I POST ALL TRADES FOR FREE
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Here’s the link :https://t.co/153xAmLI9X.....
Happy new $NBIS all-time high to everyone! :)
When the stock crashes, I like it more.
When it pumps, I like to think about the risks.
So on a day like today, it's great to think "what could go wrong?"
For the last 2 years I never saw any risks that seriously scared me to be honest.
Over the last couple of months it became clear that there is one risk that we as investors should take serious.
Link to new Substack article in first comment.
The short version is this: I'm not worried about execution, dilution or delays.
I AM worried about potential consolidation. The ecosystem could become more centralized. There are 2 ways how this could happen:
1) The frontier lab, maybe even ONE, frontier lab just starts running away from the rest. This could for example happen if recursive learning "AI building the next AI model" becomes highly effective.
2) The second path how we could get there is regulatory capture. A clear strategy Anthropic is following.
Detailed article on Substack (link in bio / comments).
The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.
Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.
VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.
Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change