3/ Equities are still acting like growth will win.
The S&P 500 jumped 1.1% and the Nasdaq rose 1.9% Thursday, led by tech.
But if rates stay higher for longer, the market is telling you to stay selective β not blindly bullish.
Markets just got a 1-2 punch this week nobody's pricing correctly.
1/ The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% β but new Chair Kevin Warsh dropped forward guidance entirely and 9 of 18 officials now pencil in a HIKE by year-end.
This isn't the Powell Fed. Read that again. π§΅π
2/ Meanwhile, the US-Iran MOU just reopened the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic.
Brent crude is down 9% this week to $79 β and ~37% off its late-April peak.
That's a massive tax cut for every consumer and a real relief valve for inflation-watching central banks.
π― Bottom line: bullish tape, hawkish Fed, geopolitical tailwind = a rare combo.
But the Warsh Fed means higher realized vol. Don't chase into the weekend. Trim size, keep dry powder for any post-Junteenth gap.
Stay disciplined. See you Monday. (10/10)
ποΈ What to watch next week:
β’ Markets CLOSED Friday for Juneteenth
β’ Thin liquidity into 3-day weekend = expect chop
β’ Reopen Monday June 22
β’ Big catalyst: any CPI/PCE leaks, more Iran-deal confirmation, semiconductor follow-through (9/10)
π§΅ Markets just took a 1-2 punch nobody saw coming this week. Here's what actually moved, what it means for your portfolio, and where smart money is rotating.
1) THE FED β Kevin Warsh's debut was supposed to be dovish. Trump picked him to cut. Instead the dot plot printed a hike by year-end.
β’ Median 2026 fed funds: 3.8% (up from 3.4% in March)
β’ 9 of 18 officials above current 3.5β3.75%
β’ Warsh dropped forward guidance and refused to file his own dot
2) THE REACTION
β’ S&P 500: -1.21% (7,420) β worst "first Fed day under new chair" since at least 1994
β’ Nasdaq: -1.3% (26,021)
β’ Dow: -1.0% (-507 pts)
β’ 2yr Treasury: 4.19% β highest in a year
β’ 10yr: 4.46%
3) WHAT IT MEANS
The "Fed put" trade is dead. UBS now sees cuts pushed to March/June 2027. CME FedWatch prices ~42% odds of a December hike.
Rate hikes + opacity = duration pain + higher vol. If you're long unprofitable tech with no earnings, this is not your regime.
4) THE OFFSET β US/Iran signed an interim deal overnight.
β’ Brent crude: $77.66 β lowest since the Iran war started in March (down from $94 a month ago)
β’ US gas: $3.99/gal β first sub-$4 print in 3 months
β’ Nikkei hit 71,000 for the first time ever
β’ Gold/silver bid as a stagflation hedge against the hawkish Fed
5) THE ROTATION β AI is no longer just an Nvidia trade.
JPM now models $5.5T in AI capex through 2030. Goldman sees hyperscaler spend at $757B this year (+84% YoY), $920B in 2027.
The bottleneck winners:
β’ MACOM (MTSI) β raised data center growth outlook from 35-40% to >60%
β’ Broadcom (AVGO) β JPM says "aggressive buyers"; 18mo+ AI chip lead
β’ Intel (INTC) β Cramer's top pick; +200% YTD but says "still room to run"
β’ Memory: MU, TSM, Credo
β’ Power/cooling: NEE, Williams, Cameco
6) TACTICAL TAKE
Warsh era = less predictable Fed = stay short duration, keep cash, own quality.
Oil downside capped near-term (Iran flows take months to normalize), but 2027 may see a 5mb/d supply glut per IEA.
AI infra pick-and-shovel is the trade that survives a hawkish Fed.
Not financial advice β but the charts don't lie. Follow for daily market reads.
1) THE FED. Kevin Warsh's debut as Chair was supposed to be dovish. Trump picked him to cut. Instead, the dot plot printed a hike by year-end.
β’ Median 2026 fed funds: 3.8% (up from 3.4% in March)
β’ 9 of 18 officials above the current 3.5β3.75% range
β’ Warsh refused to file his own dot (2/9)
π§΅ Markets just got hit with a 1-2 punch nobody saw coming. Here's what actually moved this week, what it means for your portfolio, and where the smart money is rotating. (1/9)
Why it matters: rate hikes + opacity = duration pain + higher vol. The "Fed put" trade is dead for now. UBS pushed cuts to March/June 2027. CME FedWatch: ~42% odds of a December hike.
If you're long unprofitable tech with no earnings, this is not your regime. (4/12)
Markets just got hit with a 1-2 punch nobody saw coming. Here's the thread on what actually moved this week, what it means for your portfolio, and where the smart money is rotating. π§΅ (1/12)
Markets reaction:
β’ S&P 500: -1.21% (7,420)
β’ Nasdaq: -1.3%
β’ Dow: -1.0% (-507 pts)
β’ 2yr Treasury: 4.19%, highest in a year
β’ 10yr: 4.46%
Stocks sold off AFTER the presser β Warsh dropped forward guidance and refused to give his own dot. Translation: the Fed just got less predictable. (3/12)
First β the Fed. Kevin Warsh's debut as Chair was supposed to be dovish. Trump picked him to cut. Instead, the dot plot printed a hike by year-end.
Median 2026 fed funds: 3.8% (up from 3.4% in March).
9 of 18 officials above current 3.5β3.75% range. (2/12)