ChanceOf.XYZ

Find the chance of xyz happening... Simulate crypto token prices and more. #buildinpublic Join the discord

[Tyler Strejilevich @TylerSCrypto]

🚨BREAKING!!!!!

@GOPMajorityWhip TORCHING Gary Gensler and highlighting his and the SEC's complete and utter failure to protect ANY retail investors whatsoever

And lack of regulatory clarity + hostile enforcement against crypto in the US is pushing innovation offshores including but not limited to China

Gensler should be removed immediately.

#crypto #BTC

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

'Done'. Metalog reader in js for probability to quantile, Newton-Raphson for quantile to probability, HDR 4 Seed PRNG, token volatility REST API generating SIPMath v3 output (docker container), Metatlog reader in solidity. A bit disorganized but getting there. #twitteranniversary

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

https://t.co/wPpjmqghMW

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

I'm verifying my Arweave address 1J0S6PDeSCG-GcrmXUjjXuXQdcCjDzLG5FXS_SlUkQw

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

I'm verifying my Arweave address ijXr7fmNBKDcJupjBSif5NslxHPlaRLjaK-UAL3FkWs

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

sig:0x638a41cdd121e7acc258f6ed2ee95cc8f2e041a68104d4c8dd43d73c78388c886461ff91041b4cb77e85e2fd6970c2a3fdba67705a012295bdead98ebfaeff931b

https://t.co/3LgfYzaQ5f

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

Source: https://t.co/q2dy8KI9wm

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

(shape, shape)

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

It’s ‘probably unlikely to expect certainty’. Does that become a uniform distribution when added? 🤪 https://t.co/GvRJoh3TQu 🚥

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

After fitting a distribution with a metalog it may be used to find the probabilities at given values or values at given probabilities. This is done analytically (ie no simulation required) for virtually any shape. #demo #datascience

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

More on metalogs https://t.co/ClpKldXX5Q

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

Metalog distributions are a one way technology. Once you use them you won’t go back to ‘normal’ distributions.

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

DeFi protocol exploit timing CDF. Are your tokens safe?

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

There are roughly 115 named continuous distributions, each with its own unique algebraic formula, restrictive properties, fitting procedures, and shape-flexibility limitations.

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

Redefining tail risk

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

Once the calling app has chance-data library simulations are easy using hydrate.js. Optionally draw a value for a given probability to find the chances of staying below a threshold. Easy fast and composible. Stackable uncertainty measures.🚥https://t.co/nMuWkKuuOr PRs welcome.

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

A live demo using a chance-data went well today. An API generates historical crypto price distributions for requested tokens and time frame. Used in https://t.co/X9VSWgme6u a hackathon project lead by the talented @moatazelmasry93

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

Here's an example of the returned chance-data. https://t.co/jXAbUfAkbL <-- data will be taken down and replaced rsn.

[ens.eth @ensdomains]

7pm US eastern time on Monday November 8th

That's the time when the ENS governance token $ENS will launch and the token claim website https://t.co/ZGGfGLhdhS will open for claiming.

Watch this Twitter account for the latest info.

See the thread below for more:

[ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ]

Chance-data makes it easy to preserve the shape of uncertainty without needing to lug along a lot of historical data. 🚥