ced

Bubble Chaser. Professional Chokepoints Tradoooor. Substrates Expert.

[ced @CedsSim]

Note to Self: Selling is arguably the most difficult task in your trading/investing/speculating journey; the last hurdle that many failed at. Days like yesterday are humbling and shows the importance of having an exit plan. Grateful to have taken 5% off the past few weeks.

[ced @CedsSim]

@pakpakchicken Only thing he didn't miss is crap posting on X to get his $1 elon bucks.

[ced @CedsSim]

@pakpakchicken @grok on a scale of 0-10, what’s the likelihood of him being a LARP? 0 being the least likely.

[Zac @Zac_labs]

My Korean friend says the subtle flex in the dating market right now is wearing an SK Hynix jacket to your first date.

My Taiwanese friend says he is wearing TSMC shoes to his reunion.

Wonder if I can buy both on Taobao and wear them for morning jog at East Coast Park.

Semiconductor drip is the new streetwear. No wonder Nike stocks tanking.

[ced @CedsSim]

@jakebrowatzke People who took up your help the past months are dialling the suicide helpdesk bruh.

[ced @CedsSim]

@yilinren1 @Rainmaker1973

[ced @CedsSim]

@mfigge @ape7458 Ape follow ape!

[ced @CedsSim]

@tylerxhobbs @shape ( 01 / 10 ) Tyler Hobbs

[ced @CedsSim]

@MotionMarkus

[ced @CedsSim]

@0xkyle__ Love the setup!

[ced @CedsSim]

@0xZamunda @DCinvestor He said FUCK OFF. why are you still rambling on? You sound like a dumb dude blinded by irrational faith.

[ced @CedsSim]

@AnamaMOSS @netanyahu @Cmt007075

[ced @CedsSim]

@__MCMXCV @0xZamunda @DCinvestor The unpopular guy in class is butthurt syndrome.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

My net worth peaked at $1.2 million.

None of it was real.

I don't mean that philosophically. I mean it was located on servers that have since been turned off.

I own eleven properties in the metaverse. Three in Decentraland. Four in The Sandbox. Two in Voxels. One in Otherside. And a beachfront villa in Horizon Worlds that I bought for $214,000 because Mark Zuckerberg called it "the next frontier."

The frontier closed last week.

It's a mobile app now.

Last year I mass DM'd 340 people the phrase "you don't understand how early we are." I have since stopped doing that. Not because I was wrong. Because most of them blocked me.

I got into metaverse real estate in November 2021. Everyone was buying. Someone paid $450,000 to be Snoop Dogg's neighbor. In a video game. With no legs.

The avatars didn't have legs.

I thought that was bullish. "The legs are coming," I told my Discord. "Legs are a roadmap item." Three hundred people reacted with rocket emojis.

I called myself a "digital land baron."

I put it in my Twitter bio.

I put it in my LinkedIn headline.

I said it on a podcast that had eleven listeners. Three of them were bots. The rest were my alts.

My virtual property has more square footage than my actual apartment.

My actual apartment has furniture.

Location, location, location.

My most valuable asset was a plot next to a virtual Gucci store. Gucci left in 2023. The store is still there. Nobody's in it. It's like a mall in Ohio but with worse graphics and no food court.

I held.

Diamond hands.

That's what we said. "Diamond hands." It means refusing to sell while your investment loses 94% of its value. We turned financial paralysis into a personality trait.

A guy in my Discord paid $2.4 million for a 618-parcel estate in Decentraland. Prime district. High foot traffic. I asked him what "foot traffic" meant when the platform had 38 daily active users.

He said I didn't understand the technology.

I didn't.

I still bought more.

We had a DAO. A decentralized autonomous organization. That means we voted on decisions. There were nine of us. Three never showed up. Two voted on everything without reading it. The other four were me and my alts.

We voted to "acquire strategic parcels."

The vote passed unanimously.

I voted four times.

My portfolio peaked at $1.2 million. I told everyone. I made a spreadsheet. I projected 40x returns by 2025. I made a pitch deck. The pitch deck had a slide that said "WE ARE BUILDING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY."

The slide had a rocket emoji.

That was my entire financial model.

In 2023 I bought a Bored Ape for $189,000.

It's worth $14,000 now.

I don't talk about the Ape.

I still use it as my profile picture. People ask me about it. I say "I'm long-term bullish." Long-term bullish means I can't sell it without crying in a Panera.

My mom asked me what a Bored Ape was.

I said "digital art on the blockchain."

She asked why it cost more than her car.

I said "you don't understand Web3."

She said "I understand you live in a studio apartment."

She's not in my Discord.

Justin Bieber bought one for $1.3 million.

It's worth about $90,000 now.

I felt better about mine after I heard that.

That's community.

WAGMI. We're All Gonna Make It. We said that every day. In the group chat. While the floor dropped. While the volume dried up. While 95% of all NFT collections went to zero.

We're all gonna make it.

None of us made it.

But we said it with conviction and a laser-eye profile picture. That counts for something.

It doesn't.

But we said it did. That's decentralized consensus.

Meta spent $84 billion on the metaverse.

I need to say that again.

$84 billion.

More than the GDP of Luxembourg. More than the GDP of Iceland, Luxembourg, and Malta combined. They spent it on a platform where the avatars had no legs, the graphics looked like a 2006 Wii game, and the peak user count was lower than the lunch rush at a Chipotle in Des Moines.

They just pulled Horizon Worlds from VR headsets.

It lives on as a mobile app.

My beachfront villa is now a mobile app.

Location, location, location.

Zuckerberg renamed the entire company for this. Facebook became Meta. A $900 billion company changed its legal name because the CEO watched Ready Player One and said "I want that."

Reality Labs lost $10 billion in 2021. $14 billion in 2022. $16 billion in 2023. $18 billion in 2024. $19 billion in 2025.

That's not a strategy. That's a speedrun.

They laid off 1,500 Reality Labs employees this year. Shut down three VR studios. Killed Supernatural. Put the entire VR social vision in a casket and said "we're pivoting to AI and wearables."

The pivot took four years and $84 billion.

I pivoted too.

I'm an AI real estate investor now.

I bought a virtual plot in an AI-generated world that doesn't exist yet. The founder said it was "the intersection of spatial computing and large language models."

I don't know what that means.

I gave him $40,000.

He has a whitepaper. It's 47 pages. I read the title and the tokenomics section. The tokenomics section is a pie chart. I love pie charts. They make everything look like a plan.

The project has a roadmap. Q1: "Build community." Q2: "Launch beta." Q3: "Scale ecosystem." Q4 is blank.

Q4 is always blank.

That's where the exit scam goes.

My accountant asked me to value my metaverse portfolio for tax purposes.

I said $1.2 million.

He said "current market value."

I said $6,400.

He stared at me for eleven seconds.

I know because I counted.

He asked if I had any other investments.

I showed him my NFTs.

He stared for longer.

I told him they were "cultural artifacts with long-term provenance."

He asked if I'd considered a 401k.

I told him a 401k was "legacy finance."

He told me to leave his office.

The metaverse is dead.

I don't accept that.

I am a digital land baron. I own eleven properties across four platforms. I have a beachfront villa in a mobile app, a plot next to an empty Gucci store, and a cartoon monkey that cost me more than my actual car.

Location, location, location.

The location is nowhere.

But I'm early.

I'm always early.

That's the same as being wrong except you get to say it with confidence.

[ced @CedsSim]

@UL79057241 @Jerusalem_Post Do you also happen to be the person performing the oral suction?

[ced @CedsSim]

@TheChartReport @jasongoepfert @grok are credit spreads at 9 month high now?

[ced @CedsSim]

@Jkylebass @joekent16jan19 I guess you believed that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction too. 🤡

[ced @CedsSim]

Remember the stream of doomsday posts in Mar-Apr last year calling, for raging inflation and subsequent recession due to Trump’s blanket tariffs?

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

Hormuz famine timelines

A month-long closure of Hormuz, which is already the base case, will lead to inflation. The hydrocarbon value chain will be most impacted.

A 3 month closure and you're looking at a high probability of regional famines in the most vulnerable areas.

When we start looking at 6 months or more we get into the really dark scenarios. 50% of all food globally is produced with synthetic inputs. These supply chains will be incredibly stressed, and export bans and windfall taxes likely cap output. At a 6-month closure you're looking at near certain regional famine conditions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Inflation in Europe and the United States will be the highest in living memory.

If Hormuz is closed for multiple years, The probability of global famine and the death of billions starts to become highly probable.

As a base case, I expect that the longer that the closure goes on, the more probable World War II style rationing becomes. We could be there within months even in rich countries.

Reducing consumption and limiting waste is going to become very important. Creating non-industrial fertilizer systems will eventually become essential. This essentially means free grazing and animal husbandry and even utilizing human waste.

Good farmland that can produce food with no synthetic inputs could become extremely valuable.

[ced @CedsSim]

@DeItaone @grok did it happen? Or did Trump forget his meds?

[ced @CedsSim]

@SamsonLi7 @grok give a list of tickers of companies who benefits the most from this.