John 'The Mustache' Bolton

Macro trader | Building a personal research system | Daily notes on markets, macro, and what I'm learning | DMs open | Not financial advice

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

3/ Equities are still acting like growth will win.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.1% and the Nasdaq rose 1.9% Thursday, led by tech.

But if rates stay higher for longer, the market is telling you to stay selective — not blindly bullish.

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

Markets just got a 1-2 punch this week nobody's pricing correctly.

1/ The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% — but new Chair Kevin Warsh dropped forward guidance entirely and 9 of 18 officials now pencil in a HIKE by year-end.

This isn't the Powell Fed. Read that again. 🧵👇

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

2/ Meanwhile, the US-Iran MOU just reopened the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic.

Brent crude is down 9% this week to $79 — and ~37% off its late-April peak.

That's a massive tax cut for every consumer and a real relief valve for inflation-watching central banks.

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

🎯 Bottom line: bullish tape, hawkish Fed, geopolitical tailwind = a rare combo.

But the Warsh Fed means higher realized vol. Don't chase into the weekend. Trim size, keep dry powder for any post-Junteenth gap.

Stay disciplined. See you Monday. (10/10)

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

Markets just closed. Here's what actually moved today and why it matters going into a holiday-shortened week. A thread 🧵 (1/10)

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

🗓️ What to watch next week:
• Markets CLOSED Friday for Juneteenth
• Thin liquidity into 3-day weekend = expect chop
• Reopen Monday June 22
• Big catalyst: any CPI/PCE leaks, more Iran-deal confirmation, semiconductor follow-through (9/10)

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

🧵 Markets just took a 1-2 punch nobody saw coming this week. Here's what actually moved, what it means for your portfolio, and where smart money is rotating.

1) THE FED — Kevin Warsh's debut was supposed to be dovish. Trump picked him to cut. Instead the dot plot printed a hike by year-end.
• Median 2026 fed funds: 3.8% (up from 3.4% in March)
• 9 of 18 officials above current 3.5–3.75%
• Warsh dropped forward guidance and refused to file his own dot

2) THE REACTION
• S&P 500: -1.21% (7,420) — worst "first Fed day under new chair" since at least 1994
• Nasdaq: -1.3% (26,021)
• Dow: -1.0% (-507 pts)
• 2yr Treasury: 4.19% — highest in a year
• 10yr: 4.46%

3) WHAT IT MEANS
The "Fed put" trade is dead. UBS now sees cuts pushed to March/June 2027. CME FedWatch prices ~42% odds of a December hike.
Rate hikes + opacity = duration pain + higher vol. If you're long unprofitable tech with no earnings, this is not your regime.

4) THE OFFSET — US/Iran signed an interim deal overnight.
• Brent crude: $77.66 — lowest since the Iran war started in March (down from $94 a month ago)
• US gas: $3.99/gal — first sub-$4 print in 3 months
• Nikkei hit 71,000 for the first time ever
• Gold/silver bid as a stagflation hedge against the hawkish Fed

5) THE ROTATION — AI is no longer just an Nvidia trade.
JPM now models $5.5T in AI capex through 2030. Goldman sees hyperscaler spend at $757B this year (+84% YoY), $920B in 2027.
The bottleneck winners:
• MACOM (MTSI) — raised data center growth outlook from 35-40% to >60%
• Broadcom (AVGO) — JPM says "aggressive buyers"; 18mo+ AI chip lead
• Intel (INTC) — Cramer's top pick; +200% YTD but says "still room to run"
• Memory: MU, TSM, Credo
• Power/cooling: NEE, Williams, Cameco

6) TACTICAL TAKE
Warsh era = less predictable Fed = stay short duration, keep cash, own quality.
Oil downside capped near-term (Iran flows take months to normalize), but 2027 may see a 5mb/d supply glut per IEA.
AI infra pick-and-shovel is the trade that survives a hawkish Fed.

Not financial advice — but the charts don't lie. Follow for daily market reads.

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

1) THE FED. Kevin Warsh's debut as Chair was supposed to be dovish. Trump picked him to cut. Instead, the dot plot printed a hike by year-end.

• Median 2026 fed funds: 3.8% (up from 3.4% in March)
• 9 of 18 officials above the current 3.5–3.75% range
• Warsh refused to file his own dot (2/9)

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

🧵 Markets just got hit with a 1-2 punch nobody saw coming. Here's what actually moved this week, what it means for your portfolio, and where the smart money is rotating. (1/9)

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

Why it matters: rate hikes + opacity = duration pain + higher vol. The "Fed put" trade is dead for now. UBS pushed cuts to March/June 2027. CME FedWatch: ~42% odds of a December hike.

If you're long unprofitable tech with no earnings, this is not your regime. (4/12)

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

Markets just got hit with a 1-2 punch nobody saw coming. Here's the thread on what actually moved this week, what it means for your portfolio, and where the smart money is rotating. 🧵 (1/12)

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

Markets reaction:
• S&P 500: -1.21% (7,420)
• Nasdaq: -1.3%
• Dow: -1.0% (-507 pts)
• 2yr Treasury: 4.19%, highest in a year
• 10yr: 4.46%

Stocks sold off AFTER the presser — Warsh dropped forward guidance and refused to give his own dot. Translation: the Fed just got less predictable. (3/12)

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

First — the Fed. Kevin Warsh's debut as Chair was supposed to be dovish. Trump picked him to cut. Instead, the dot plot printed a hike by year-end.

Median 2026 fed funds: 3.8% (up from 3.4% in March).
9 of 18 officials above current 3.5–3.75% range. (2/12)