BlueBTC

Bitcoin investor | Bullish on $MSTR $MTPLF | Sharing market insights | Not financial advice.

[Grain of Salt @Z06Z07]

Investors cheer when a company buys back 2% of its stock. Bitcoin only creates ~165,000 new coins annually. @Strategy is buying ~350,000 yearly with $MSTR and $STRC

That’s not a 2% buyback.
That’s a 212% buyback of annual issuance.

After the next halving, it’s 426%.
Thank you for attending my Grain Talk.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

$STRC and $MSTR shareholders have approved the amendment to move $STRC dividends from monthly to semi-monthly. Under the new cadence, the first record date is June 30 and the first payment date is July 15. Thank you to every shareholder who voted. https://t.co/3sIqqF3FCR

[Micro2Macr0 @Micro2Macr0]

The right nut is finishing formation on the $MSTR chart.

Don't fade this phallus.🍆

[BlueBTC @Cedrff11]

@ZynxBTC So bullish. How do you see them managing the amplification ratio if they keep raising capital through $SATA, but BTC doesn’t move up?

I guess they’ll need to tap the ATM hard to keep the amplification at reasonable levels?

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

I’m sick of it. The Bitcoin gloom and disappointment. Don’t you see what is underway?

When you close your eyes, there’s one number you should see in your mind: $500T of fiat assets.

That’s how much global asset value is sitting in Bonds (fixed income) & Money (M2 fiat currency). Why does that matter?

Because that giant reservoir of ~½ the world’s asset value contains the potential energy necessary to power hyperbitcoinization.

This is what Saylor sees.

But do you see it yet?

Consider Hoover Dam. The reservoir behind it contains 12 TWh of usable hydroelectric energy – it just looks like one big lake, calm and placid. But if you stick a pipe through that damn and put a turbine generator in the middle of it and let the water run through it… you can generate enough energy to power the city of Las Vegas for 5 years.

That’s potential energy. Stored, untapped power. And by removing the barrier for the water to flow towards a lower energy state, you can harness the pent up power of the reservoir.

This same mental model works for capital.

A high Sharpe ratio is the financial analogue of a low-energy equilibrium state. Capital flows downhill, always seeking lower risk per unit of return.

(Yes, I know everyone thinks about it as “highest return per unit of risk”, but this is the equivalent and helps understand the physical metaphor)

Do you see it yet?

Think about all the capital parked in fixed income instruments or money market funds. All of this capital is parked there because it has historically provided an acceptable trade-off of modest nominal returns for minimal risk.

The entire premise of fixed income is “here’s a way to park cash in low-risk instruments that will generate a positive return slightly greater than inflation.” Adjacent to this asset category is “cash and cash equivalents” where the value proposition is somewhat smaller returns in exchange for even less risk.

And over the decades, a steady stream of capital has found its way into these asset buckets that promise low risk and modest nominal returns via future fiat cashflows.

These buckets have become a giant fiat reservoir, brimming with nearly $500T of capital.

Do you see it yet?

Along comes Strategy. @saylor realizes that much of this $500T of capital would be better off if it flowed into Bitcoin. But Saylor also recognizes that this reservoir of capital is inherently constrained. Boxed in by convention, investment mandates, risk management, volatility aversion, etc.

It won’t flow to Bitcoin on its own. It can’t – it’s walled off, dammed up.

Strategy engineers a solution. Creates a product to meet that capital where it’s at. The $500T fiat asset reservoir wants low risk, low volatility, fiat cash flows. Strategy designs preferred equity instruments that solve for these constraints, while Strategy uses the fiat capital proceeds to buy Bitcoin (which it believes will appreciate at 29% CAGR for the next 20 years).

In exchange for capital today, STRC offers 11.5% annual returns with volatility asymptotically approaching 0. The Sharpe ratio is off the charts. It breaks everything in tradfi portfolio allocation. At first glance, it seems impossible. But it works because it’s not powered by risk-taking layered on top of fiat inflation; it’s powered by the ongoing monetization of a superior monetary asset whose endogenous properties ensure its appreciation when valued in fiat currency units over time.

Saylor terms this kind of Bitcoin-powered fixed income offering “Digital Credit.”

When a commodity flows from a high-energy state to a low-energy state, it releases energy. In the case of Hoover Dam, that energy can be used to power a hydroelectric turbine. In the case of Bitcoin treasury companies with Digital Credit offerings, that energy can be used to power shareholder returns for common equity holders. This can happen in every major capital market in the world.

Do you see it yet?

Strategy has stuck a pipe through the dam. A conduit through which capital can flow out of the Fiat Asset Reservoir and towards a low-energy equilibrium state. Digital Credit offerings (e.g., STRC, SATA, and others) create that value proposition.

And what’s the Total Addressable Market (TAM)? All $500T of fiat assets in the reservoir.

The recent SpaceX IPO Prospectus recently made a splash by claiming the company had a combined $28.5T TAM, proclaiming that this was the “largest TAM in human history.”

But my essay from 2023 titled “Bitcoin’s Full Potential Valuation” already articulated how Bitcoin’s TAM is all value itself, above and beyond the usual lens of annual economic activity across industries. Saylor read it, adopted it for his presentations, and built on it with the Bitcoin24 valuation model.

The SpaceX Prospectus is wrong. Bitcoin has the largest TAM in human history.

And Digital Credit has the second largest TAM in human history – the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir.

Do you see it yet?

Digital Credit offerings will redirect some % of the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir into Bitcoin. This will happen because the value proposition of Digital Credit offerings is higher Sharpe than anything I am aware of in the entire $500T reservoir, inflation-adjusted.

Think of it as the Second Law of Capital Dynamics: capital flows toward assets offering superior risk-adjusted returns.

If Digital Credit ingests 1% over the coming decades, that’s $5T. It seems unreasonably pessimistic to think that only 1% of the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir would be interested in vastly better returns with a similar (or better) risk profile.

Let’s say Digital Credit appeals to a (still-conservative) 10% of the $500T fiat asset reservoir, that’s $50T.

Bitcoin is currently a $1.5T asset.

Do you see it yet?

Digital Credit may direct a torrent of $50T of capital into Bitcoin over the coming decades. All of it bidding for a finite supply of Bitcoin.

The scale of that inflow would likely drive Bitcoin’s valuation to $10m/BTC, or ~$200T total.

Digital Credit is the plumbing of hyperbitcoinization.

This is how it happens – you’re watching the early stages of Bitcoin’s monetization megatrend.

The question is: do you see it? Or will it have to play out first?

[BlueBTC @Cedrff11]

$NAKA at ~$4.62 (MC ≈ $80M) is starting to look ridiculously cheap, even if you’re not a fan of the management.

Let’s be real:

Debt due Dec 2026 ($210M)
Cash burn + high executive salaries
History of dilution and some questionable execution

The “hate” is loud and the risks are real.
But here’s the math the market seems to be ignoring:

5,064 BTC ≈ $383.8M

Cash $35.3M

– Debt $210M → Net Asset Value (NAV) ≈ $209M
They are currently trading at 0.38x mNAV → a 62% discount on their net Bitcoin holdings.

You’re paying 38 cents for every $1 of BTC they own net of debt.

Yes, management isn’t perfect. Yes, the cash gap needs to be filled. But at this price, the market is pricing in permanent failure, massive dilution, margin call, or total collapse.

If they simply execute “okay” (refinance the debt cleanly, scale the existing yield program that already made $1.1M in Q1, or let the Bitcoin Conference + UTXO flywheel work), the rerating to even 0.8x–1.0x mNAV would be violent.

Is the market over-exaggerating the drama relative to the actual assets on the balance sheet?

[BlueBTC @Cedrff11]

@RepzdaCanes Valid point on the monthly gap — interest (~$1.4M) + exec salaries + ops create real pressure.
But look at the current valuation:

MC = $80.4M
NAV (BTC + cash - debt) = $209.1M → trading at 0.38x mNAV (62% discount on net BTC)

The market has already priced in this exact shortfall (and worse) continuing forever + dilution + debt risk.
Q1 facts (10-Q):

• Derivatives yield (covered calls etc.) already generated $1.1M in one quarter.
• Adjusted operating loss $7.8M (includes one-time integration costs).
• BTC Conference + events historically bring meaningful revenue (they are scaling this).

At 0.38x, any narrowing of the gap (yield scaling + conference cash + refinancing in Dec 2026) triggers a violent rerating toward 0.8x–1.0x. The asymmetry is extreme because the bad news is fully baked in.

Numbers don’t lie — the stock is pricing in permanent failure. If they execute even decently, the upside is massive.

[Zynx @ZynxBTC]

I wouldn't be surprised if the ultimate end game for $MSTR is for the US Government to acquire a part or all of it.

The comparison with the Bank of England is the best example. A private institution that accumulated so much systemic importance that the state eventually had to bring it inside the tent.

Strategy is on that trajectory with 4% of the entire Bitcoin supply and growing.

At some point the US Government may decide that having the world's largest Bitcoin treasury in private hands is a geopolitical risk they cannot leave unmanaged.

This is not bearish. Quite the opposite.

By the time that conversation happens Strategy will be a multi-trillion dollar company. The shareholders who are here today will have seen the stock 100x.

[Zynx @ZynxBTC]

It looks like $ASST is going to be able to raise enough capital to grow their Bitcoin NAV by 5-10% every single week for the next few months.

At a market cap of $1.36 billion, that is an extraordinary rate of growth for any company, let alone one this size.

I will go on record now. They will raise $1 billion via $SATA in a single month before the end of the year.

Which makes you wonder, what will the market cap be by then?

The Daily Dividend Company is just getting started.

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

https://t.co/XoAGhgLtZA

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy to repurchase $1.5 billion principal amount of 2029 convertible notes. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/enRuc7PBkY

[Matt Cole @ColeMacro]

$SATA Updates:
- First security in history to pay daily dividends
- Beginning 6/16/26, pays on business days, ~250x per year
- APR maintained at 13% through June '26

@Strive now holds 15,009 Bitcoin (~$1.2B) with zero debt & $ASST is the only BTCTC w/ pref only amplification.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

$STRC is credit engineered for income, stability, liquidity, and principal protection. It is backed by our BTC and USD assets and supported by active treasury operations. We structured it as preferred equity rather than debt to make it more scalable, durable, global, and useful.

[Zynx @ZynxBTC]

Just finished watching the debate between @PunterJeff and @coffeebreak_YT.

It confirms what I already believed. Bitcoin Twitter is at least 10 years ahead of the general population.

Truly understanding Bitcoin and Bitcoin credit products like STRC and SATA carries more practical weight today than a degree from Harvard or Oxford.

You are in the 0.001% if you're this early and understand.

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

Sat down with @coffeebreak_YT today on Bitcoin and Digital Credit.

His edit will drop soon. Posting the full raw hour for anyone who wants the unfiltered version.

Enjoy

[Riley Brown @rileybrown]

2026 is the year of Agents
OpenClaw, Claude Code, Codex and Cursor...

In this video, I broke it all down with @Rasmic.
Consider this a 2026, year in review for AI agents.

00:00 Intro
01:35 Q1 Belonged to Anthropic
03:02 Opus 4.5 Inflection
08:42 Codex vs Claude UX War
12:53 Cursor was first?
14:27 SpaceX Acquisition Deal with Cursor
21:45 OpenClaw and the Agentic Personal Computer
28:57 Reactive vs Proactive Work
30:30 Keep Agents Narrow
33:12 Memory Layer Matters
36:23 Computer Use will get FAST
39:28 Who Wins the Super App? (Codex so far)
41:06 The Problem With Google...
45:17 Prompting and Skills creation
51:30 Codex Skill Example
56:56 Integrations Beat Prompts
59:39 All the Muxes (CMUX, TMUX)
01:02:04 Bold Predictions
01:06:38 Agent Commerce

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

$MSTR announces Q1 2026 results:
- 818,334 $BTC held
- 9.4% BTC Yield achieved YTD 2026
- $STRC scaled to $8.5 billion in 9 months
- Largest US equity issuer, raised $11.6 billion YTD 2026
https://t.co/0vrqUsTGCM