There's a physicist at Stanford named Safi Bahcall who modeled this exact principle and the math is wild.
He calls it "phase transitions in human networks." When you're stationary, your probability of a lucky event is limited to your existing surface area: the people you already know, the places you already go, the ideas you've already been exposed to. Your opportunity window is fixed.
When you move, your collision rate with new nodes in a network increases nonlinearly. Double your movement (new conversations, new cities, new projects) and your probability of a serendipitous encounter doesn't double. It roughly quadruples. Because each new node connects you to their entire network, not just to them.
Richard Wiseman ran a 10-year study at the University of Hertfordshire tracking self-described "lucky" and "unlucky" people. The single biggest differentiator wasn't IQ, education, or family money. Lucky people scored significantly higher on one trait: openness to experience. They talked to strangers more, varied their routines more, and said yes to invitations at nearly twice the rate.
The "unlucky" group followed the same routes, ate at the same restaurants, and talked to the same 5 people. Their networks were closed loops. No new inputs, no new collisions.
Luck isn't random. Luck is surface area. And surface area is a function of movement.
The lobster emoji is doing more work than most people realize. Lobsters grow by shedding their shell when it gets too tight. The growth requires a period of total vulnerability. No protection, no armor, soft body exposed to the ocean.
That's the cost of movement nobody posts about. You have to be uncomfortable first. The new shell only hardens after you've already moved.
The SEC’s grip on the sport was already gone, but tonight triple confirms it. Miami just physically looked way better than the last SEC team standing, and the SEC won’t have a team playing for it all.
The SEC has fallen. It is no longer what it thinks it is.
“It’s the Pop-Tart’s bowl. Both teams put sprinkles on their helmets and they have 6 live pop-tart mascots. The winning team gets to sacrifice one of them and then eat them live on the field. The trophy is also a fully functioning toaster. It’s the people’s national championship”
Home run for Bryan Blair and Toledo. Jacobs, a former Ohio State offensive lineman, is a Maumee native. He's done nothing but win in Division II and FCS. Was involved in the Bowling Green search last year.
G5 automatic qualifier is great for the sport. It gives those guys something to play for. College football isn’t just played in the SEC. It’s nationwide
Honestly, all I can do is thank him for everything he’s done for Toledo. The ride wasn’t always smooth, but zero losing seasons, a plethora of draft picks, the most importantly driving players to earn their degree, hes done so much.
Thank you Coach Candle.
I used to be “I have a second team”, but my heart belongs to the MAC
I have been asked all week who I was rooting for on Saturday, and depending on the group I’m talking to, I say “Toledo and Miami” or Ball State and Central Michigan” just to remind folks that their schools they attended are playing football that day.
Which gets annoying when they reply “ok but really who is your real team”
The MAC. My Alma mater and grad program. The conference that shaped me. The other Division 1 football programs in the state.