Michele Ceschi

🏒🏦📈

[Leo @leoxbtt]

Un profesor del MIT les ofreció a sus alumnos una apuesta simple:

Cara: ganas $125 dólares.
Cruz: pierdes $100.

Matemáticamente es un robo. De media sales +$12.50 por cada vez que la juegas. Es lo que los economistas llaman “más que justa”.

La mayoría de la clase dijo que no.

No eran tontos. Eran humanos.

El profesor lo llevó más lejos. Les dijo: “Los voy a obligar a hacer esta apuesta… a menos que me paguen para librarse”.

¿Cuánto estaban dispuestos a pagar?

$43 dólares.

Casi la mitad de su dinero… para escapar de una apuesta que está a su favor.

Eso no es debilidad.

Se llama aversión al riesgo.

Y es exactamente la razón por la que existe el seguro, las garantías extendidas y casi todas las decisiones “seguras” que tomamos con el dinero.

No estás siendo irracional cuando rechazas una buena apuesta.

Estás poniendo precio al miedo de perder.

En esta clase del MIT se aprende cómo funciona realmente la utilidad esperada.

Por qué la aversión al riesgo no es un defecto, sino una característica humana.

Y cómo eso explica casi todas las decisiones económicas que tomamos a diario.

Guárdala para ver mas tarde 🔖

[Menthor Q @MenthorQpro]

1/ What is an Iron Butterfly?

It’s a market-neutral options strategy designed to benefit when price stays near a specific level, time passes, and volatility falls.

The key feature: both maximum profit and maximum loss are defined.

[©️redit From Ⓜ️acro to Ⓜ️icro @Credit_Junk]

Good setup in Cocoa
Fundamentals: strong Nino is coming with production at risk in 70% of production countries
Tech: compression as a good bottom of downtrend, positioning of speculators very short

[Muhammad Ayan @socialwithaayan]

BREAKING: AI can now analyze any stock like a Wall Street analyst (for free).

Here are 10 insane Grok prompts that replace $2,000/month Bloomberg terminals: (Save for later):

[Science girl @sciencegirl]

You are always one decision away from a different life

[MARKET INSIGHTS! @IManghaila]

What a successful day trader does.

[Grey @jgreyfriend]

In 2010, Bill Ackman gave a 44-minute masterclass on how money actually works using a lemonade stand.

He talks about:
•⁠ ⁠How businesses create value
• ⁠Why most investors lose money
• ⁠How compounding really builds wealth

12 timeless lessons from Ackman's masterclass:

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

The Only EMA System You’ll Ever Need (Used the Right Way)

Price doesn’t “respect” indicators.
It respects the average cost of smart money.

That’s all EMAs are.

EMA = context, not magic.

• EMA 9 → Intraday traders
• EMA 21 → Swing traders
• EMA 50 → Trend traders
• EMA 200 → Investors & big trends

Different EMAs = different players.

Market control rule:
Price above EMA → Buyers in control
Price below EMA → Sellers in control

High-probability filter:
✔ Price above 200 EMA
✔ 21 EMA above 50 EMA
✔ Pullback toward 21 EMA
✔ Volume dries up on pullback
✔ Buy only on bullish candle near 21 EMA

Trend phases:
1️⃣ Initiation
2️⃣ EMA pullback
3️⃣ Momentum expansion
4️⃣ Weakness (stop chasing)

Exit like a pro:
• Take partials at 1:2 RR
• Move stop to breakeven
• Trail with 21 EMA
• Exit fully if price closes below 50 EMA

EMAs don’t predict.
They protect you from bad trades.

Trade with context. Stay patient.

[Quant Science @quantscience_]

Automate your trading strategies in Python

How to build your first trading bot:

(a thread)

[Menthor Q @MenthorQpro]

VIX as Regime Signal.

Quick Cheatsheet:

[The Market Mind @Market_Mind_]

The Best Investing Tools

[Mindset Machine  @mindsetmachine]

This speech will change your life 💯🙏

[Quant Science @quantscience_]

A 23-page research paper reveals the number 1 method Hedge Funds use to beat the market:

Time Series Momentum

This is how: 🧵

[Menthor Q @MenthorQpro]

Theta is time.

If you trade calls or puts, understanding how Theta erodes option value is essential.

[Menthor Q @MenthorQpro]

Most of the biggest futures moves don’t start in futures. They start in options 👀

[Scholarship for PhD @ScholarshipfPhd]

How to Write Clearly

[Nicolas Boucher @BoucherNicolas]

C- Level Jobs Explained

[Quant Science @quantscience_]

*Using Mathematics to Make Money* by legend Jim Simons.

8 page PDF free for download:

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

Every book Charlie Munger has recommended in Berkshire meetings since 1994:

[Dhaval (Investment Books) @InvestmentBook1]

Valuation Ratios by Sector wise India