Chins

Scuttlebutt investor, manage a family office.

[Nirvana Laha @nirvana_laha]

Wrote a detailed note for @CongruenceA on PDS Ltd - a unique apparel sourcing services platform. Its one of the very few listed platform plays in apparel sourcing globally that I am aware of. Understanding their business model is definitely worth the time

https://t.co/aWJvAvqIbg

[Chins @Chins1729]

@vineetjain1101 @theHarshFolio Thanks so much, Harsh and Vineet!

[Chins @Chins1729]

Update: demand played spoilsport.

[Chins @Chins1729]

Manganese alloys in the last few months:

Ferro Manganese - INR 68k to 96.5k (up 41%)

Silico Manganese - INR 68k to 96.5k (up 39%)

I'd expect to see large inventory gains in Q1 for alloy companies. Not a reco.

[Chins @Chins1729]

Great long read on the conflict of interest in the AGI Greenpac / HNG acquisition

https://t.co/Z8BiCQs1RW

[Chins @Chins1729]

Shared a long form post on an SME company, New Jaisa:

https://t.co/kblo6tUimS

Not investment advice, wanted to share insights from meeting management and a site visit.

[Chins @Chins1729]

@SwarnashishC @suru27 @theHarshFolio @FalakKalyani @caswapnilkabra @GanatraNandan @nirvana_laha @aditya942000 @StocksAndStoics @anishmoonka @sanjaylangval Thanks for the tag. I have been busy with scuttlebutt and haven't found the time to share any of my work publicly in the last few months. Will try to write more.

[Chins @Chins1729]

@3bagsfulll @vineetjain1101 @dpkbagga @OakbushC From speaking to some of the unlisted camphor guys, it looks like the Camphor demand season only starts in July and peaks in November.

The last time turpentine oil prices had a similar cycle, camphor companies made margins like in 2018-19. I can only wait and watch.

[Chins @Chins1729]

@rahul_603 RM costs lag by a quarter. They'll post gains until the low cost Manganese gets replaced by higher cost RM. If Manganese continues to rise from current prices after June, this cycle should continue into Q2.

[Chins @Chins1729]

MOIL has been in focus for an incredible price hike following the disruption to South32 in Australia. But what about downstream players in Manganese alloys?

Alloys of Ferro-Mn and Silico-Mn have started rallying to the highest price in two years.

1/2

[Sharad Dubey @Sharad9Dubey]

MOIL

Increases prices of all ferro-grades of Manganese Ore by 25-40% for May

[Chins @Chins1729]

@Antifragile_NNT Right now they're still going through headwinds. I'd like to see how quickly this Ted Baker issue can be resolved, and how many deal wins they get in Sourcing and BM going forward. That's the growth bridge.

[Chins @Chins1729]

Manganese alloys in the last few months:

Ferro Manganese - INR 68k to 96.5k (up 41%)

Silico Manganese - INR 68k to 96.5k (up 39%)

I'd expect to see large inventory gains in Q1 for alloy companies. Not a reco.

[Chins @Chins1729]

MOIL has been in focus for an incredible price hike following the disruption to South32 in Australia. But what about downstream players in Manganese alloys?

Alloys of Ferro-Mn and Silico-Mn have started rallying to the highest price in two years.

1/2

[Chins @Chins1729]

@Sharad9Dubey Mangalam, Kanchi.

Then you have more diversified players like Privi and Oriental Aromatics.

[Chins @Chins1729]

Camphor: commodity dark horse for FY25?

India imports a large portion of Camphor's RM from Brasil, where there is talk of lower supply.

Indeed, imports of this RM from Jan-March have been the lowest in six years.

Camphor prices could start to increase in Q1 going forward.

[Chins @Chins1729]

If you've thought some meetings at work are pointless, spare a thought for the executives at Muthoot Pappachan Group.

[Sekhar @LearningEleven]

Channel check with Page Industries (Jockey) Distributer - Mumbai

The key takeaways include:
📌Demand continues to be weak due to persistent weakness in the category and macro-economic conditions
📌During festive season sales were down 5%-10% YoY
📌Jockey retains its premium image and does not participate in competitive pricing to drive sales
📌Rupa & VIP facing worst demand off-take

[Chins @Chins1729]

Spoke to the zonal head at one of the innerwear companies in India, who spent the entire call praising Dollar Industries' business model. Notes below:

https://t.co/xyCWJPDoq4

If you want to understand Dollar, search for @Ankush__Agrawal on the concalls.🫡

[Chins @Chins1729]

Sorry to say, but if this is your takeaway, I don't think you understand banks, NBFCs, or the co-lending model.

The transcript says @nirvana_laha asked the question, but it was me.

He's answering a specific question on co-lending, and the benefits of lending via this model for a bank, namely that they have lower opex.

It's easy to take all of the nuance out of this and say NBFCs = bad for a headline.

[Aditya Shah @AdityaD_Shah]

Ugro Capital:-

Clearly says Banks have a lower cost of funds
NBFCs are in no position to compete with banks

NBFCs now need to collaborate with banks!

Conclusion:-
Donta buy NBFCs are irrational valuations
The business models are very vulnerable

[theHarshFolio @theHarshFolio]

Shrimp recovery to US continues, with strong volume growth. However, realizations have kept coming down. Indian and Ecuador cos maintain their market share. Source: @Tijori1