People say greed drives markets.
The last 25 year data says fear is stronger.
Since 2000, Nifty has seen:
• 3,532 green days vs 3,016 red days.
• Average green day: +0.91%
• Average red day: -0.95%
And when volatility expands:
• 140 crash days (>3% down) vs 114 stairs-up days (>3% up).
• Top 20 down days: -7.5% average.
• Top 20 up days: +7.0% average.
More green days.
Bigger red days.
You are a trader.
1.Journal every trade
2.Walk away after a loss
3.Risk 1% or less
4.Cut losses fast
5.Let winners run
6. Trust your setup, not your emotions
7. Trade the plan, not the mood
8.Stop after your daily loss limit
9. Trade less, wait more
10. Protect your capital first
11. Avoid impulsive entries
Your account is 100% your responsibility.
This Nifty data has really surprised me:
Since 2000, Nifty has grown nearly 15x.
But if you had missed just the:
• Best 5 trading days → returns drop to 9.3x
• Best 30 trading days → returns fall to 2.4x
• Best 50 trading days → you're left with almost no returns.
That's less than 1% of all trading days doing almost all the heavy lifting.
The interesting part? Many of these biggest rallies came right after sharp sell-offs, when most participants had already exited.
That's why I show up to the market with a clean setup every single day. You never know when one of those days arrives.
Everytime there is a buy figure by the FIIs, everytime there is a intraday recovery from the lows, there are yells of ATHs by Xperts, influencers, MFs, PMSs, and analysts on blue channels and pink papers.
Infact the yells have turned into dark desperation for the Nifty to cross 26k, and that too within this calandar year.
If I purely view the bullish vs bearish calls, it clearly outweighs by a ratio of 10:1
I won't blame them. SIP book keeps getting stronger, AUMs keep getting deeper and number of demat accounts keep getting wider.
This wide spread optimism on Dalal street is enough for me to conclude that ATHs may not come for the foreseable future.
Remember, the more we want something the more it slips away from us, and with 10 years of consecutive positive returns, one negative year should not come as a surprise.
Remember, bear markets is not a bug, but a feature of equity markets.
Fundamentally too, after the recent correction in Asian markets, India yet agains becomes the most expensive major equity market globally.
The recent inflation numbers do not inspire confidence. The IMD's projection of a dull monsoon further dents the equity markets upside.
The ones hoping for cheaper EMIs will have to wait until 2027 for rate cuts, as RBI will have to approach a wait and watch game for the rest of 2026.
Oil on the brink of breaking above $80 is another macro negative for the country.
Vacationing ministers, strange government statements, and a cabinet that works only during elections means that a major pillar of the Indian economy is already punctured.
Under this scenario my best case is that we remain range bound between 23-25k, and worst case remains at 21k to complete a official -20% bear handle.
With the IT cuts, GST mahotsav, and premature rate cuts, the government is out of bullets, so expect nothing out of New Delhi except optical feel good statements.
The consumer spending remains the only backbone as we enter the festive season beggining in Aug.
However, all is not lost. Over the past two years we have seen stealth bull runs in various sectors — defense, PSUs, Metals, etc, and more recently the anti monsoon trade (AC stocks).
If you are agile enough to idenifty such moves, then you will be handsomely rewarded, but expecting anything more than FD returns on the index will be extremely tough.
I expect FIIs to continue dump India and hunt for greener pastures.
TL:DR — While the majority expects ATH and are ready with their rocket emojis, iam still obstinately in the camp that we will be lower than current levels by the end of 2026.
Peace ✌️
The traders who last the longest all have one thing in common. They stopped trying to be right and started trying to be consistent. Being right feels good. Being consistent builds accounts.
#Nifty
Asain Markets closed in Red.
US trading in Red.
Gifty down now.
And you think NIFTY closed in Greens against all odds because our market is strong?
It’s being controlled by a bunch of Gutka Chap people now.
You are not trading against data, OI, PCR etc, you are trading against these people.
Because fundamentals have left Indian Markets in 2024 only. 🤡