Chiko

the winner takes it all

[Chiko @Chiko_wav]

I lost most of my port being tilted

Made a ton and then gave it all back

Time to neck

[fejau @fejau_inc]

yeah so basically trump got cocky after succeeding with venezuela and had a hot hand and decided to double down and strike iran in february thinking they could take over the country in a couple of weeks despite everyone telling him it was a bad idea and would drag on

nothing really happened and then Iran learned that they can actually close the strait of hormuz and were unsure if it would even work but now its become obvious they can do it and feel empowered. the iranians have a longer history as a culture and are slow walking trump as much as possible as they know that higher oil prices are going to ruin his odds in the midterms and weaken him

not only that but now higher energy prices are putting upward pressure on inflation and bond yields which has made the job of his new fed chair warsh who came in under a premise of potential rate cute but because of the iran war were entering a rate hiking cycle

the only person in the room who was trying to juggle all of this was scott bessent but after trying to juggle everything for so long he decided he was going to try and fight the bond vigilantes to lower bond yields and declared himself as the house. but he showed up to the bond fight with hardly any ammunition and now the bond market is calling his bluff and now the bond auctions are going terrible and he looks like a fool now

so now bond yields are surging export bans on diesel are being put in place as an act of desparation midterms are a total write off and the trump admin is about to spend the next two years probably fighting impeachment hearings while things continue to detoriorate and the funny thing about all of this is he won the presidency off the idea of no more foreign wars but its his own foreign war with iran that started this whole mess and now the free market is testing them all

[Stoic @Stoiiic]

developing intuition for markets requires a lot of blood, sweat and tears as well as a ridiculous amount of resilience but once you develop somewhat of a "gut feel" which is hard to explain to others and can sense the rhythm and tempo of the market as well as understand certain behaviors that repeat, some of the pieces start to come together.

for some people, this is a lot more natural.

I've spoken to some of the best in the space behind the scenes and through recorded discussions I used to host (won't call it a podcast because that term has been muddied),

and I found that people who played certain PvP or strategy games competitively early or were professional or semi-professional poker players at some point have a starting point that is way ahead compared to others because of the way they have internalized betting on outcomes and risk management.

some thoughts on how you can attempt to close this gap:

> "life is poker, not chess" - Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke is a great book btw.

think in probabilities, not predictions

understand how to utilize bayesian thinking and keep working that muscle tirelessly.

> size small and get reps.

poker players learn fast because they play thousands of hands, you can't build intuition or pattern recognition by limiting the feedback loop.

take a ton of low risk shots so this learning loop can be faster.

> journal and review like game film.

competitive gamers rewatch their losses, you need to be aggressive with understanding early on what it is that drives you, how you react to certain stimuli, and how you make decisions when under pressure or when you feel like everything is going against you or for you.

> separate quality of decision from outcome.

a good bet can lose and a bad bet can win. this part is dangerous because you can have a shit process but piece together wins.

Ultimately you will rise or fall to the level of your system.

always focus on the process.

[Chiko @Chiko_wav]

if you assume that this was a leverage cleanse just then

and that we’re still bullish for a bit more continuation

then i think Lit could look pretty great right now

i’m long

hope i dont get fucked

[Chiko @Chiko_wav]

@TraderMorin very true

if anything sometimes almost expecting a retest (and longing the retest) is given

[Chiko @Chiko_wav]

@Stoiiic it’s a bit weird because yeah this cycle any performing alt clearly front runs btc

so the OI is going directly to those alts first

[michael @paik_michael]

bitcoin chart looks like all the noise in the past month will be long forgotten and won't matter where we're headed

won't jump the gun, but i am feeling an excitement again i haven't felt in years

the real party and fun hasn't begun

hope the warmup and practice has been good

[Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 @theunipcs]

Robinhood Chain eco bottoming the exact day i get back on X would be pretty cool, wouldn't it?

i think the ppl buying these Robinhood Chain dips right now are going to look like absolute geniuses in a few weeks/months

the best entries always look the worst in real time

all you have to do is buy the dips and HODL

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

$1,000 invested at every major "Bitcoin is dead" call would be worth:

• 2011, Forbes: $4,922,700
• 2014, Warren Buffett: $127,400
• 2017, Jamie Dimon: $20,700
• 2018, Warren Buffett: $8,800
• 2019, Donald Trump: $7,300
• 2022, European Central Bank: $5,000
• 2023, Charlie Munger: $3,550
• 2024, European Central Bank: $1,700

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Why wouldn't we make a new ATH?

[Chiko @Chiko_wav]

@andyyy chad

[Andy @andyyy]

I fucking love DonAlt’s swagger right now.

Dude came back after a long hiatus & aped massive size right at the lows and just relentlessly mocked all the sidelined people on CT for the last two months straight.

Unreal tbh

[Innerdevcrypto @Innerdevcrypto]

When market is extremely bullish, one wants to be careful loading into perps/leverage trades too heavily following the herd that is now finally turning bullish a bit late...

Better strategy in my humble opinion is to attempt leverage on the breakout, with sl just below it, if it breaks out, big gain, if hit sl, small loss, and slowly deleverage on the way up

Then if you are not sure if market remains extremely bullish or is ready for a correction, like right now for example, one can put profit from perps into more spot so still stay exposed but with less risk

All sounds very basic...i know...but many here do not appear to understand the basics

Again, certain charts still look fantastic imo: just some examples
zec & pump look ready for next leg up
eigen looks ready to get moving
pengu & xrp ready to push hard
aave looks great

there are more, so keep paying attention

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

crypto is gradually approaching the part of the cycle where the dumbest people you know start making way more money than you

can't wait.

[pepeXBT @pepeXBT]

2020-2025: crowd expected too much
2025-2030: crowd expects too little

[Chiko @Chiko_wav]

@TraderMorin these trend lines are so arbitrary bro

[Chiko @Chiko_wav]

@alpha_pls a problem i’m seeing right now is there are too many people who own a significant % of onchain coins

like more than 2%

and quantity of people owning more than 1% is too high too

idk what can do about this

[Aylo @alpha_pls]

One of the things I have changed my mind on this cycle is that meme coin trading is a fad or short lived phenomena.

It's not.

I thought it was a solved game, but the variance due to internet culture seems to keep the game going, alongside the addictive nature of gambling.

I am actually not a fan of gambling, and have a close family member who suffers from this addiction, but I accept that millions of people want to/need to gamble for various reasons: entertainment, desire to elevate one's station, desperation, boredom etc.

The lottery has atrocious odds, but it is the gambling game that the majority of the world have played for almost the last 100 hundred years. If you add up the combined sum a regular person has lost in their life playing the lottery is significant. It is kind of like a tax on poor people.

The internet + blockchains have enabled digital slot machines/lottery games in the form of infinite token creation. The dopamine hits that come with this form of gambling are the strongest of any gambling game imo.

No matter how much you hate this it is simply not going away.

You now have many ways to invest in the underlying infrastructure related to this form of internet gambling. Last cycle the cleanest proxy was SOL.

This time around you have launchpads with differing mechanisms that allow the game to be played in different ways.

Some are more aligned with their holders than others, but all are seeing rising interest and adoption metrics.

Other opportunities remain in the private markets like FOMO, but they possibly may airdrop one day who knows.

The activity will ebb and flow with manic peaks and big lows as the the flows are carried by speculation seen in other areas of the market, becoming more liquid as wealth trickles into onchain gambling.

Again, hating on this is futile. You are better off ignoring it if it bothers you. Gambling is big business in the real world, and there are extremely profitable businesses in that sector.

Everyone loses on slot machines in Vegas, and yet the people keep coming back to play them with the hope of hitting it big one day.

There is a lot of total bullshit happening with KOLs, and bundling etc. I am not condoning that at all. And I steer away from that completely, and encourage you to do so as well.

Redacted people are going to do redacted things even though they actually know they are being robbed and scammed. You can't stop this.

You don't have to speculate on a single individual memecoin coin, and I actually don't think it is +EV to do so.

But it's clear there are going to be giant onchain internet gambling infra winners here, and you can capture that opportunity if you want to.

[Chiko @Chiko_wav]

@DonAlt there are still bears on my timeline bro

[Chiko @Chiko_wav]

@bagsheera at this point you’re a counter trade signal