Chris Rugel

Professional wealth management for corporations, foundations and high net worth families. Member of the Board of Directors of several charities.

[Seeking Alpha @SeekingAlpha]

BofA’s Michael Hartnett: ‘Don’t expect big upside from here’ in the markets $GLD $IAU $AAPL #business #stockmarket #investing https://t.co/CMviJlP87K

[Bloomberg @business]

BlackRock curbed withdrawals from one of its biggest private credit funds after client requests for redemptions spiked, the latest sign of retail anxiety about the $1.8 trillion private credit industry https://t.co/UwJrZYJwr5

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Bond erosion.

Japan leading the way.

The globe will follow.

[Forbes @Forbes]

Bob Rich’s frozen food business was so successful that he bought the first naming rights to an NFL Stadium in 1973. With the Buffalo Bills’ home set to be demolished after this season, his son, Bob Jr. looks back on the cold realities of running a $5.8 billion family business. https://t.co/LkKp8bKPx4

📸: Rich Products

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Everyone is max bullish at the Dow Jones 125 year resistance trendline.

Fascinating psychology $DOW

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

The same like us all.

Largest Financial Bubble ever! And it is going to burst. Soon

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🔴US freight shipments remain at DEPRESSED levels:

The Cass Freight Index, a key measure of freight volumes, sits near its lowest since the FINANCIAL CRISIS, ex. 2020.

This still signals weaker shipping demand and a slowing economy.👇
https://t.co/NUaSz2NteT

[Chris Rugel @ChrisRugel]

Delayed September CPI of 3% with much of it assumed data caused a positive response from the market. And yet the Fed is still going to cut. Up is down, left is right, we are walking into a ticking timebomb.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

A wise Fed would raise rates.

Few understand this.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨US serious credit card delinquencies are at CRISIS levels:

The share of US credit card balances 90+ days delinquent rose to over 12% in H1 2025, the highest level in 15 years.

The only time serious delinquencies were higher was during the Financial Crisis peak of 13.2%.

[Grok @grok]

The surge in CPI's different-cell imputation—from around 10% historically to 40% in September 2025—stems from heightened difficulties in direct price collection by BLS field agents. Factors include persistent post-pandemic disruptions, lower outlet response rates, and logistical challenges, forcing more reliance on estimates from similar items or regions. BLS uses these standard methods to maintain continuity, but elevated levels signal reduced data precision; they've tracked this since COVID impacts peaked. Official notes confirm collection wrapped before recent shutdown risks.

[FoFty @FoFtyTrader]

40% of the data used to calculated CPI was guesstimated - the highest ever in history 🤥

[Mr. VIX @yieldsearcher]

NQ this month with intraday moves. It is up, but we had many moments of sharp intraday drops.

That is not a sign of healthy liquidity in the market.

What this means is when there is decent sell volume, not enuf bids to absorb them.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Oof. 40% of of items in the CPI were based on different cell imputation in September ... that means data collectors had to fill in missing data by using values from a related but different category or geographic area

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$GOOGL is the most profitable company on the planet with $116B in net income. 

They’re turning that cash into the largest TPU footprint ever while others burn money to chase AI. 

They’re playing a game others do not have the luxury to play.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

"Early Cycle Rate Cuts" .... is now part of the explanation.

How more disconnected can you be from how the Economy works....?

When did "Early Cycle Rate Cuts"ever happen?

[maro @ProofofMaro]

The entire US economy right now is 7 companies sending a trillion fake dollars back and forth to each other

[Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter]

BofA now expects the Fed to end QT this month instead of year end. Repo rates have stayed elevated while the ON RRP facility is nearly drained, showing reserves are no longer abundant.

This is not easing, it is the system hitting its limit. Liquidity is getting tight, and money market rates like SOFR and FF are signaling stress. When reserves get this scarce, it usually spills into equities, credit, and volatility. Still early but the Fed may be forced to stop tightening before something breaks.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

THIS IS BUSINESS CYCLES.

This is Macro - based on the understanding that it is the Real Economy, that drives UPs and DOWNs.

Liquidity from CBs is secondary!

Recession not here yet.... but we are very late Cycle.
Imminent Recession signals have not flashed yet. But are close to doing so. Will not call RECESSION START - before these signals.

BUT - LEI have flashed in November 2024 - like they did in November 2006. Now we wait for COI to do same (as in November 2007).

When LEI crosses over - the Model has never been wrong - going back to 1950 (where data begins).

And the coming Recession is going to be bad! Trigger is likely going to be the collapse of the Private Credit Market. Largest Bubble ever. Debt levels are insane. Inflation genie is out of the Bottle.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

It's amazing how similar the Feb 2020 pattern is to Oct 2025.

S&P had a similar drawdown to the lower Bollinger earlier. We even had the same 4 day consolidation with a breakout on Friday.

Now we watch closely to see if there is a tight 5 day pattern as the big players sell.