Election Watcher

British Columbian, former Quebecer. I sometimes discuss politics (duh). (Real job: dismal scientist)

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

Update: After further analysis of the counting procedure, the most likely final election results appear to be:

62 🔵 47.7%
29 🟠 37.7%
2 🟢 11.0%
0 🔴 1.6%
0 1⃣ 1.5%

NDP strongly favoured to flip Ladysmith-Oceanside, while Cowichan Valley and Kelowna Centre are near tossups.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@Prominent_Bryan Yeah, that's pretty nuts. I think the employer's contribution is like 3x their own too - their plan is super expensive because MLAs are generally old, so much less time to compound.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@Prominent_Bryan Don't they get a refund of contributions with interest? Although that might be a very bad deal if they only get their own contributions back and not the employer's part.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

Quebec adopting standard time and Ontario still changing its clock would be hilarious in the summer.

[Paul St-Pierre Plamondon @PaulPlamondon]

Samedi il s’agit fort probablement de la dernière fois qu’on recule l’heure au Québec.

Dans les dernières années, le Parti Québécois a pris position à plusieurs reprises pour remettre en question le changement d’heure. Les études démontrent que cette pratique est contre-productive pour la santé et qu’elle posait des difficultés d’adaptation aux enfants.

Notre intention est d’agir correctement et intelligemment : nous allons donc entendre tous les spécialistes pour valider ce qui semble être un consensus selon lequel cette pratique est contre-productive, mais également pour être certain de bien préparer le terrain et de bien déterminer s’il serait préférable d’opter pour l’heure d’été ou pour l’heure normale. Ces consultations débuteront dans les prochains mois, ce qui nous permettra d’entendre les experts dans une courte commission parlementaire.

Chers parents qui en ont pour plusieurs semaines à gérer la réaction de leurs enfants à ce changement d’heure, ceci est probablement la dernière année durant laquelle nous nous imposons de telles contraintes inutiles. Nous invitons la population à suivre de près nos travaux.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

The troll side of me really loves Christy Clark.

Is there a centrist politician who is more of a troll?

[Neoliberal Akiho ✨🇺🇳🇨🇦 @NeoliberalAkiho]

Get ready for the 2030 BC Election! We have

🟦CPBC: Aaron Gunn
🟩BC Greens: Emily Lowan
🟧NDP: Actual unironic Maoist
🟫OneBC: Hitler
🟥LPBC (formally CentreBC): Christy Clark

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@RealAlbanianPat Keep going with probability, statistics and econometrics courses in university.

AFAIK, a public-facing NYT-style needle has only been done for US elections. Would be a fantastic addition to Poliwave.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

BoC seems worried about another episode where a transitory shock becomes permanent, as high energy and import prices are increasingly passed on.

But with core inflation at 2% and the persistent trade conflict with the US, it's not at all obvious this is the right call.

[Trevor Tombe @trevortombe]

This morning the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5%, up 0.25 points. Its first hike since 2023. It now projects inflation averaging 3% in 2027, a full point above its July forecast.

Announcement: https://t.co/zEb78Z8Eyn

MPR: https://t.co/AFTCH70Ubr #cdnecon

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@acoyne The current plan - 370k new PRs per year and declining NPRs until they hit 5% of population - is probably the maximum reasonable level of immigration.

Anything more would show that gov't is intent to repeat the same mistakes all over again.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@acoyne Decades of 1%/yr population growth led to pressure on home prices creeping up as we built enough only for ~0.8%/yr growth.

With the pre-pandemic increase to 1.4% and the post-pandemic spike to 3%, we finally build enough to for 1%/yr increases.

But on net, we're further behind!

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@acoyne This is a misleading take. As you note yourself in the next tweet, interest rates are a major factor in asset (home) prices.

If we look at rent of turnover units, we see that the population surge coincided with an explosion, unlike anything experienced nationwide previously.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

At least Netanyahu isn't getting a majority, but ugh...

[נדב איל Nadav Eyal @Nadav_Eyal]

Breaking: this is turning into a dramatic election night in Israel.

It began with all three major television networks projecting the Zionist opposition bloc ahead of Netanyahu’s bloc by three seats. Hours later, the picture has shifted dramatically. Netanyahu’s bloc has been steadily gaining ground and now leads the Zionist opposition by three seats according to channel 12. The overall size of the opposition, including the Arab parties, has not changed significantly. 70 => 68.

Likud officials are now claiming that Netanyahu has won a majority of the Jewish vote, adding that “the night is still young.”

Likud is briefing journalists that it expects Netanyahu’s bloc to finish with 55–57 seats. That would still leave him short of the 61 seats needed for a governing majority, but it would represent a significantly stronger showing than anything suggested by the pre-election polls or the initial exit polls.

The counting continues.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@CharJonasson @brent_whiteside @SolaTheAnalyst MAGA supporter lol.

Maybe learn how to read. “Misleading” does not mean “wrong.”

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@mathelm @TheChaosWeeber 160k still not affected, and I don’t think many people making over 100k bother with or have time for side jobs.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

A beautiful bellwether, actually.

Voted for the party winning the most seats in 10 consecutive BC elections.

Which is weird as its setup (most urban seat in BC) and demographics (lots of young people, few families with kids) are completely unrepresentative.

[Melty 🎖️🎖️ @masking_dd]

A beautiful Conservative riding

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@mathelm @TheChaosWeeber I doubt it. 120k not even close to being affected, and extra tax on 200k would’ve been $200.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@Prominent_Bryan I think people cut governments a lot of slack for the pandemic/recovery, and are discovering right around now that new problems (big deficits, street disorder, higher interest rate) are permanent…

Plus gas prices, AI anxiety.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

0th percentile!!!

I wonder what the number for Canada is. The last two weeks' elections told us that, at least in BC, people are grumpy and throwing out incumbents left and right.

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

People in rich countries are unhappy. In the US they're truly miserable.

Sentiment fell more in the US since 2019 than any other country.

US sentiment at the 0th percentile of pre-COVID history, others generally around 25th percentile.

And our economy doing better than most!

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

The BC herding was insane. While results weren't disastrously off - polls missed the final margin by 4-5 points on average - they were so tightly bunched that no poll in the last 3 weeks was closer than 3 points off.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Within <=3 weeks of the election, it tends to be more predictable what particular pollsters will say about particular races and that's not a good thing, actually.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@jdouglaslittle @Prominent_Bryan I think the CPBC will finish up 30-40k and the Greens will finish up 40-50k.

So a bunch of New Democrats stayed home, but another bunch switched to other parties.

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

The Law Society of BC strongly supports DRIPA and is very woke in general.

Not sure if the @Conservative_BC is trying to build goodwill, or if this foreshadows them caving to the judicial establishment.

[Reality, Inc.🧢 @BCBarrister]

The @Conservative_BC is going to get the government's boot off the neck of lawyers. @SteveKooner

[Election Watcher @CdnElectWatch]

@TheChaosWeeber Yes, but I would've voided my ballot this time if it weren't for CentreBC.

Might even have changed my mind and voted Conservative after Green/COPE win on council revived fears of OPS everywhere.