In 2025, Leopold Aschenbrenner delivered some incredible winners:
1. $BE — Bloom Energy (+1,422.85%)
2. $CRWV — CoreWeave (+166.67%)
3. $INTC — Intel (+365.83%)
4. $LITE — Lumentum Holdings (+1,331.49%)
5. $CORZ — Core Scientific (+135.95%)
6. $IREN — IREN Limited (+583.57%)
7. $APLD — Applied Digital (+629.58%)
8. $SNDK — SanDisk (+3,130.75%)
9. $CIFR — Cipher Mining (+449.35%)
Now in 2026, he is giving you this list 👇
- $TE — T1 Energy at $6.8
- $HIVE — HIVE Digital
- $RIOT — Riot Platforms at $22.6
- $APLD — Applied Digital at $36.6
- $IREN — IREN Limited at $47.7
- $BTDR — Bitdeer Technologies at $3.3
- $KEEL — Keel Holdings at $4.2
- $CLSK — CleanSpark at $14.6
- $SHAZ — Sharon AI at $52.4
- $PUMP — ProPetro at $17.8
- $PSIX — Power Solutions at $36.3
- $WYFI — WhiteFiber at $25.5
- $CORZ — Core Scientific at $22.9
Some of these companies have the potential to deliver 5x to 50x returns. The upside in many of these names is massive.
Bookmark this for research, focus on the companies that offer the best opportunities, and invest wisely.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
This is WILD!
Leopold Aschenbrenner just proved his thesis with his portfolio and the numbers are staggering (Save this).
He is a 24 year old former OpenAI researcher who published a 165-page manifesto in 2024 arguing that the real bottleneck on AGI was not algorithms or chips but rather was electricity.
He then bet his entire fund on it and the power math he laid out drives every single position.
In 2022, the GPT-4 training cluster consumed roughly 10 megawatts and cost around $500 million.
AI compute has been scaling at half an order of magnitude per year, so by 2024 the largest cluster was 100 megawatts and cost billions.
By 2026, right now the leading training cluster requires a full gigawatt of continuous power, the output of a large nuclear reactor, the power of the Hoover Dam.
By 2028, his model projects 10 gigawatts, more electricity than most US states produce in total and by 2030, a single training cluster consuming 100 gigawatts over 20% of everything the United States currently generates costing over a trillion dollars.
And that is just the training cluster, inference on top requires multiples of that.
Meanwhile, US electricity production has barely grown 5% in a decade and the grid was not built for any of this.
His largest position was Bloom Energy, a fuel cell company that generates power directly at data center sites, bypassing the grid entirely.
He began accumulating shares in the mid teens through 2025, built the position to $875 million, and watched it grow to approximately $2.73 billion after Q1 2026 earnings showed revenue up 130% year over year and an Oracle deal to deploy 2.8 gigawatts of fuel cells across AI data centers.
Bloom Energy stock is now up over 1,400% in the past year.
The rest of his Q1 portfolio reads like a master class in the same thesis, CoreWeave at $556 million, Iren Limited at $401 million, Core Scientific at $389 million, and Applied Digital at $320 million, every one of them a power and compute infrastructure play, not a model company.
Milk Road Pro called Bloom Energy early before the AI data center power thesis became consensus and our subscribers are up massively on the position.
Aschenbrenner's portfolio confirms exactly what we have been tracking, the trillion-dollar AI buildout is an energy and infrastructure trade first, and a software and model trade second.
Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio before the rest of the market catches on.
Q1 earnings are in: 2026 is off to a terrific start.
Our AI investments and full stack approach are lighting up every part of the business: Search queries are at an all-time high with AI continuing to drive usage. Google Cloud revenue grew 63%, Gemini models have incredible momentum, and it was our strongest quarter ever for consumer AI subs, driven by @GeminiApp.
Thanks to our partners + employees around the world. Much more to share on our earnings call in 20 minutes… and at Google I/O in 20 days!
I am a senior coordinating producer for the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner. I have worked eleven of these. I was backstage at the Washington Hilton when the shots were fired.
The first thing I heard was not the gunfire. It was glass.
A champagne flute hit the floor of the International Ballroom at approximately 9:47 PM. Then a second. Then the sound that I have since been told was a 12-gauge shotgun, which from inside the ballroom sounded like a heavy door slamming in a parking garage. Then the Secret Service moved. They moved the President, the Vice President, the First Lady through the east corridor in under ninety seconds, which is protocol, which is practiced, which is the one part of the evening that worked exactly as it was designed.
Everything else was improvised.
I know this because I ordered the wine. 94 tables. Two bottles per table. 188 bottles of a Willamette Valley pinot noir that the Association selected in February after a tasting committee spent three meetings debating between Oregon and Burgundy. Oregon won. The budget was $14,200. I signed the invoice. I can tell you the vintage. I can tell you the distributor. I can tell you the per-bottle cost because I negotiated it down from $89 to $76.
What I cannot tell you is how 147 of those bottles left the building during an active shooter evacuation.
I can tell you what I saw. A correspondent from a network I will not name picked up two bottles on her way to the east exit. Full bottles. One in each hand. She was wearing heels and she did not spill. A man in a tuxedo tucked one inside his jacket the way you'd shoplift a paperback at an airport bookstore. A woman picked up a bottle, looked at the label, put it back, and took a different one.
She checked the vintage. During an evacuation. That's editorial judgment under pressure.
The theme of the dinner was "A Free Press for a Free People." The banners were still hanging when the evacuation began. I know because I hung them. Twenty-three banners, navy blue, gold serif lettering, $11,400 for the set. They were still hanging when 2,600 guests were directed to the exits by Secret Service agents, one of whom had just taken a shotgun round in his ballistic vest and walked to the ambulance on his own feet.
The agent's vest costs approximately $800. The wine that left the building was worth $11,172 at Association cost. At restaurant markup, roughly $29,000. The guests saved more in wine than the vest that saved the agent.
That's priority.
The video went viral by 10:15 PM. Not the video of the evacuation. Not the Secret Service response. The wine. Three guests in formalwear grabbing bottles off white tablecloths while being told to move toward the exits, while a man with a shotgun stood in the same motor entrance where John Hinckley shot Ronald Reagan 45 years ago.
A woman near the service entrance was crying. She said "I just wanna go home." She was not holding wine. She was holding her phone. She was the only person I saw that night who looked afraid rather than inconvenienced.
That's the distinction. The rest of the ballroom did not look afraid. They looked interrupted. An active shooter at the WHCD is a logistical problem. The dinner was disrupted. The timeline was off. The after-party at the French Ambassador's residence would need to be rescheduled. These are contingency matters. Contingency matters have solutions. Fear is for people who attend events without security details.
I have produced eleven of these dinners. I have managed seating charts that require diplomatic-grade negotiations. I have handled comedians, cabinet secretaries, network anchors, and the editor of a major newspaper who once threatened to leave because his table was behind a column.
I have never, in eleven years, seen a guest leave a $76 bottle on the table during an evacuation. I have also never seen a guest check the label first. Both observations are consistent. The bottle is worth taking. The evacuation is worth surviving. The instinct is to do both simultaneously.
188 bottles placed. 41 recovered. 147 unaccounted for. One agent shot. Zero guests injured. Zero bottles broken.
A free press for a free people. The press is free. The wine was $76 a bottle. They took it anyway.
Palantir-CEO Alex Karp und NVIDIA-CEO Jensen Huang: AI = Amerikanische Intelligenz
Alex Karp: „KI macht Amerika zur dominierenden Nation der Welt.“
„Ich habe die Hälfte meines Lebens in Europa verbracht – die jammern und weinen. Wir haben die richtigen Chips, die richtige Software, die richtigen Ingenieure, die richtige Kultur …“
Vor allem haben die Amerikaner den "will to race", also den Willen, sich dem Wettbewerb zu stellen und ihn auch zu gewinnen. Das haben die Europäer verloren, sie gefallen sich nur noch darin, dem Rest der Welt ihre verkorksten Moral-Vorstellungen aufzudrücken - und scheitern natürlich.
Alex Karp ist einer der Tech-Billionäre, die den saturierten und suizidal durchgeknallten Psychos in Europa knallhart den Spiegel vorhalten. Richtig so.
Because we get asked a lot.
The Technological Republic, in brief.
1. Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation.
2. We must rebel against the tyranny of the apps. Is the iPhone our greatest creative if not crowning achievement as a civilization? The object has changed our lives, but it may also now be limiting and constraining our sense of the possible.
3. Free email is not enough. The decadence of a culture or civilization, and indeed its ruling class, will be forgiven only if that culture is capable of delivering economic growth and security for the public.
4. The limits of soft power, of soaring rhetoric alone, have been exposed. The ability of free and democratic societies to prevail requires something more than moral appeal. It requires hard power, and hard power in this century will be built on software.
5. The question is not whether A.I. weapons will be built; it is who will build them and for what purpose. Our adversaries will not pause to indulge in theatrical debates about the merits of developing technologies with critical military and national security applications. They will proceed.
6. National service should be a universal duty. We should, as a society, seriously consider moving away from an all-volunteer force and only fight the next war if everyone shares in the risk and the cost.
7. If a U.S. Marine asks for a better rifle, we should build it; and the same goes for software. We should as a country be capable of continuing a debate about the appropriateness of military action abroad while remaining unflinching in our commitment to those we have asked to step into harm’s way.
8. Public servants need not be our priests. Any business that compensated its employees in the way that the federal government compensates public servants would struggle to survive.
9. We should show far more grace towards those who have subjected themselves to public life. The eradication of any space for forgiveness—a jettisoning of any tolerance for the complexities and contradictions of the human psyche—may leave us with a cast of characters at the helm we will grow to regret.
10. The psychologization of modern politics is leading us astray. Those who look to the political arena to nourish their soul and sense of self, who rely too heavily on their internal life finding expression in people they may never meet, will be left disappointed.
11. Our society has grown too eager to hasten, and is often gleeful at, the demise of its enemies. The vanquishing of an opponent is a moment to pause, not rejoice.
12. The atomic age is ending. One age of deterrence, the atomic age, is ending, and a new era of deterrence built on A.I. is set to begin.
13. No other country in the history of the world has advanced progressive values more than this one. The United States is far from perfect. But it is easy to forget how much more opportunity exists in this country for those who are not hereditary elites than in any other nation on the planet.
14. American power has made possible an extraordinarily long peace. Too many have forgotten or perhaps take for granted that nearly a century of some version of peace has prevailed in the world without a great power military conflict. At least three generations — billions of people and their children and now grandchildren — have never known a world war.
15. The postwar neutering of Germany and Japan must be undone. The defanging of Germany was an overcorrection for which Europe is now paying a heavy price. A similar and highly theatrical commitment to Japanese pacifism will, if maintained, also threaten to shift the balance of power in Asia.
16. We should applaud those who attempt to build where the market has failed to act. The culture almost snickers at Musk’s interest in grand narrative, as if billionaires ought to simply stay in their lane of enriching themselves . . . . Any curiosity or genuine interest in the value of what he has created is essentially dismissed, or perhaps lurks from beneath a thinly veiled scorn.
17. Silicon Valley must play a role in addressing violent crime. Many politicians across the United States have essentially shrugged when it comes to violent crime, abandoning any serious efforts to address the problem or take on any risk with their constituencies or donors in coming up with solutions and experiments in what should be a desperate bid to save lives.
18. The ruthless exposure of the private lives of public figures drives far too much talent away from government service. The public arena—and the shallow and petty assaults against those who dare to do something other than enrich themselves—has become so unforgiving that the republic is left with a significant roster of ineffectual, empty vessels whose ambition one would forgive if there were any genuine belief structure lurking within.
19. The caution in public life that we unwittingly encourage is corrosive. Those who say nothing wrong often say nothing much at all.
20. The pervasive intolerance of religious belief in certain circles must be resisted. The elite’s intolerance of religious belief is perhaps one of the most telling signs that its political project constitutes a less open intellectual movement than many within it would claim.
21. Some cultures have produced vital advances; others remain dysfunctional and regressive. All cultures are now equal. Criticism and value judgments are forbidden. Yet this new dogma glosses over the fact that certain cultures and indeed subcultures . . . have produced wonders. Others have proven middling, and worse, regressive and harmful.
22. We must resist the shallow temptation of a vacant and hollow pluralism. We, in America and more broadly the West, have for the past half century resisted defining national cultures in the name of inclusivity. But inclusion into what?
Excerpts from the #1 New York Times Bestseller The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West, by Alexander C. Karp & Nicholas W. Zamiska
https://t.co/8igjazz1On
Let me walk you through the events of the war so far:
1. The United States and Israel tried regime change; it didn’t work. Or rather, they got regime change—Iran became an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–led military dictatorship. That was not an improvement.
2. The U.S. won an overwhelming military victory with air and naval power and scarcely a boot on the ground. But it destroyed less of Iran’s missile- and drone-launching capabilities than at first appeared.
3. Then there was a hostage crisis. Iran took both the Gulfies and the Strait of Hormuz hostage. The result was a massive economic shock for the world that required a rapid resolution.
4. The choice was between 1) military escalation (boots on the ground or strikes on Iranian infrastructure), and 2) a diplomatic deal. Trump chose 2.
5. In Islamabad, the U.S proposed big economic concessions in return for some kind of change in the status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, as well as the reopening of the strait. Contrary to the president’s social media feed, the Iranians did not accept.
6. In any case, the devil of any deal will be in the details, not the Truth headline. (When the small print finally comes out, every former Obama and Biden official will be ready to tell The New York Times that it’s worse than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.)
7. Meanwhile, the Iranians have survived regime change and discovered that closing the strait is just as powerful a lever in economic warfare as they had always hoped. It’s not, despite the Russian quip, an “economic nuke,” because unlike a nuclear weapon you can use it.
8. Where we go from here is fairly predictable. I would be surprised if Trump now deploys ground forces. There will be more negotiation, so Islamabad, here we come. There may have to be more bombing, if the Iranians dust down the North Vietnamese playbook of stringing the U.S. negotiators along. And the final compromise will take longer to be agreed upon than Mr. Market currently believes. The consensus in prediction markets is this will be over by the end of May, but remember: It took Henry Kissinger more than four months to get the 1973–1974 oil embargo lifted.
Elon Musk just put a number on the flaw at the center of Nvidia’s empire.
Wall Street has not done the math yet.
Nvidia’s Blackwell is the most sought-after silicon on Earth.
Every AI lab wants it. Every sovereign nation is bidding for it.
Blackwell runs every model, for every company, in every data center on the planet.
That universality built the empire.
It is also the fracture point.
Musk: “We believe the AI5 chip will be about a third of the power of an Nvidia Blackwell for roughly comparable performance. And much less than 10% of the cost.”
One-third the power.
Comparable performance.
Less than ten percent of the cost.
Musk: “This is a chip that is very much optimized for the Tesla AI software stack. It’s not meant to be a general purpose chip.”
Nvidia builds silicon that serves a million different customers.
Every transistor spent on universal compatibility is a transistor not dedicated to one task.
Tesla is building silicon for exactly one customer.
Itself.
When you strip away every function you will never call, you do not get a lesser chip.
You get a weapon.
Here is what the market refuses to see.
Data centers drink unlimited power from the grid.
Robots run on batteries.
Musk: “In order to have a functional robot, you have to have a great AI chip. And it needs to be an inexpensive chip and it needs to be very power efficient.”
You cannot put a Blackwell inside a walking machine.
It would drain the battery before it crossed the room.
The entire AI revolution lives inside air-conditioned buildings bolted to the electrical grid.
Musk is not competing for that market.
He is engineering the silicon that survives outside of it.
One-third the power is not a spec sheet footnote.
It is the physics threshold that severs intelligence from the wall socket.
Without that number, every robot on Earth stays tethered.
With it, the algorithm walks.
Less than ten percent of the cost is not a pricing strategy.
It is the line where a machine brain stops being a capital expenditure and becomes a commodity component.
When the chip inside a humanoid costs less than the motors in its legs, you do not manufacture hundreds of robots.
You manufacture millions.
Wall Street is valuing the AI revolution by who dominates the data center.
Musk is building the only silicon designed to leave one.
Nvidia built the brain of the cloud.
Musk is building the brain of the physical world.
No one has priced that in yet.
DAN IVES SAYS THIS IS NOT A TIME TO PANIC ... THE 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW
Exclusive Dan Ives @DivesTech Interview
- SpaceX and Tesla will merge?!?!
- We're in year 3 of a 8 to 10 year buildout and the market is pricing Nvidia like its year 7
- Autonomy and Humanoid Robots are real ... Your 8-year-old won't need a driver's license because of Autonomy
Shoutout to @Futurenvesting for Co-hosting
(Bookmark this post ... clippers feel free to take clips from the video and post it 🫡)
The pricing tiers for AGI are something like (1) $20/month, (2) $200/day = ~$75,000/year, (3) $1,000/day = ~$350,000/year, and (4) ~$10 billion. For now.
1/ Goldman Sachs analysts report that the biggest oil crisis in history is about to hit globally, with profound and highly destructive consequences. A new report asks ""Are We Running Out of Oil?", and concludes that the answer is yes. ⬇️
The man who INVENTED modern AI just made a billion dollar bet that ChatGPT, Claude, and every AI company on earth is building the wrong technology.
Yann LeCun won the Turing Award in 2018 for creating the neural networks that made AI possible.
He spent a decade running AI research at Meta. Oversaw the creation of Llama and PyTorch, the tools that half the AI industry runs on.
Then he quit.
And raised $1.03 billion in a seed round.
The LARGEST seed round in European history. $3.5 billion valuation before generating a single dollar of revenue.
Bezos wrote the check. So did Nvidia. Samsung. Toyota. Temasek. Eric Schmidt. Mark Cuban. Tim Berners-Lee (the guy who invented the internet).
His new company is called AMI Labs. And it's built on one thesis:
Every AI company spending billions on large language models is wasting their money.
ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok. They all work the same way. They predict the next word in a sequence. See "the cat sat on the" and predict "mat." Scale that to trillions of words and you get something that sounds intelligent.
But LeCun says it doesn't UNDERSTAND anything.
It can't reason. It can't plan. It can't predict what happens when you push a glass off a table. A two year old can do that. GPT-5 cannot.
That's why AI hallucinates. It doesn't have a model of how the world actually works. It just predicts words.
His solution? Something called JEPA.
Instead of predicting words, it learns how the PHYSICAL WORLD works. Abstract representations of reality. Not language but physics.
Think about what that means.
Current AI can write your emails. LeCun's AI could design a car, run a factory, operate a robot, or diagnose a patient without hallucinating and killing someone.
The CEO of AMI said it perfectly: "Factories, hospitals, and robots need AI that grasps reality. Predicting tokens doesn't cut it."
And here's what's really crazy to me...
LeCun isn't some outsider throwing rocks. He literally built the foundations that ChatGPT runs on. He knows exactly how these systems work because he helped create them.
And after watching the entire industry sprint in one direction for three years, he raised a billion dollars to run the OPPOSITE way.
No product. No revenue. No timeline. Just pure research. He told investors it could take YEARS to produce anything commercial.
But they funded it anyway in just four months.
Meanwhile OpenAI just raised $120 billion and still can't stop their models from making things up. Anthropic is building AI so dangerous they're afraid to release it. Google is burning billions trying to catch up.
And the guy who started it all says they're all solving the wrong problem.
Two Turing Award winners raised $2 billion in three weeks betting AGAINST the entire LLM approach. LeCun at AMI. Fei-Fei Li at World Labs.
The smartest people in AI are quietly building the exit from the technology everyone else is betting their future on.
Either they're wrong and the trillion dollar LLM industry keeps printing.
Or they're right and every AI company on earth just built on a foundation that's about to crack.
Everyone is covering the force majeure. Everyone is covering the 13 million tonnes. Everyone is covering the gas prices and the geopolitics and the five-year timeline.
My good friend Veron Wickramasinghe just asked the question nobody else is asking: how do you rebuild when the machines that make the molecules take three to four years to manufacture, ship through a closed strait, and commission in a war zone?
Read what he found.
Every LNG train at Ras Laffan requires high-purity nitrogen from Air Separation Units: cryogenic plants cooling air to minus 190 degrees to distil it into component gases. Pearl GTL needs 30,000 tonnes per day of pure oxygen from eight Linde-built ASUs. Each cold box: 470 tonnes, 60 metres tall. Lead time from contract to commissioning: three to four years. If destroyed, replacement arrives no earlier than 2029.
But here is the choke point that Veron identified that nobody else has. The heart of every cryogenic ASU is a brazed aluminium plate-fin heat exchanger called a BAHX. These exchangers operate with temperature differentials of one to two Kelvin and require precision brazing in vacuum furnaces. Only five companies on Earth are qualified to manufacture them. Five. For every cryogenic heat exchanger in every air separation unit, every LNG train, every industrial gas facility, and every hydrogen plant on the planet. Fives Cryo in France. Kobelco in Japan. Linde in Germany. Sumitomo in Japan. Chart Industries in La Crosse, Wisconsin. Current lead times: 12 to 18 months or more. And their order books are already full.
Veron was honest about what is confirmed and what is not. QatarEnergy CEO al-Kaabi confirmed LNG Trains 4 and 6 are damaged: 12.8 Mtpa offline, 3 to 5 year repairs, $20 billion annual revenue loss, force majeure up to 5 years. Shell confirmed Pearl GTL Unit 2 needs roughly one year of repair. What has NOT been confirmed is whether the ASUs themselves were destroyed. Shell’s one-year timeline is inconsistent with total ASU loss, which would require four to five years. Veron flagged this honestly and gave you the analysis both ways.
And then he showed you the cascade nobody else sees.
Qatar produces one-third of the world’s helium from the same facility. Helium is irreplaceable in semiconductor fabrication: cooling wafers, purging chambers, detecting leaks. Samsung and SK Hynix import 64.7 percent of their helium from Qatar. Spot prices have doubled. Liquid helium vaporises within 35 to 48 days. Fourteen percent of capacity is permanently damaged.
The LNG trains, the ASUs, and the helium plants all sit on the same rock, fed by the same gas field, accessed through the same strait. One set of missile strikes on March 18 to 19 took out 17 percent of global LNG, threatened one-third of global helium, and exposed a supply chain that runs through five workshops in Germany, France, Japan, Italy, and Wisconsin with three-year lead times and full order books.
This is what Veron understood that the headline analysts missed: the recovery is not constrained by money or political will. It is constrained by vacuum furnaces, aluminium metallurgy, and the physics of brazing at tolerances measured in single-digit Kelvin. You cannot accelerate physics. You cannot surge-produce a 470-tonne cold box. You cannot commission cryogenic equipment in a war zone.
Five companies. Five workshops. Three-year lead times. Full order books. A closed strait. An active war.
That is not a recovery timeline. That is a sentence. Read Veron’s full analysis. It is the most important thing written about this war that does not involve a missile.
"A society that has secured abundant energy, industrial production, and physical safety creates the conditions in which political attention can migrate upward into questions of identity, moral positioning, and self-actualization." 1/6
I'm Italian. After my thread on Italy's hidden cities blew up, a close French friend called me.
"You did Italy. Now do France. But don't embarrass yourself, let me 'elp."
We spent a weekend going back and forth. He'd suggest a city, I'd research it. I'd push back, he'd prove me wrong. By Sunday night, we had a list.
7 hidden cities in France that most people, including most French, will never think to visit, let alone move to.
No crowds. No tourist markup. Insane quality of life.
🧵