Chris Wade

Foraged for mushrooms in the woods—earthy treasures, caution advised.

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

BITCOIN This pattern started the 2 major crashes of 2026

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been rejected on its 1W MA50 (red trend-line) on three straight weeks and as long as it does, that creates a bearish momentum for the market

Technically, this has created an Arc pattern (resembling a Head and Shoulders also) similar to the formations that shaped the January and May Tops. Those led to the two major crashes of 2026. The May one in particular got rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just like the current one has done (so far) on the 1W MA50

With the 1D RSI formations among the three fractals also identical, all eyes now should be on the Higher Lows trend-line. When that broke in January and May, the two strong sell-offs were initiated. This activity needs to be monitored and if it breaks out again, most likely a new aggressive Bearish Leg will be confirmed

Both previous Bearish Legs hit the 3.5 Fibonacci extension before bottoming. At the same time the 1D RSI hit 15.80 on both occasions

As a result, if that break-out takes place, we expect BTC to target $61500 (Fib extension 3.5) unless the 1D RSI hits 15.80 first (in which case it will be a strong Buy Signal again). Notice that the 1W MA250 (black trend-line) is the current market Support, holding the July 01 Low. Keep also in mind that a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50, confirms instead the new Bull Cycle

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

🇺🇸 U.S. PPI — TODAY
Markets are watching 0.4% MoM, but the size of the surprise — and Core PPI confirmation — could determine the real reaction.
📊 See the probabilities for EUR/USD, Gold, S&P 500, WTI & Bitcoin under each PPI scenario 👆
⏱️ Highest-confidence window: 15 min – 1 hour

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

🇪🇺 ECB RATE DECISION — TODAY
A 25 bp hike is widely expected, so the real market mover will be Lagarde’s guidance on what comes next.
📊 See how EUR/USD, Gold, S&P 500, WTI & Bitcoin could react under each ECB scenario 👆
⏱️ Highest-confidence window: 15 min – 1 hour

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

🛢 Oil is back at the center of the market narrative as Middle East tensions revive inflation fears
Higher crude prices are pressuring rate-sensitive assets across Europe and Wall Street while keeping bond yields and central-bank expectations in focus

📊 TRADINGSHOT — DAILY MARKET RECAP
September 8, 2026 | European + U.S. Sessions
⠀
European equities finished subdued and Wall Street traded lower as Middle East escalation pushed oil back toward $100, reviving inflation fears just days before critical ECB and U.S. inflation decisions.
⠀
The dominant theme across both sessions was clear: higher energy prices → higher inflation risk → higher-for-longer rate expectations → pressure on equities and bonds.
⠀
🔥 TODAY’S BIGGEST MARKET DRIVERS
⠀
🛢 OIL SURGES AFTER ATTACKS ON SAUDI ENERGY FACILITIES — 🔴 HIGH IMPACT
⠀
Iran-aligned Houthi forces attacked energy facilities and cities in Saudi Arabia, escalating concerns that the regional conflict could further disrupt Gulf supply.
⠀
Brent traded near $98–$99 during the session and WTI above $92, reaching six-week highs. Gulf exports are already materially impaired, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.
⠀
Market transmission: Oil ↑ → inflation expectations ↑ → bond yields ↑ → rate-hike risk ↑ → stocks ↓
⠀
🇺🇸 WALL STREET OPENS LOWER AS FED HIKE ODDS HOLD NEAR 60% — 🔴 HIGH IMPACT
⠀
At Reuters’ 11:35 ET / 16:35 London snapshot:
⠀
Dow: 52,895 | -0.97%
S&P 500: 7,695 | -0.30%
Nasdaq: 26,490 | -0.06%
⠀
Markets priced a 58.4% probability of a September Fed hike, with Friday’s CPI now viewed as the key deciding catalyst. Nvidia and Microsoft fell 1.7% and 1.4%, while Apple declined 1.3%.
⠀
Energy was the strongest S&P 500 sector as crude rose, while Intel and Qualcomm outperformed after AI-chip optimism helped offset broader technology weakness.
⠀
🇪🇺 EUROPE STAYS CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF ECB — 🔴 HIGH IMPACT
⠀
The STOXX 600 finished essentially flat/slightly lower, with investors unwilling to take aggressive positions ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision.
⠀
Energy shares gained as oil climbed, while European miners jumped around 2% as copper hit record highs. Novartis plunged 10.9%, its worst one-day decline on record, after another late-stage drug trial setback.
⠀
Markets widely expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% on Thursday, with higher energy prices keeping inflation risks elevated.
⠀
🇬🇧 FTSE SLIPS AS UK BORROWING COSTS HIT RECORD — 🟠 MEDIUM IMPACT
⠀
FTSE 100: 10,811.66 | -0.10%
FTSE 250: -0.64%
⠀
Energy and mining stocks provided support, but broader risk sentiment remained cautious. Antofagasta gained 4.7% and Glencore 4.2% as copper prices surged.
⠀
The UK also sold £4.25B of 30-year gilts at 5.8168%, the highest borrowing yield recorded since the Debt Management Office began operations in 1998. Strong demand nevertheless showed investors remained willing to absorb long-duration UK debt.
⠀
🏦 BOE BAILEY PUSHES BACK AGAINST INEVITABLE HIKES — 🟠 MEDIUM IMPACT
⠀
Governor Andrew Bailey said higher market rate expectations partly reflect an energy-price risk premium, but stressed that another Bank of England hike is not predetermined.
⠀
A Reuters poll showed economists overwhelmingly expecting the BoE to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% through the remainder of 2026, despite the oil shock.
📊 TRADINGSHOT — DAILY MARKET RECAP
September 8, 2026 | European + U.S. Sessions
⠀
🇺🇸 US ECONOMY & FED
⠀
The New York Fed’s August Consumer Expectations Survey showed inflation expectations remaining elevated but relatively stable:
⠀
1-Year: 3.6%
3-Year: 3.2%
5-Year: 3.0%
⠀
The more concerning signal came from labor expectations. The probability consumers assign to unemployment being higher one year from now jumped to 44.4% — the highest since April 2020.
⠀
Consumers also reported worsening expectations for credit availability and personal finances.
⠀
The report does little to settle the Fed debate: inflation expectations remain sticky, but households are becoming more cautious about employment and finances.
⠀
🏦 BONDS & RATES
⠀
The benchmark U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield traded around 4.79%–4.80%, remaining close to multi-year highs.
⠀
High yields continue to challenge equity valuations as investors demand greater compensation for inflation, fiscal risk and tighter monetary policy. The 10-year is increasingly approaching the psychologically important 5% level.
⠀
💵 FOREX
⠀
The dollar remained relatively steady despite the risk-off tone:
⠀
DXY: ~98.88
GBP/USD: ~1.353
⠀
Sterling softened modestly as traders weighed Bailey’s comments against rising energy-price risks. The pound remains caught between expectations that the BoE will hold rates and market pricing for additional tightening if inflation accelerates.
⠀
🪙 GOLD & COMMODITIES
⠀
Spot Gold: ~$4,399 | -0.1%
Silver: ~$66.31 | +0.3%
⠀
Gold struggled to benefit from geopolitical risk because rising Treasury yields and expectations of another Fed hike offset safe-haven demand.
⠀
Copper was the standout commodity outside energy, hitting a record $14,736/ton on the London Metal Exchange amid tightening supply and continued flows into the U.S. ahead of possible tariffs.
⠀
₿ CRYPTO
⠀
Bitcoin retreated back toward/below the $80K area as higher yields and a cautious risk environment pressured rate-sensitive assets.
⠀
Crypto-linked equities also weakened, with Coinbase down roughly 1.9% and Strategy about 3.6% in the U.S. session.
⠀
🌍 GEOPOLITICS
⠀
Middle East risk once again became a direct macro catalyst after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure raised the possibility of wider regional supply disruptions.
⠀
The issue is no longer simply geopolitical: oil near $100 directly threatens the disinflation narrative that both the Fed and ECB need before they can stop tightening.
⠀
👀 WHAT TRADERS SHOULD WATCH NEXT
⠀
1️⃣ ECB RATE DECISION — Thursday, September 10 | 13:15 London
Press conference: 13:45 London
⠀
A 25bp hike to 2.50% is widely expected. The key question is whether the ECB signals that September is the final move or leaves the door open to further tightening.
⠀
2️⃣ U.S. PPI — Thursday, September 10 | 13:30 London
⠀
Producer inflation will provide the first major U.S. inflation test following the strong August payroll report.
⠀
3️⃣ U.S. CPI — Friday, September 11 | 13:30 London
⠀
This is the most important remaining catalyst before the September Fed meeting. A hotter reading could significantly strengthen the case for another hike.
⠀
4️⃣ UK GDP + TRADE — Friday, September 11 | 07:00 London
⠀
July monthly GDP, trade and production figures will help determine whether the UK economy remains resilient enough to absorb elevated rates.
⠀
🎯 TRADINGSHOT BOTTOM LINE
⠀
The European and U.S. sessions were mildly risk-off, driven primarily by a renewed oil shock and rising inflation concerns.
⠀
European markets held relatively steady, but Wall Street weakened as investors balanced geopolitical risk, nearly 5% Treasury yields and a roughly 60% probability of another Fed hike.
⠀
Gold failed to fully benefit from safe-haven demand because higher yields remain a powerful headwind, while energy and mining stocks outperformed.
⠀
The market focus now shifts to Thursday’s ECB decision and PPI, followed by Friday’s crucial U.S. CPI report

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

XAUUSD Bear Cycle vs Dollar Bull Cycle Ultimate Cheat-sheet.

Gold (XAUUSD) has entered a Bull Cycle and that was long ago confirmed when at the start of 2026 it broke below its 1W MA50. It is no coincidence that this took place while at the same time the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), displayed in green on this chart, has been on a clear technical bottoming process throughout the whole year.

This is a perfect illustration of both Gold's and the Dollar's Cycles since the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. As you can see, every time the USD bottomed on its Channel Up (green) and started a Bull Cycle, Gold started a Bear Cycle. Even their less major moves have been on a negative (inverse) correlation as quite often when Gold rose, the Dollar fell and vice versa on shorter periods of time.

Right now we are at the start of a clear Bull Cycle on the USD. And as shown, those Bull Cycles almost immediately were met with sudden and aggressive Bullish Leg rallies that took place while Gold was already on a downtrend (Bear Cycle). This is not a coincidence, the Gold market tends to deflate when participants clearly realize it was overvalued after massive rallies and a strong Dollar comes to give the final strong push downwards when the macro monetary scene shifts.

Right now we are on the cusp of one. And if it materializes, Dollar should rally aggressively for most of 2027, while Gold could gradually extend its decline and in our opinion touch at least its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) before its long Bear Cycle is over.

Most importantly, this historical chart shows that near the Top of DXY's Channel Up, Dollar is a Sell opportunity, while Gold is on its most optimal Buy opportunity. Long-tern investors wait for such clear macro signals

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

📅 U.S. stock markets are closed today, September 7, for Labor Day.
NYSE and Nasdaq trading resumes on the next regular session — expect lighter U.S. market activity today

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

DOW JONES Best strategy on 17 years of accurate Buy-Sell levels

Dow Jones (DJIA) has been trading within a Channel Up since the March 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. During the course of this multi-year trend, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) has acted as the long-term Support and the ultimate buy entry for long-term buying.

So far we've had 4 major correction events (Bearish Legs) within this pattern (excluding the non-technical March 2020 COVID crash and the March 2025 Tariff crash). The common characteristic of those has been that the index pulled back to at least the middle of the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci range. With the exception of December 2018 (which still broke way below its 1W MA100 (red trend-line)), the other three corrections also hit the 1M MA50.

As you can see, every time Dow hit the 1M MA50 (even on the March 2020 COVID flash-crash), it took it 51 months the longest until the next 1M MA50 contact. Right now the market has gone the longest without such a correction since 2015. It actually looks a lot like the 2015 peak pattern, given also the fact that the 1M CCI has printed the same Triple Top formation (red circles).

If therefore, the 51 month range holds then we should be expecting the next 1M MA50 contact by December 2026, which indicates that Dow should start declining aggressively soon. Since however that would need a major catalyst to dip that low on such a short time (even stronger than Fed Rate hikes and/ or worse geopolitics), we expect Dow to reach at least its 0.236 Fib by that time at 47000, which would also be a perfect test of the 1W MA100, that has been untouched since April 2025!

If the market gets that catalyst and drops lower towards its 1M MA50 within Q1 2027, a 0.382 test could take place within 44500 - 43000. That would also enter the 0.5 - 0.382 Fibonacci Zone (green Zone) of the 17-year Channel Up, which is where the 2022, 2018, 2015 and 2011 bottoms took place. Similarly the 0.786 - 1.0 Fib range of the Channel (red Zone), has been a Sell opportunity, which is where the index currently is.

Notice how the 1M RSI has historically given us the most optimal long-term buy entry combined with the 1M MA50. And that is the 47.50 Support, which as you can see every time it got hit (green circles), the market was at or very close to a bottom.

So our base scenario for Dow is 47000, to make contact with the 1W MA100 and the 0.236 Fib level. The 1M MA50 would be monitored in case of an extended correction on a massive catalyst. If however the 1M RSI hits its 47.50 Support before Dow hits any price Target, then we will turn into long-term buyers again regardless of the price at the time

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

BITCOIN Earliest Gaussian Test Ever — “This Time Is Different”?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has hit the red Gaussian Channel (GC) for the first time during this Bear Cycle after breaking below the green one in late January. All such tests on previous Bear Cycles since 2015 have produces different outcomes.

In July 2015, the red GC test resulted into a huge rejection, causing a full price retrace that marginally breached the Bear Cycle's January 2015 Bottom. In April 2019, the teste resulted into a short few week consolidation and then bullish break-out. In February 2023 it resulted into a rejection but only a 0.5 Fibonacci retrace.

Needless to say, this is the quickest test of the red GC as the usual 1-year Bear Cycle duration hasn't been completed yet. At the same time, if the July 01 2026 Low was the Bear Cycle Bottom, then it would be the first historically that hasn't touched the Realized Price (black trend-line), the CVDD (Coin Value Days Destroyed, orange trend-line) or its Sub-Band (blue trend-line). It is a fact though that it was also the first Bull Cycle that BTC didn't hit the CVDD extension (Top, red trend-line).

So perhaps this is a strong sign of market maturity after BTC's infancy years and proof of the Theory of Diminishing Returns that at some point in time, would come strong and stabilize a market that was rising and correcting equally violently.

So what now? If BTC closes above its 1W MA50 eventually, expect it to break-out above the GC violently, confirming the new Bull Cycle. If it retraces to the 0.5 Fib, then $69000 would be its Higher Low on the new Bull Cycle. On the other hand, a full rejection retrace like in 2015, would make a Double Bottom marginally below the $58000 mark. This way it could come close to the Realized Price and the CVDD Zone, which currently rest within $53000 - $49000. Currently doubtful to get hit.

So what do you think will happen next after this early red GC test? New High, 0.5 Fib retrace to $69000 or full retrace to $58000?

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

BITCOIN Is this Head and Shoulders like May or will it fail?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is forming a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern following its incredible rally 2 weeks ago, and already broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which is technically its first short-term Support.

H&S patterns are often formed on market Tops and signal a technical correction towards at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. However, since May, we've had three such patterns with 2 failing to produce a significantly technical Low, while only 1 succeeded at this.

That was the H&S following the May 06 Top, which was a Lower High on the Bear Cycle scale and not only did it hit its 2.0 Fibonacci extension, but even made a new Cycle Low as it collapsed by -30%.

With the 4H RSI currently on a Bearish Divergence, it is not unlikely to see another such technical drop but on the short-term, the 2.0 Fib ext looks like a more feasible technical Target as at $70250, it will also make a contact with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). Note also that the recent August 28 High hit (and so far got rejected on) the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which has historically been the Bear Cycle's Resistance.

So do you think the current H&S will break downwards or make a new High?

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

Bitcoin is on steroids ❤️ Hit $75,000!

If this momentum continues, BTC could cross $80K soon.

Over $1.1B in short positions have been liquidated in the past 24 hours. 🚀

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

BITCOIN Bear Cycle Resistance on the 1D MA100-200.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been practically consolidating for the past 30 days, finding Support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). At the same time, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which provided the massive January rejection and Bearish Leg and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just above, which did the same in May, are closing in fast from above.

Those two essentially form the Bear Cycle's Resistance Zone, with BTC trading below both since November 2025. One final Bearish Leg could send Bitcoin where it bottomed on the previous Bear Cycle on the 1W MA350 (red trend-line). $50000 seems more than fair as a Target by early October, when the 4-year Cycle ends. A -38.50% decline like in January could even drop the price to as low as $41000 but at this point this seems like a more extreme scenario

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

EURUSD 8-year Cycles call for a strong drop to 1.12000

The EURUSD pair enjoyed a strong 2-week rally that is headed towards a direct 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) test. That has turned into the market's long-term Resistance since May and aligns perfectly with the previous two Head and Shoulders (H&S) patterns of EURUSD's 8-year cyclical sequence.

Both of those when they approached their 1W MA50 (September 2018 and September 2021), they reversed massively and hit not just the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but also the Pivot Zone. Those reversals completed the Right Shoulder of the H&S patterns and initiated the Bear Cycles aggressive Legs.

Even though the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) acted as a Support in late June, expect that to break and a potential 1W MA200 contact on the Pivot Zone can take place at 1.12000. On a side-note, notice also the 1W RSI pattern, which on all three sequences has been descending under Lower Highs

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

Over the past 24 hours, global financial markets have shifted into a consolidation phase following this week's major macro events. U.S. equities pulled back slightly after a strong rally, with the Dow Jones -0.85%, S&P 500 -0.18%, and Nasdaq -0.06%, as investors took profits after record highs while keeping a close eye on corporate earnings and upcoming employment data.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown impressive resilience. After breaking above their descending trendlines earlier this week, both assets completed a textbook technical pullback, successfully retesting key support levels before stabilizing. This type of "breakout → retest → continuation" pattern is often considered a healthy sign of trend confirmation.

🇺🇸 Market Overview

Despite weakness in U.S. equities, the crypto market remained relatively stable, suggesting that digital assets are beginning to display greater independence from traditional risk markets. Investor sentiment is still being influenced by macroeconomic data, geopolitical developments, and expectations surrounding central bank policy.

One of the most encouraging signals continues to come from institutional investors.

📈 Spot ETF Flow (August 6)

• Bitcoin Spot ETFs:+$128.69M net inflow
• Ethereum Spot ETFs:+$92.15M net inflow

Together, both markets attracted more than $220 million in fresh institutional capital in a single day.

This marks another session of sustained ETF inflows, with Ethereum recording one of its strongest daily inflows in nearly a month. Continuous institutional accumulation while broader equity markets consolidate remains a constructive signal for the crypto market.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Resistance: $65,500 / $66,000
Support: $64,000 / $64,500

BTC has successfully retested the breakout area around $64K-$64.5K, where the previous descending trendline now aligns with the 1H MA60 moving average.

As long as BTC holds above the $64,000 support zone, the current consolidation should be viewed as a healthy pause within an improving short-term trend. A successful defense could open the door for another attempt toward the $65.5K-$66K resistance area.

Ξ Ethereum (ETH)

Resistance: $1,950 / $1,980
Support: $1,880 / $1,900

ETH continues to outperform on a relative basis.

After pulling back from the $1,920 area, ETH found support around $1,890, remaining above both its short-term moving average and the breakout trendline.

Holding above $1,880 keeps the short-term bullish structure intact, with a break above $1,920 potentially paving the way toward the $1,950 resistance zone.

📊 Technical Outlook

On the 1-hour timeframe, the MACD has cooled following its recent bullish expansion, while trading volume has declined noticeably during consolidation. Importantly, the reduced volume reflects a lack of aggressive selling rather than panic liquidation.

Overall, the current structure suggests a healthy consolidation after the breakout rather than a trend reversal.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #CryptoMarket #ETF #BinanceSquare #Trading #Investing

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

GBPUSD rejected on the 2026 Resistance.

The GBPUSD pair almost hit on Monday the Lower Highs trend-line that has been actively rejecting rallies since the January 27 Top. Effectively acting as a Resistance since the start of the year.

As a result, a new Bearish Leg is highly likely to take place now and the first line of Support in the past months has been the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is what we're looking for at 1.32250. Along with the Higher Lows trend-line and the Support Zone down below, they for a formidable long-term Support Cluster, which if broken, expect the GBPUSD Bear Cycle to continue for another year at least

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

BITCOIN last 2 major bottoms were priced there..

It really can't get any more straightforward for Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) than this. Having traded within the same Higher Highs pattern since the December 2017 Cycle Top, every major High was priced and rejected there.

At the same time, this pattern has priced the last 2 major lows (March 2020, November 2022) on the 1W MA350 (red trend-line). In fact it's the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1W MA350 range that can be called a 'Bottom Zone'.

BTC broke and closed below the 1W MA200 on June and closed the last 2 months below it. When that happened after June 2022, the bottoming process was initiated. The 1W MA350 is currently marginally below the $50000 mark.

Will we get a Bear Cycle Bottom there by October, which is when the 4-year Cycle gets completed?

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

📊 Crypto Market Daily & Deep Dive | Aug 6, 2026

Traders! Here is your daily global macro and crypto market overview for Thursday, August 6, 2026.

Over the past 24 hours, we witnessed a classic financial paradigm shift:"U.S. equities consolidating at multi-month highs while the crypto market launches an aggressive catch-up breakout."

Here is everything you need to know about liquidity flows, technical levels, and trading strategies for today 👇

1️⃣ Global Macro & U.S. Market Performance

On Wednesday (Aug 5), U.S. stock indices displayed high-level sector divergence:

Dow Jones ($DJI): Rose +0.49% to close at 54,349, printing another all-time high driven by defensive and healthcare sectors.
Nasdaq ($IXIC): Pulled back by -0.83% to 26,363, weighed down by tech heavyweights following post-earnings sell-offs (SpaceX, AMD).
S&P 500 ($SPX): Dipped -0.17% to 7,724.

💡 Macro Breakdown: As tech stocks faced temporary profit-taking, excess liquidity began rotating into beaten-down, high-beta risk assets. Crypto—which was sitting at the tail end of a multi-week technical bottom—became the primary destination for this capital rotation.

2️⃣ Wall Street Inflows: ETF Demand Surges

Institutional conviction has reached a critical turning point. Cash flows into U.S. Spot ETFs experienced a massive acceleration yesterday:

📈 Spot BTC ETF: Recorded a staggering +$244.42M single-day net inflow.
📈 Spot ETH ETF: Inflows exploded to +$60.86M in a single day.
💰 Combined Total: +$305.28 Million in net pure cash injected in just 24 hours!

💡 Institutional Takeaway: Over the last 48 hours alone, Wall Street institutions have poured nearly $570 million into spot crypto. This persistent buying power completely crushed bear defenses near key downward trendlines. Institutions are actively accumulating at the $63,000 (BTC) and $1,850 (ETH) regions.

3️⃣ Technical Analysis & Intraday Trading Outlook

Both $BTC and$ETH printed heavy-volume bullish impulse candles overnight, successfully breaking out of two-week downward channels.

🪙 Bitcoin ($BTC) Strategy

Current Action: $BTC forcefully reclaimed the $64,500 level. On the 1H chart, the MACD completed a strong bullish crossover above the zero line with expanding volume.
Price Structure: High volume on the breakout with extremely low, dried-up volume on the retest—a classic bullish continuation pattern.
🛑 Key Resistance: $65,500 / $66,000
🛡️Key Support: $64,000 / $64,500
🎯 Game Plan: Look for support retests near $64,200 – $64,300 to confirm a (trend-following) long position targeting $65,500.

🪙 Ethereum ($ETH) Strategy

Current Action: $ETH showed exceptional relative strength, surging off $1,850 and slicing through $1,880 trendline resistance to reclaim $1,910+
Price Structure: $ETH is currently outperforming$BTC in daily percentage gains, completing a clean structural breakout.
🛑 Key Resistance: $1,950 / $1,980
🛡️ Key Support: $1,880 / $1,900
🎯 Game Plan: Maintain a strict "buy-the-dip" strategy. If price holds the $1,880 – $1,900 support zone, expect a secondary push toward $1,950.

4️⃣ Market Sentiment: The "Lagging Fear" Trap

📉 Fear & Greed Index: 25 (Extreme Fear)

⚠️ Sentiment vs. Reality Alert:
Despite prices surging past major trendlines, the Fear & Greed Index dipped slightly from 27 to 25. This creates a severe sentiment-price divergence.

Retail market participants—shaken by previous choppy liquidations—are terrified to buy the breakout. Meanwhile, smart money is absorbing supply through spot ETFs. We remain in an institutional accumulation phase before the true parabolic wave begins. Stay disciplined and patient.

#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #TradingStrategy #BTC #ETH $BTC$ETH #TechnicalAnalysis

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

DAX 4-month Channel Up topped. Sell Signal.

DAX (DE40) has been trading within a Channel Up since early April and yesterday it hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern and got rejected. Every time such rejection has taken place (4 times) along with a 1D RSI reversal, the pattern initiated a Bearish Leg.

The smallest decline such a Bearish Leg had was -4.75% and all hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, before rebounding.

As a result, we expect DAX to reach at least 25300 next, which would be both a 0.618 Fib test and 1D MA50 test

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

GOOGLE 12-year Channel Up says correction isn't over.

Google (GOOG) has been trading within a 12-year Channel Up since its IPO and the recent April - May massive rally has made it hit the pattern's Top (Higher Highs trend-line) for the first time since November 2021.

That was the Top that kick-started the 2022 Bear Cycle, which declined by almost -45%, bottoming just below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The latter has historically been the market's long-term Support (hence optimal buy entry) as it contained both the 2025 Tariffs flash crash and the 2020 COVID flash crash.

Technically this Channel Up displays strong similarities among those fractals and the fact that May hit its top and got rejected into a new pull-back that touched the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), further supports this argument.

Those similarities are also reflected on their 1M RSI sequences that give a strong sense of cyclical behavior. What stands out on the 1M RSI is the 41.50 Support, which has delivered the market's two most optimal multi-year buy entries (June 2015 and December 2022). If such a test occurs, it goes without saying that it is an automatic long-term buy.

So with the recent Channel Up Top rejection, the probabilities for an extended technical Bearish Leg becomes stronger. Based on the price and RSI structure, the current fractal resembles ore the 2025 Tariffs crash, the 2020 COVID crash as well as the 2018 U.S. - China Trade War correction. As you can see, those crashes were preceded by smaller corrections (ellipse patterns). We already had that now during the recent February - March (U.S. - Iran war) pull-back.

As a result, we expect Alphabet Inc. to target at least $312.00 (representing a -23.04% decline from the Top, similar to August - December 2018 correction) and if the macro environment at the time favors more selling, then move to an additional test of the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at $280.00 by the end of the year

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

DOW JONES Is this like the INTERNET BUBBLE all over again?

Dow Jones ($DJIA) has been replicating the Internet Bull Cycle in the past few years. This is no surprise as, like we've mentioned for a long time, the market is living the A.I. Bull Cycle.

What makes this case even stronger is that since 2018, Dow has been trading in an identical way as what followed the 1987 Black Monday crash. That was the event that initiated the 1990s Dotcom Bubble just like the 2020 COVID crash was what initiated the printing of insane amounts of new currency and gave way to the A.I. Bubble that we are still currently on (and potentially have another 6 years before it bursts.

As you can see, the structure between those eras is very similar, both starting off with a -40% flash crash event (1987 Black Monday, 2020 COVID) and then after a run they both had a -23.72% correction exactly on their 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). The eras continues with another long rally that had a pull-back to its 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and now we could be at the period where in 1994 Dow had a new -11.54% pull-back that touched its 1W MA100.

In the meantime, the 1M RSI sequences among the two fractals are also identical, potentially even more so than the price action. So does that mean that Dow Jones is about to pull back to its 1W MA100 again before having a mega rally that will touch it again in 4 years? The next 2 months should potentially give us the answer

[Chris Wade @ChrisWadetu]

$BITCOIN The CVDD has NEVER missed a Cycle bottom.

We've shown lately how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has entered the final stages of its Bear Cycle, where most likely one final strong decline will form the bottom. An overlooked, but very powerful historically, indicator relative to market bottoms is the CVDD (Coin Value Days Destroyed) and comes to compliment that idea of the final stages.

It is an on-chain indicator, that calculates the cumulative sum of "Coin Days Destroyed" (value-time destruction) as coins move from old to new hands, weighted by the USD value at transfer time.

On the massive June Bearish Leg, BTC hit the shifted CVDD (black trend-line) and has since turned sideways on it. This consolidation could technically be the signal before the final strong Bearish Leg. The actual CVDD (green trend-line) currently sits around $48100 but marginally trending downwards.

It is interesting to mention that during the past three Cycles, the CVDD got hit twice (on each Cycle). Two times in 2022, one time in 2018 and 2020 and two times in 2015. It also priced accurately the 2011 bottom.

Notice also that in the past two Cycles, BTC spent at least 4 months on its CVDD while 2015 mostly spent it on the shifted line. This indicates that even one direct hit on the CVDD is enough to price the Cycle bottom.

As a result, a CVDD touch in the next 2 months at $50000 would be a very realistic scenario and is aligned perfectly with a number of other accurate Cycle bottom indicators as we've shown before.

On a side-note, observe also the useful role of the 1W MA50 (blue dotted trend-line). After the CVDD historically prices the Bear Cycle bottom, a break soon after above the 1W MA50 comes to confirm the start of the new Bull Cycle.

Key Aspects of CVDD to keep in mind:

- Purpose: It acts as a reliable support line for Bitcoin price floors, often signaling when the market is deeply undervalued.
- Components: It combines Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) with the USD valuation of transactions to track when long-term holders (old hands) sell to new investors.
- Formula & Calculation: The metric is derived by multiplying a ratio of cumulative CDD and market age by a factor of 6 million.
- Top Indicator: While primarily a bottom indicator, it is sometimes used in tandem with multipliers (e.g., 5x or 10x) to signal when the market is overheated