🚨 THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE
I’ve been analyzing this for the last 24 hours and this is VERY BAD.
World silver production: ~800M ounces
BofA & Citi shorts: 4.4 BILLION
I’ve spent two decades in macro, and I thought I had seen it all.
I WAS WRONG.
If silver keeps going up, the biggest banks in america will collapse.
Here’s what I uncovered:
Yesterday, silver hit $92. Then it dropped over 6% in a few minutes, pumped back up to around $91, and now it’s crashing again.
I’ve spent 20 years in these markets. Most people see a normal correction, but I see a TRAP.
At $90/oz, their combined short position is now a ~$390 BILLION liability.
That’s larger than the market cap of most global banks.
This is literally survival. The banks are doing everything they can to stay afloat.
WHY THE DIP TO $86 OVERNIGHT?
They had to do it. If silver had broken $100 yesterday, margin calls would have liquidated those banks.
They unloaded paper contracts during thin overnight liquidity to FORCE THE PRICE DOWN.
But look closer at the physical market:
While the paper price dropped $6, lease rates just went vertical.
The cost to borrow physical silver is skyrocketing.
We are in BACKWARDATION.
Spot Price > Futures Price.
It means people don’t want paper promise in 6 months, they want the metal NOW.
THE MATH IS TERMINAL:
We know the shorts are 4.4B ounces.
We know annual mining is ~800M ounces.
But at $90+, the recycling supply dries up because people hoard.
And industrial demand (AI chips, solar, EVs) is inelastic, they must buy at any price to keep factories running.
BofA and Citi aren't just short the metal, they’re short the industrial revolution.
THE "FORCE MAJEURE" IS NEXT
I warned you 2 weeks ago about "cash settlement."
It’s already starting in the wholesale markets.
Dealers are quoting unavailable or 6-week delays for volume delivery.
When the price snaps back above $92, and it will, it won't stop at $100.
It will gap to $150 overnight when the first major short declares force majeure.
THE TWO MARKETS ARE DETACHING:
1. Screen Price ($88): A fiction maintained by algorithms.
2. Street Price: Unobtainable.
They’re shaking the tree one last time to get your physical…
BUT DO NOT SELL.
We are witnessing the death of the paper derivative market in real-time.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the commodities supercycle.
How do I know all of this?
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
I'm seeing quite a bit of comment about this, so I want to make a couple of points.
I'm not owed eternal agreement from any actor who once played a character I created. The idea is as ludicrous as me checking with the boss I had when I was twenty-one for what opinions I should hold these days.
Emma Watson and her co-stars have every right to embrace gender identity ideology. Such beliefs are legally protected, and I wouldn't want to see any of them threatened with loss of work, or violence, or death, because of them.
However, Emma and Dan in particular have both made it clear over the last few years that they think our former professional association gives them a particular right - nay, obligation - to critique me and my views in public. Years after they finished acting in Potter, they continue to assume the role of de facto spokespeople for the world I created.
When you've known people since they were ten years old it's hard to shake a certain protectiveness. Until quite recently, I hadn't managed to throw off the memory of children who needed to be gently coaxed through their dialogue in a big scary film studio. For the past few years, I've repeatedly declined invitations from journalists to comment on Emma specifically, most notably on the Witch Trials of JK Rowling. Ironically, I told the producers that I didn't want her to be hounded as the result of anything I said.
The television presenter in the attached clip highlights Emma's 'all witches' speech, and in truth, that was a turning point for me, but it had a postscript that hurt far more than the speech itself. Emma asked someone to pass on a handwritten note from her to me, which contained the single sentence 'I'm so sorry for what you're going through' (she has my phone number). This was back when the death, rape and torture threats against me were at their peak, at a time when my personal security measures had had to be tightened considerably and I was constantly worried for my family's safety. Emma had just publicly poured more petrol on the flames, yet thought a one line expression of concern from her would reassure me of her fundamental sympathy and kindness.
Like other people who've never experienced adult life uncushioned by wealth and fame, Emma has so little experience of real life she's ignorant of how ignorant she is. She'll never need a homeless shelter. She's never going to be placed on a mixed sex public hospital ward. I'd be astounded if she's been in a high street changing room since childhood. Her 'public bathroom' is single occupancy and comes with a security man standing guard outside the door. Has she had to strip off in a newly mixed-sex changing room at a council-run swimming pool? Is she ever likely to need a state-run rape crisis centre that refuses to guarantee an all-female service? To find herself sharing a prison cell with a male rapist who's identified into the women's prison?
I wasn't a multimillionaire at fourteen. I lived in poverty while writing the book that made Emma famous. I therefore understand from my own life experience what the trashing of women's rights in which Emma has so enthusiastically participated means to women and girls without her privileges.
The greatest irony here is that, had Emma not decided in her most recent interview to declare that she loves and treasures me - a change of tack I suspect she's adopted because she's noticed full-throated condemnation of me is no longer quite as fashionable as it was - I might never have been this honest.
Adults can't expect to cosy up to an activist movement that regularly calls for a friend's assassination, then assert their right to the former friend's love, as though the friend was in fact their mother. Emma is rightly free to disagree with me and indeed to discuss her feelings about me in public - but I have the same right, and I've finally decided to exercise it.
@AlexHormozi i’m so so sorry man - lost my mother a few years back - she is always with you brotha - always - love you and all the work you do…you are an inspiration and your mother died a very proud woman - may she rest in peace
@PropertyPMC i am a tenant at 915 main st Hartford CT - elevators have been out for a month! i don’t understand how a multimillion dollar property management company can’t find resources/services to fix the elevators properly! 0/3 elevators work in a 9 story building!
@IsabellaMDeLuca@HushyHelp $10/lb for ground beef even if it’s organic is outrageous - shouldn’t be paying more than $5 tops - you’re getting ripped off
The October surprise is WW3. Meanwhile Biden looks like a piece of flotsam that washed up on Rehoboth Beach and Kamala Harris is too scared to do a press conference. Get these jokers out of there. The election is over. January 20 can’t come soon enough.