Chantal

[Di Krass @Di_Krass_]

Wall Street doesn't predict prices - it prices the randomness in them. That is where the billions are, and it runs on one equation.

The model trading desks actually use is Geometric Brownian Motion:

dS = μS·dt + σS·dW

μ (drift) is the slow expected trend. σ·dW is the random shock - a coin flip scaled by volatility. It is the engine under Black-Scholes, the formula that prices trillions in options.

The idea is 125 years old. Louis Bachelier modeled prices as a random walk in 1900 - five years before Einstein used the same math for particles. His verdict:

"the mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero."

Sixty years later Eugene Fama won a Nobel for the same finding: prices are "no more predictable than the path of a series of cumulated random numbers."

And the math is brutal. Drift grows with time (t); noise grows only with its square root (√t). Over one day the shock buries the trend - so daily direction is a coin flip, and traders invent reasons after the candle prints.

The trap hides in one assumption: that returns are "normal." Real markets have fat tails. Black Monday 1987 (-22.6% in a day) was a 20-sigma event under the bell curve - impossible in billions of years.

Nassim Taleb calls that bell curve "the great intellectual fraud." The equation that prices everything is blind to the one day it matters most.

the edge was never the trend inside the wiggle. it is knowing how much of the wiggle is nothing. the full quant build is in the article below.

[Di Krass @Di_Krass_]

Every trader believes the chart has a trend to follow. An MIT professor proved the price has no slope at all - not for a single instant.

Choongbum Lee - MIT mathematician, teaching the calculus Wall Street prices options with.

"it's nowhere differentiable... the standard tools of calculus can't be used here."

a stock's path is Brownian motion - the limit of infinite coin flips. it never smooths into a line, so ordinary calculus breaks on it.

to price anything at all, the Street had to invent a new one - Itô calculus - on one rule: dB�� = dt. randomness squared is time. a French student, Bachelier, used it for option prices in 1900 - five years before Einstein used it for atoms.Оці

your edge works the same. the trend you think you are trading is a slope that was never there, and the desk charges you for the noise you mistook for it.

MIT filmed the whole course and left it free. an hour at a chalkboard, and almost nobody has used a line of it.

the edge was never the trend. it is knowing the price has no slope, and charging for the randomness instead. watch it, and don't forget this.

[Jeff Sun, CFTe @jfsrev]

$URA $NLR $URNM have moved into the top-performing 1-month RS% group after today's follow through action.

RS 100% 1-Month Industry Group

$NLR - Nuclear Power
$URA - Uranium
$IAI - Broker-Dealers
$KCE - Capital Markets & Financial Services
$XME - Metals & Mining
$URNM - Uranium Miners
$IPAY - Digital Payments & Fintech
$ARKW - ARK Internet & Next-Gen Tech
$CNBS - Cannabis
$SVIX - Short VIX Futures (Volatility)
$PBE - Dynamic Biotech
$PPH - Large-Cap Pharmaceutical
$SILJ - Junior Silver Miners
$SIL - Silver Miners
$GDXJ - Junior Gold Miners
$GENZ - Global Gaming & Casinos
$GLD - Gold
$GDX - Gold Miners
$SOLZ - Solana Spot
$IBIT - Bitcoin Spot
$COPX - Copper Miners
$ARKF - ARK Fintech
$ARKK - ARK Innovation
$ARKG - ARK Genomics
$BLOK - Blockchain

[Vince Vora @VinceVoraAlpha]

After a healthy pullback and a brief consolidation around the $40 level, $IAUM has reclaimed its 40-week moving average. Looking at the weekly chart, technical indicators are turning supportive as price action sets up a potential test of its previous all-time highs.

[Azraël @azrael_options]

@unusual_whales Housing was the first leg of the rate cycle to break. With sellers stacked like this, prices keep sliding until inventory clears or rates drop hard enough to pull buyers back in.

[Danny @DjokovicFan_]

🚨Novak Djokovic is GUARANTEED to be seeded top 4 at the US Open.

This means he can't play one of Alcaraz or Zverev before the final and neither of them before the semifinal.

Also worth pointing out how incredible it is to be top 4 at 39 years old.

[Danny @DjokovicFan_]

🗣️Goran Ivanisevic on Novak Djokovic:

"Novak refused the COVID vaccine and was ready to stop his career, a decision no other elite athlete would make. He was ready to end his career for this reason. He went all the way just to not get vaccinated. The world condemned him, criticized him relentlessly, even belittled him for standing firm. Yet he never wavered, standing firm in his conviction with a determination that still resonates. We were locked up like sheep for three years and we were manipulated."

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

👇👇👇

[Mark Carney @MarkJCarney]

My statement on Canada-U.S. trade negotiations:

[Chantal @ChantalB85597]

#Australia

[Danny @DjokovicFan_]

Novak Djokovic in his documentary on why he refused the COVID vaccine:

"Because I didn't need it. Why should I get the vaccine? I'm healthy, I'm an athlete. I had corona. I had immunity. I wasn't a threat to anyone. There was no reason for me to get vaccinated. It's my freedom to choose which that fundamental right that you have as a human being on this planet — the freedom to choose — which was taken from a lot of people."

[Chantal @ChantalB85597]

@Jikkyleaks @realDonaldTrump #3tablets #Modernagate #CTCCTCGGCGGGCACGTAG #ENIGMAgate #placentagate #PLASMIDGATE #ECMOgate #NIHgate #BatBumEddie #mousearmy #SprayGate #ClotGate #Pregnagate #ThalidomideViki #DeerGate #CutterGate #BlotGate #Placentagate

[Danny @DjokovicFan_]

Novak Djokovic in his documentary on why he refused the COVID vaccine:

"Because I didn't need it. Why should I get the vaccine? I'm healthy, I'm an athlete. I had corona. I had immunity. I wasn't a threat to anyone. There was no reason for me to get vaccinated. It's my freedom to choose which that fundamental right that you have as a human being on this planet — the freedom to choose — which was taken from a lot of people."

[Danny @DjokovicFan_]

Novak Djokovic in his documentary on why he refused the COVID vaccine:

"Because I didn't need it. Why should I get the vaccine? I'm healthy, I'm an athlete. I had corona. I had immunity. I wasn't a threat to anyone. There was no reason for me to get vaccinated. It's my freedom to choose which that fundamental right that you have as a human being on this planet — the freedom to choose — which was taken from a lot of people."

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

Then why prices went up?

[Chantal @ChantalB85597]

Is there anyone on this planet who would buy that (what Trump said)? We live in a world in which truth does not matter.

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

🔵So… lowering prices benefits ranchers and producers and enables them to build their herds? Even my Econ 101 students wouldn’t buy that.

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

🔵So… lowering prices benefits ranchers and producers and enables them to build their herds? Even my Econ 101 students wouldn’t buy that.

[Ahmad M Khalil 🇺🇸 @AMK_PhD]

Moderna: “we cured cancer”

People: May we see the data from the clinical trials

Moderna: omg you are anti vaxxers

😂😂😂

Stock rally lasted 24 hours 👉

[Chantal @ChantalB85597]

@unusual_whales W.Makis:

1. First person in the world who took Moderna’s mRNA-4157 Cancer vaccine outside of Clinical Trials died recently with no improvement 

2. Moderna’s mRNA Cancer Vaccine is actually 18 to 27 injections (Phase 2 had 27 injections, Phase 3 had 18)

[Chantal @ChantalB85597]

@unusual_whales W.Makis:
4. Moderna didn’t give us any results of their Phase 3 INTerpath-001 Trial & Phase 2 results were underwhelming

5. Merck actually takes 50% of the profit of every Moderna mRNA Cancer Vaccine sold
This was a Big Pharma bot driven news day with no substance whatsoever.