Chico

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

@SetlistCapital Hahaha...another announcement for Fireside chat incoming

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

$CRBU has now repeated "exploring multiple options" to fund vispa-cel's pivotal trial in back-to-back releases (Mar 5, May 7) same wording, zero specifics, 4 months running. Something needs to materialize soon.

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

@SetlistCapital A lot of volume traded at close.. hope something announced soon

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

Crucial 2 weeks for $CRBU post EHA and with Pfizer's information rights due to expire June 29... If no move made by Pfizer then what?

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

@ahenryokc $crbu only realistic option now is a partnership or complete buyout..and it needs to happen soon if they want to get a phase 3 trial underway. Otherwise we might see them ice vispa-cel and pray cb-11 data matures favorably

[Yair Einhorn @yaireinhorn]

1/🚨WOW! $CRBU has just presented an updated clinical data from its ongoing CB-011 CaMMouflage phase 1 clinical trial in cancer patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (r/r MM). The CB-011 CaMMouflage phase 1 clinical data which was presented at the 2026 European Hematology Association Annual Meeting - #EHA2026, demonstrated deep and durable responses and further supports the potential of CB-011 as a best-in-class allogeneic CAR-T Cell Therapy for second-line relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma patients. $XBI 🧵👇

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

@dadbodfamilyguy Agree, too many months are drifting by without a deal. This latest data should be the trigger to finalise any potential offers out there. I dont think $CRBU can be greedy at this stage

[DadBodFamilyGuy @dadbodfamilyguy]

$CRBU. Not financial advice, do your own DD.

Here is the unadjusted math on what a best-in-class sweep of the 2L LBCL market actually looks like.

1. The Real Total Addressable Market (TAM)
• Patient Population: In the US alone, roughly 10,000 to 12,000 patients with Large B-Cell Lymphoma (LBCL) progress to the second-line setting each year. Factoring in major international markets (EU5 and Japan), the accessible patient pool is approximately 20,000 to 25,000 patients annually.
• Pricing: Current autologous CAR-Ts (like Yescarta and Breyanzi) are priced around $400,000 to $500,000 per infusion. Assuming an allogeneic therapy comes in at a highly competitive $350,000 to $400,000 price point, the global TAM for 2L LBCL is $8 billion to $10 billion annually.

2. The "Beating Class" Penetration Rate
Currently, autologous CAR-Ts only capture about 25% of the eligible 2L LBCL market. This is not due to a lack of efficacy, but due to severe logistical constraints: the therapies are confined to elite academic centers, and manufacturing wait times mean many patients progress or die before the cells are ready.
If vispa-cel beats the class, it eliminates both constraints. It can be stocked in the community hospital network and infused immediately. In a scenario where an off-the-shelf therapy becomes the default standard of care, a market penetration rate of 40% to 50% is highly realistic.
• 50% of a $8 Billion TAM = $4 Billion in Peak Global Revenue.

3. Breaking the Autologous Revenue Ceiling
For context, Gilead’s Yescarta generated roughly $1.5 billion in global sales in 2023 across all its approved indications. That $1.5 billion represents a logistical ceiling, not a demand ceiling.

A best-in-class allogeneic therapy wouldn't just take market share from Yescarta; it would expand the market entirely by reaching the 75% of "have-nots" who currently default to less effective salvage chemotherapy or bispecific antibodies because they cannot access an academic transplant center.

The True Upside
If the upcoming EHA data confirms that the durability of vispa-cel rivals autologous options, the multi billion target is simply a floor. A best-in-class, off-the-shelf CAR-T that successfully penetrates the community oncology network represents a $3 billion to $5 billion peak annual revenue opportunity in the 2L LBCL setting alone—and that is before factoring in label expansions into earlier lines of therapy or other hematologic indications.

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

@SetlistCapital Could be Legend Bio in-vivo phase 1 data for lymphoma dragging this down. Had 100% ORR on 6 patients. Although very early days and no duration data. Im still holding on to $CRBU pretty sure the data will be good next week.

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

If $CRBU's data continues to hold up, don't be surprised if $LLY wanted a piece — it would de-risk their Kelonia acquisition and potentially anchor a best-in-class moat in Multiple Myeloma.

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

@ahenryokc @dadbodfamilyguy Agree, I think if you read between the lines from $CRBU 's recent presentations we should expect a continuation of positive data.

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

$CRBU Worth a listen. Interesting to hear they currently intend to be able to push vispa-cel across the line on their own from a regulatory perspective and CB-11 more suited to a partnership model (28mins in)

[Caribou Biosciences @CaribouBio]

Don’t miss our upcoming fireside chat with our president and CEO, Rachel Haurwitz, PhD, at the @BankofAmerica Securities Health Care Conference.

Tune into the webcast here: https://t.co/Grc0855r7D #CellTherapy #CRISPR $CRBU

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

@ahenryokc A lot of patience required, fundamentally mispriced. Atleast a few catalysts coming which could spark more interest.

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

Seems like every time $crbu gets above $2 someone puts some ice on it.

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

"Our pivotal trial will compare vispa-cel to standard-of-care regimens that lack curative intent yet are often the only options available to the 75% of second-line large B cell lymphoma patients who do not receive autologous CAR-T cell therapy" this is good news for $CRBU

[Caribou Biosciences @CaribouBio]

We reported that we achieved alignment with the FDA regarding the vispa-cel pivotal trial design. Read more about this business update and our first quarter 2026 financial results here: https://t.co/DVMEsghfvi #CellTherapy #CRISPR $CRBU

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

$JNJ drops its CD19/CD20 both auto CAR-T programs in LBCL citing portfolio priorities & shifting landscape. Could they be looking to acquire an 'off the shelf' treatment?

[Chico @ChicoMendes87]

🔥 $LLY paying $2B+ for Kelonia a next-gen allogeneic CAR-T company is massive validation for the whole space.
$CRBU Market cap? ~$212M with 2 RMAT designations doesn't make sense

[DadBodFamilyGuy @dadbodfamilyguy]

$CRBU

Allogene’s April 13th ALPHA3 interim data is a watershed moment for the entire cell therapy sector. Allogene has effectively validated the "off-the-shelf" allogeneic approach. This proves that donor-derived CAR-T can intervene early, prevent relapse, and rival personalized autologous treatments without the severe neurological toxicities.

Because the underlying allogeneic mechanism is now heavily de-risked by proxy, Caribou Biosciences is operating in a significantly altered M&A and partnership landscape.

Here is the updated strategic outlook.

* **Vispa-cel (CB-010):** The ANTLER Phase 1 data proved efficacy (86% ORR, 63% CR) on par with autologous therapies, but its lack of severe ICANS (neurotoxicity) makes it uniquely viable for outpatient community clinics. The immediate catalyst is the final FDA alignment on a pivotal, randomized Phase 3 trial design for second-line large B-cell lymphoma.
* **CB-011:** Fresh off its March 31st FDA RMAT designation, this anti-BCMA therapy for multiple myeloma is showing a 92% ORR in early expansion. Crucially, its immune-cloaking approach—which does not rely on HLA matching—simplifies scalability and broadens the addressable patient population.

## Acquisition / Buyout Scenario
* **Valuation & Quota Size Estimates:** Caribou’s current market capitalization has been severely depressed, hovering around the $190M–$250M range, making it highly vulnerable to a buyout. A Phase-3 ready oncology asset combined with a clinically validated CRISPR chRDNA platform warrants a significant premium. A realistic acquisition quota size sits between **$1.2 billion and $2.0 billion**.
* **Timelines:** Q3 2026 through Q1 2027. Big Pharma knows the window to acquire allogeneic platforms cheaply is closing. Caribou becomes a prime target right now, before Phase 3 initiation significantly raises their capital requirements and subsequent valuation.

## Partnership Scenario
* **Deal Type & Size Estimates:** To fund the costly vispa-cel Phase 3 trial independently, Caribou needs a top-tier commercial partner. Expect a co-development or regional commercialization deal featuring **$100 million to $150 million in upfront cash**, accompanied by $1 billion+ in biobucks (clinical, regulatory, and sales milestones), plus tiered double-digit royalties.
* **Timelines:** Short-term. A partnership is highly likely by the end of Q3 2026 to secure the cash runway necessary for the Phase 3 launch and the broader CB-011 expansion cohorts.

## Likely Partners and Acquirers
The most aggressive bidders will be legacy cell-therapy giants who currently dominate the autologous market but desperately need an off-the-shelf hedge to protect their franchises from the advancements of Allogene and Caribou.
1. **Gilead Sciences (Kite Pharma):** They own the autologous market with Yescarta but face immense logistical bottlenecks. Acquiring Caribou’s platform gives them a ready-made pipeline suited for community oncology centers.
2. **Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS):** With Breyanzi (CD19) and Abecma (BCMA), their portfolio perfectly overlaps with Caribou’s targets. Acquiring vispa-cel and CB-011 would cannibalize their own autologous sales long-term, but it is a necessary defensive maneuver.
3. **Novartis:** The original pioneer of CAR-T (Kymriah) has lost ground to Gilead and BMS. They have the balance sheet and the strategic imperative to leapfrog back to the front of the line via an advanced allogeneic platform.
4. **Pfizer:** Having originally spun out Allogene, Pfizer may look to aggressively re-enter the allogeneic CAR-T space by acquiring a next-generation CRISPR-edited platform.

[Ahenryokc @ahenryokc]

75 days (including weekends) before $PFE ROFN on $CRBU CB-012 expires. Hopefully that brings along some competitive tension over the next couple months. Good luck longs.