The Chairman's Ledger

Ex-IB. Ex-startup founder, $100M+ exit. Former Special Operator. Defense tech, AI infra, Space, BTC, public market asymmetry.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

New account, so here’s the short version.

I started at JPM.

Built a company.

Sold it for $100M+.

Served in places where risk was not theoretical.

Now I spend my time looking for public companies sitting at the intersection of capital, technology, and strategic necessity.

Defense tech.
AI infrastructure.
Space.
Bitcoin.
Critical infrastructure.

I am not here to post 50 tickers and celebrate the ones that work.

I am here to find the few names where the market is using the wrong frame.

Old category.
New asset.
Messy transition.
Right team.
Massive demand pull.

That is where the asymmetry usually lives.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@XCapitalMgmt Tempting I must say.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@vovweb3 @jiahanjimliu @_Sgr_A_Star Well that’s not how a convert works right.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

The AI revolution is bigger than any one man. The show must go on.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@bitcoinbutcher1 What an interesting take.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@AtlasShrug1 Very weak signal for AI compute demand.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@AtlasShrug1 Now you wait for earnings and cover your short at a loss.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

🫡

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

One of my biggest buying days to date.

If generational buying opportunities exist, I genuinely believe today was one of them.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

Bullish.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@planA_thru_Z 100%

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

AI bears keep telling us the trade is broken. Here's what would actually concern me.

1. The money behind AI runs out.

OpenAI loses about $11B a quarter and depends on new funding. If investors stop funding it (or Anthropic, or xAI), compute orders get cut.
Watch for: a failed or down-round raise at a big AI lab.

2. Financing gets too expensive.

Neoclouds/HPCs need debt, and with Fed hikes and the 10 yr above 5%, it costs more every quarter. Some can’t fund growth, so they dilute heavily or stall.
Watch for: Future pricing at unsustainable levels

3. GPU oversupply.

If the GPUs once headed for China flood the West, or hyperscalers overbuild, rental prices fall and the neoclouds’ margins compress.
Watch for: H100/B200 rental prices falling 2-3 qrtrs in a row.

4. Hyperscalers cut capex.

#5 is a problem of valuation, positioning, liquidity and time horizon.
Watch for: capex guidance in their next earnings, late January.

5. The mkt simply refuses to reward growth.

Businesses execute, rev compounds, but multiples keep contracting. This can happen for yrs and destroy investor returns w/out the underlying AI thesis ever breaking.

My conclusion:

The first 4 would make me seriously reassess parts of my investment thesis.

#5 is a problem of valuation, positioning, liquidity and time horizon.

Rn I see far more evidence of #2 + #5 than any broad collapse in actual compute demand or fundamentals (I actually see the exact opposite), so I'm still bullish but these are the things I'm watching, not the daily red candles.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@AtlasShrug1 @NighthawkTradez @AllVentured Actually I don’t.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@AtlasShrug1 @NighthawkTradez Happy to take the referrals Uncle John. "Pitiful" to +12% in 4 hrs is a hell of a range tho. Demand 10x capacity, pricing up 3x this yr, IG financing at 7%. Shitty charts, great businesses.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@_Sgr_A_Star 🫡

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@AtlasShrug1 Good one Uncle J. Difference is in 2000 the revenue died. Here it’s still accelerating. Not betting on a snap back, betting on the business and fundamentals to win over time.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@retail_mourinho Sounds easy enough. Thx

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@kevinxu Pretty sure you forgot a major war.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

It’s very important you remember that no one knows what’s going to happen.

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@athuinvests 🫡

[The Chairman's Ledger @ChairmansLedger]

@scludweed Nice. Care to share?