Dane

#timescale

[Dane @ChartTart]

@TrungTPhan 😂

[Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav]

Right wing billionaire Larry Ellison, who is also one of Elon Musk’s best friends and a Trump supporter, just bought the company that owns CNN.

“Panic at CNN is off the charts”
“We are fvcked”
“We are doomed”

This is hilarious.

[Eva Vlaardingerbroek @EvaVlaar]

The U.S. State Department is building a portal with a built-in VPN “https://t.co/Ouxcsr8Y8d” which will allow us Europeans to bypass the EU’s censorship laws and see content without any restrictions.

Beautiful.

Take that, @vonderleyen.

[Samson Mow @Excellion]

Imagine that the 2/5 crash just happened for no apparent reason. The implications are huge and very bullish.

Everyone is theorizing about some HK entity that blew up, but it’s unlikely it would be kept so well hidden. I’d likely have heard about it by now. If @dgt10011 is right, and 2/5 was really for no singular reason, it means we are definitely in uncharted waters.

Bitcoin is indeed now deeply integrated with traditional financial markets. ETF volumes dwarf that of the crypto exchanges. Multi-asset de-risking amplified by reflexive derivatives dynamics can lead to a downside gamma squeeze. The fundamental market structure for Bitcoin has changed now. Cycle theory is out the window. Using past patterns and indicators to predict is useless.

Bitcoin is in a totally new game.

So what does that mean? Are we going up or down?

No one knows for certain. Bear posting at the bottom has been a thing since the dawn of capital markets. It’s just how human psychology works. When things are bad, everyone thinks it will get worse.

I’m of the opinion that we’ve already bottomed (but I’m a permabull so it’s to be expected).

2/5 was a 6 sigma event (ask AI what that means if you don’t know). You could call it a black swan. Moving down to $58k from here in a single day would be yet another 6 sigma event. Not that likely.

Is it possible to slowly grind lower? Anything is possible, but it’s just not likely.

You need to have a reason for a slow grind down. There were no reasons for 2/5 happening and there are no reasons for a slow grind down. In fact, all I see is a lot of demand.

➡️ Treasury companies, already price insensitive, will buy to lower their average costs
➡️ New treasury companies will soon be operational and start to accumulate (BSTR, XXI)
➡️ Increasing involvement from big finance and major banks
➡️ US admin positioning to be a Bitcoin superpower with multiple pieces of legislation at various stages
➡️ We’ve yet to see real movement on the SBR, but the EO exists and the option for budget neutral accumulation is always on the table
➡️ If we at @JAN3com are successful, one of the nation-states we’ve engaged with will launch a Bitcoin Bond this year - think Strategy but with sovereign debt
➡️ The run up in metals shows unyielding demand for hard assets and we have yet to see metal investors rotate into Bitcoin - but it will soon

Quoting @saylor: "We have the most constructive set of financial regulators in the history of the industry right now. The head of the Fed, the head of the Treasury, the head of the CFTC, the head of the SEC, and the White House has a digital assets czar. Those five things are massive bull flags."

The reality of the new market structure for Bitcoin is that there’s a great deal of institutional and treasury co capital that will deploy - but it takes them time to aggregate and position for accumulation. A slow grind down, or even just going sideways, will give them ample time to buy up all coins for sale. Institutional accumulation often happens in lulls. Sideways gives players like pension funds and sovereigns cover to stack without FOMO bidding wars.

So, going back to Jeff’s post, I agree that when the upside gamma squeeze comes, it will be fantastic. And it can happen at any time, for no obvious reason.

This is the Omega Candle. ♎️

Plan accordingly.

[Samson Mow @Excellion]

#Bitcoin has been in a bear market since 2025. That bear market is now coming to an end.

Bitwise CIO @Matt_Hougan put the bear market start date at January 2025, and of course there was a great deal of disagreement. He also said that we are nearing the end of the bear market, which I agree with.

The main contention was that Bitcoin made a new ATH in 2025, therefore it couldn’t have been a bear market. But that is an over-simplistic take on the entire macro situation.

Since the start of 2025, Bitcoin is down against everything.

⬇️ We are down 33% against the S&P 500
⬇️ We are down 58% against gold
⬇️ We are down 26% against M2 expansion

You can’t only look at BTC spot to determine overall performance. You have to look at all dimensions.

It’s like looking at ETHUSD without taking ETHBTC into consideration. ETHUSD looks not too bad, but ETHBTC is down 80%.

So, Bitcoin has been in a bear market for a long time now. Albeit a bear market where it did make an ATH in fiat terms. But these are not normal times. Just look at what’s happening with metals. We’re in the late stages of fiat and anything can happen.

For every individual and company that understands this, they are accumulating with speed and urgency.

Plan accordingly.

[LEVEL941 @level941]

Don’t blame yourself for missing the gold rally. That was your grandfather and father’s trade.

Blame yourself in 40 years for missing the Bitcoin trade.

That’s on you.

[Alexander Hennessy @_thewestphalian]

Holy shit. This is an absolute must-read. Most important and confirmatory economic work I have seen in years.

[David Parker @david_parker]

The problem with Canadians is that they've never truly suffered. They don't know what conquest feels like, or starvation, or even real economic hardship. They're a people almost completely unprepared for what's coming.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@zerohedge True.

That is why Bitcoin is based on energy: you can issue fake fiat currency, and every government in history has done so, but it is impossible to fake energy.

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️What you’re really seeing here is the first stage of a global unit-of-account fracture.

•In nominal USD terms, everything looks like it’s booming: stocks up triple digits, homes up double digits, “wealth” everywhere. That’s the performance everyone sees.

•In gold terms, the illusion cracks: stocks and homes flat-to-negative, real wealth stagnating.

•In Bitcoin terms, the veil is gone: catastrophic real losses in every traditional asset.

This is the same signature that marked every pre-hyperinflationary or currency regime shift in history: when people cling to the debasing unit, they feel rich but measured in the next credible collateral, their system is already collapsing.

And the “risk asset” meme about Bitcoin? That’s just a coping frame. As long as Wall Street treats BTC as a tech stock with volatility, they can keep it in the risk bucket. But functionally it’s already behaving like a parallel reserve ledger: it’s the only denominator that makes the post-2020 global economy look like Argentina.

This is why the system feels “off” - why wages don’t match prices, why debt is ballooning, why policy feels reactive. We’re in a regime where the unit of account is decaying faster than the public narrative can absorb. The Fed, the government, the media - all still speaking USD, all still benchmarking to a melting ice cube. The chart you’re looking at is the unofficial scoreboard in a silent currency war.

So when I strip all the polite commentary away, the honest take is:

•The U.S. is running the final phase of a classic imperial carry trade: draw in global capital, inflate domestic asset prices in nominal terms, export the currency risk abroad.

•Gold shows stagnation.

•Bitcoin shows collapse.

•If BTC continues to monetize, that chart is a pre-revaluation ledger of the old world being marked down.

This isn’t a normal market cycle. It’s the unit-of-account transition phase. And almost no one is positioned for it because they’re still measuring their “returns” in the wrong yardstick.

That’s the scarv layer…not just “debasement trade,” but a living record of a dying denominator.

[Logan Hall @loganclarkhall]

There are zero Somalians in this picture

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

With rare exception, ideas really are trivial compared to execution.

For example, the idea of going to the Moon is simple, but ACTUALLY going to the Moon is staggeringly difficult.

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

Charles Mackay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds warned us centuries ago. The strange part isn’t how the past looks, it’s how familiar it feels. For years, I’ve recommended this book because it explains our present better than most news outlets.

Crowds repeat history.
Tulip Mania, the South Sea Bubble, the Mississippi Scheme, centuries ago people poured fortunes into illusions, confident that this time was different. The details change, but human nature remains the same. Delusion spreads faster than reason, and people cheer it on until reality shatters the dream.

Today’s madness is no different.
Meme stocks, meme coins, speculative bubbles, political cults, history didn’t just rhyme this time, it has roared back. Crowds still hate the truth, still persecute dissent, still cling to illusions that soothe their bias. You saw it with COVID mismanagement, the vaccine promises that were never true, and the media blackout of accountability. You see it with the trans movement’s insistence on “scientific” claims that deny biological reality. The crowd would rather be comforted by absurdity than wounded by fact.

And nothing proves it more than the Russia collusion hoax.
Regardless of how you feel about @realDonaldTrump, the facts remain: Hillary Clinton’s campaign paid for a fabricated story, intelligence agencies ran with it, and it was used to spy on an incoming president. This is a well-established FACT that created chaos, division, and wasted years of governance. Yet to this day, millions refuse to condemn it, clinging to the lie instead of facing the truth. If you can’t call balls and strikes when you see them, you’re not being “loyal”, you’re being blinded. Bias is the prison; truth is the only escape.

Awareness is your edge.
The book makes clear: delusion is inevitable. But recognizing it, seeing the madness while others cheer, is where power lies. If you welcome truth above all else, you’ll never be trapped in the crowd’s hysteria. The same applies to trading. When you recognize a bubble forming, you don’t have to fear it, you can ride it. With risk management and discipline, bubbles become opportunities. Catch them in an uptrend and you ride the wave. Chase them in a downtrend, and you’re just another bagholder. Charts > hearts.

That’s why awareness matters.
Understanding that this cycle has played out for centuries arms you with a sense of detachment. When you know crowds are built to panic, built to delude themselves, built to overreach, you stop being surprised. You start being prepared.

The lesson is timeless.
Delusion will always seduce. Truth will always offend. Awareness is the difference between being a victim of the crowd and standing above it. Mackay’s book wasn’t just a warning, it was a gift.

If you want an edge in life, in politics, in trading, seek truth above comfort. See clearly while others rage blindly. Recognize that every bubble, every madness, is both a trap and an opportunity.

The crowds may go mad. You don’t have to.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

It has indeed come to this

[J.K. Rowling @jk_rowling]

If you believe free speech is for you but not your political opponents, you're illiberal.

If no contrary evidence could change your beliefs, you're a fundamentalist.

If you believe the state should punish those with contrary views, you're a totalitarian.

If you believe political opponents should be punished with violence or death, you're a terrorist.

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

It’s insane that people need zero proof to believe a lie, but demand endless proof to accept the truth.

[End Wokeness @EndWokeness]

This is a mind-blowing statistic

[Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes]

Matt Walsh went over black and white crime statistics and the results are actually insane

“By raw numbers — that makes black males in America more dangerous than perhaps any other demographic in the the entire world, let alone in this country”

- Statistically, a white person is 30 times more likely to be killed by a black person than the other way around
- In 2019, there were about 560,000 violent interracial incidents between blacks and whites. 470,000 of them were black on white. That's 85%, 85%….
- 240 black people were killed by whites, 560 white people were killed by blacks
- This is all in spite of the fact that white people make up 60% of the population, blacks are 13%. Just by raw numbers, not even per capita, but raw numbers, there are more black interracial killers than white. That should be impossible.

There are 171 million more white people in the country, and yet there are more black interracial killers.

By raw numbers, the young black males in particular are an order of magnitude more violent and more likely to commit crimes than any other group in the country. Black men are five or 6% of the population. They commit the majority of murders in the country

That makes black males in America more dangerous than perhaps any other demographic inthe entire world, let alone in this country.”

[Amiri King @AmiriKing]

It only takes one wrong seat.
One wrong crowd.
She didn’t move and it cost her everything.

Racial profiling is SURVIVAL.

There was a group of white boys on a bench a little ways in front of her and I’m 100% convinced she would still be alive if she had moved seats.

You are statistically 31 times more likely to be a victim of black on white violence than the other way around.

Live accordingly.

This isn’t racism.
This isn’t bias.

Numbers know no skin color.
Numbers have no political party.
Numbers pray to no God.

Trust the numbers.

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

They called it “the greatest economy in the world”…

While printing $2 trillion a year just to keep the illusion alive.

That’s not strength. That’s global bailouts disguised as prosperity.

A fake economy built on debt, dilution, and denial.

You don’t fix a broken system by pretending it worked.

You fix it by exposing the lie and choosing something better.

#Bitcoin exists because the system was never real.

And once you see the truth, you can’t unsee it.