ChartarianDelight

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. 10 yrs slingin commodities. Journal for my brain. Markets and consciousness. I hunt algo's, greed, and bad policy. Do your own DD

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

Going to take this account back to my bread and butter which is fertilizer markets and the commodities that drive them. Lot of misinformation out there these days. 12 years of global markets you learn a thing or two happy to share. #urea #uan #nh3 #dap #map

[Karel Mercx @KarelMercx]

The Strait of Hormuz is truly closed now.

Never before have there been this many days with zero tanker crossings. See the chart.

For every $1 spent on physical oil/refined products, $83 sits in financial oil derivatives.

The oil market is pricing this completely wrong.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

"Professor, don't you find it curious that a new US-Iran peace deal leaks almost every time the 10y UST yield breaks 4.4% on the upside?"

"Actually, if I think about it, I don't find it curious at all."

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@GlobalMacroZen its been blatant for over a year, they were doing it back when the tariff headlines were a thing. This market broke a long time ago, going to be painful when that fact gets priced in.

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

India confirms 2.5MM tons as expected. Nola Urea at $650/st too cheap, you can ship to India for at least $790/st based on where tender values were. May see vessels divert away from US unless Nola rallies to close the gap. #Urea #fertilizer

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

High prices like we are seeing ultimate result in demand destruction. 3rd world countries simply cannot afford to pay these levels. Anyone who can defer purchasing to later will, but most of the N hemisphere is in prime planting windows and will proceed with purchases. App rates may be reduced but it’s tough because growers still need to maximize yield to attempt a profit.

Nola Urea at $650 looks very cheap at the moment.

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

#urea markets still waiting on the outcome of the India urea tender. 2.5-2.8mm tons offered with prices at an eye watering $935-959/ ton. Highest price in the world, if they take all 2.5mm it will soak up the vast majority of available supply for the next 2 months leaving other buyers scrambling

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

Fun fact 4/20:

30% of global nitrogen trade transits the Straight of Hormuz. Especially urea and nh3 (ammonia)

Hence why N fertilizer prices have shot through the roof post Iran conflict.

#fertilizers #urea #nitrogen #nh3

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@JLinvilleFert What exactly are you implying?

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@ClownWorld Nothing to lose

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@RockBtmEntries @contrarian8888 The wild part is fert pricing is still relatively high vs corn. Yes gas is a cost side pressure for producers but seems like they overdone it a bit.

Much depends on China and how much urea they plan on exporting next year.

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@spotgamma This was one of the more obvious ones but this type of behavior has been occurring since 21 imho. Right after the initial gme squeeze and the Tesla gamma rip.

Different than the usual stop hunting game this is a hijack and lucrative. I’ve long suspected MMs but who knows

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@JPATrades @BlackBoxStocks @VolSignals

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@agnostoxxx I’m running out of bingo card contra that indicate a market calamity is due

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@VolSignals As someone in this space this is big lol

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@elonmusk The great paradox

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

Top 60% of earners own 68% of market top 20% own 50%. Topn20 also are the “producers”. Lower incomes means bottom 40% own less stock= less influence. Meanwhile producers (top 20%) make more and can invest more. Shifts their % of ownership higher, they’ll plow this money back into stonks via buybacks and increase share further. Ponzi pro plus.

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@VolSignals Too optimistic but probably an opportunity to unwind it in 30 days.

[ChartarianDelight @Chart_Slinger]

@VolSignals 5905