Europe

https://t.co/NnDRj5NrV4