Chris Hunt

PhD Psychology researcher turned swing trader. Here to share market insights and learn from others.

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

$SDGR

One of my favorite set ups in the market from a risk reward standpoint. On the reward side, we have the makings of a high tight flag, forming with excessively large price spikes, companied by large volume on a daily chart. Like any pattern, there is nothing magical about high tight flag. It merely shows that institutions were caught off guard by their perception of the business and rapidly repriced it. The start is now wired down, significantly showed healthy supporting action of a 10 SMA on Friday, which is where I entered. However, story gets even more interested in using the monthly chart. The 28.43 level was our archive for early 2025 sitter the top of the current base. Not only to the stock breakout from that level this week, but on three straight days, it showed a low that was suspiciously close to that exact level, indicating that the current cohort of investors are willing to support it.

From a risk standpoint, the 10 day SMA is a clear line of sand where demand should pick up. Assuming that excessive accumulation represent represents investors who are going to be unwilling to sell, any increase in demand should drive the price sharply higher. In other words, if new investors want to go into the stock, they’re gonna have a hard time, prying shares away from the institutions that excessively accumulated them during this most recent ride has this type of movement clearly shows conviction of the underlying business. If the 10 SMA is not defended, the thesis about demand picking up or about current investors willing to support the stock of that level is clearly wrong and the position should be exited. What’s more, the rapid price movement means that the 10 day SMA is going to overtake Price very quickly, so even if the stock closes flat on Monday it will have failed to hold this level and should be exited presenting a relatively low risk hold.

That said, there’s always a possibility that the stock gaps well below the 10 day and causes a more substantial loss that should occur. Fingers crossed that doesn’t happen to me on Monday.l!

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

EOW update:
$QMCO: 15% size, +23% profit, trimmed 20% at 32.00
$BE: 19% size, +11% profit
$MRNA: 14% size, 11% profit
$SMTC: 17% size, 7% profit
$INTC: 12% size, 13% profit
$ARM: 17% size, 2.5% profit
$RBRK: 17% size, 3% profit
$ETHU: 14% size, 2% profit
$SDGR: 13% size, 1.5% profit

General thoughts: i’m trying to gradually whittle down to my core holdings. I cut $FSLY for a small gain after it broke the 10 day and $CRCL for a small loss after it broke the 21 EMA. Also tried $BLSH in order to get more exposure to crypto, but was stopped break even. Trying my best to not over trade at this point as I have at least a few stocks with nice cushion that I’d like to just work.

My bias right now is Delean bullish given what we’ve seen in the leaders and how QQQ broke powerfully upward after under cutting the bottom of the most recent choppy base last Thursday. That said, this is nowhere near abroad rally, and there are many stocks that are breaking down or failing to break out. As always, strategy is to stick to the leading themes and pick stocks showing impressive accumulation during the most recent run-up followed by volatility contraction, volume dry up, and respect for key, moving averages. $QMCO, $BE, $SMTC, and $MRNA our textbook examples of this. Institutions have shown their hand in my opinion and gobbling up shares and are refusing to give them up and even defend key levels. This constraint supply acts like a tinder box that can create a rapid rise in price with even mediocre demand.

I’m also biased towards names that are not as obvious or have yet to go on massive runs such as in the last rally from April to June. I remain skeptical that AI hardware is going to lead the market again. What I’m seeing is a bit of a shift toward applications of AI, such as in the biotech space, or consequences of AI, such as in cyber security. Crypto was also shown this rapid price rise and heavy accumulation, followed by range, contraction, and volume dry up. I have yet to be able to get much of a foot hole in the space, but it remains a top focused next week.

At this point, I’m going to be a bit more ruthless when it comes to cutting stocks that are reaching my cost basis and extremely selective when it comes to adding new names. A big mistake I made in previous all markets was over trade and dilute the power of my big winners to lift my equity curve. The only names I will consider adding our leaders and leading spaces that are offering A+ set ups with relatively tight risk. Examples include $Tem or $IBUT flagging into their 10 SMA.

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

One of the lessons I learned during the two first major rallies I participated in is how important it is to get into leading stocks early, with size, and simply let them coast. During the April rally, I was in some great names from early April ($MU, $amd, $arm, $nbis etc) and had an amazing run; BUT, it could’ve been ever better had I not trimmed and traded around them so much, as well as aggressively tried to get into other stocks I had missed. Those two things greatly reduced my equity curve from what it could’ve been.

This time, my plan is to be super aggressive early on - I want to be on heavy margin during the beginning of the rally, not the end. Got some great initial cushion on some leading names with size, plan is to try and just sit back and let them work — only taking new trades if it’s an A+ stock with an A+ risk to reward setup.

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

Not that anyone even reads this but my first prediction on here turned well. Broke out over the previous high and big volume up about 15% on the day. I’m long from about 25.50.

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

$QMCO
One of the best set ups in the market right now that I don’t see anyone talking about. Huge accumulation on that four day stretch following earnings and has now been digesting gains nicely - volatility, contracting, volume, disappearing, making lower lows throughout the digestion. I wanted to wait for rehearsal off the 10 but frankly, I’m not sure it’s gonna make it there. I bought when buyers reclaim control off the lows today. If this thing gets to new highs, I think it could explode.

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

$QMCO
One of the best set ups in the market right now that I don’t see anyone talking about. Huge accumulation on that four day stretch following earnings and has now been digesting gains nicely - volatility, contracting, volume, disappearing, making lower lows throughout the digestion. I wanted to wait for rehearsal off the 10 but frankly, I’m not sure it’s gonna make it there. I bought when buyers reclaim control off the lows today. If this thing gets to new highs, I think it could explode.

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

“Falling into a moving average is not an entry” (paraphrased — from @ohiain). This is one of the most helpful pieces of advice for my trading that I have come across, and it helped me get a great entry on $FSLY today.

What I used to do is front run the moving average — I’d guess the bottom and try to get as close to it as I possibly could. The reasoning of course is that the MA represents a logical stop (usually), so if your entry is closer to the MA, you risk should be lower. Sounds reasonable right? Until you realize that stocks are falling into various “logical” MAs all the time where they SHOULD turn around… but the vast majority of them fail. So you might get an amazing entry on one stock, but accumulate losses on nine others, leading to over trading on a very low win rate.

So what’s the alternative? Once the stock gets near the MA, look for buyers to reestablish CONTROL. If demand picks up near the MA, its likelihood of working out goes up dramatically.

So how do you operationalize buyers regaining control? No correct way from what I can tell — it more has to do with balancing failure rate with risk level. Use too low an evidence threshold? Higher failure rate. Too high? Stock has likely moved far from logical stop. For me, I define *potential* regain of control as the stock closing above its previous high on the 10 minute chart. Using a shorter timeframe is simply too noisy, leading to over trading on a lot of false positives. Conversely, because I’m trading high ATR names, using a longer timeframe often means the stock has moved significantly from the MA, making the entry too far from the logical stop.

The action in FSLY illustrated this perfectly as it attempted to bounce/reclaim the 10 day SMA. The stock initially flushed through the 10 and then demonstrated what looked like a convincing reclaim in the first half hour, getting a few percent above the 10 day. Critically though, this bounce never closed above the previous high of the bar on the 10 minute chart (where the X is in the picture), indicating buyers did not necessarily yet have the upper hand. The stock subsequently crossed back through the 10 and looked poised to break down. Had you bought this bounce, you would quickly be underwater and likely out of the stock assuming the 10 was your stop.

However, later in the morning, it reclaimed the 10 day WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY CLOSING ABOVE THE HIGH OF THE PREVIOUS 10 MINUTE BAR (see circled portion). The stock went on to rip about 18% off this level by session close.

Do they always look like that? Definitely not. But had I been wrong the risk would’ve been limited. Meanwhile, many stocks that fail to bounce from KMAs never clear the previous high on the 10 min chart, so it also keeps your failure rate contained.

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

$QMCO
One of the best set ups in the market right now that I don’t see anyone talking about. Huge accumulation on that four day stretch following earnings and has now been digesting gains nicely - volatility, contracting, volume, disappearing, making lower lows throughout the digestion. I wanted to wait for rehearsal off the 10 but frankly, I’m not sure it’s gonna make it there. I bought when buyers reclaim control off the lows today. If this thing gets to new highs, I think it could explode.

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

Current open positions: $MRNA, $SKHY, $SMTC, $BE, $TEM, $RBRK, $TQQQ

closed out: $SWKS (small gain), $NOW (small loss), $CRM (small loss), $HOOD (small loss), $CRCL (shorted, small loss).

Current thoughts/strategy: I believe we are well positioned to resolve the three months of chop. We’ve been in and I’m positioned accordingly. Thursday is closed was abnormally strong given current condition conditions, and there was follow through today on the major indexes. There’s still several hurdles to get through technically in order for this to develop into a broad rally; that said, rallies of late tend to develop when macro conditions do not appear favorable creating a wall of worry that pulls more and more people in from the sideline fueling higher prices. My strategy is therefore to try and get in to some of the leading stocks just as they are breaking out or ascending the right side of their base, as market tail wins from abroad rally could cause these to have explosive runs. I’m particularly focusing on stocks that did not already go on massive runs in the last rally from April to June and/or are transitioning from stage one to stage two. $RBRK for instance, while it looks short-term extended, actually just broke out of a massive one year base on a weekly chart as a Friday’s close through the $103 pivot. $TEM is another, which along with other AI related medical stocks could potentially be the leader of the next cycle. My entries on some of these are not the greatest and there’s a strong possibility I get shaken out below my stop. That said, I’d rather focus on finding a way into what I believe our leaders than taking a perfect set up in a mediocre stock.

We are coming up into a significant gap that has yet to be filled on NASDAQ so early next week will be very very telling. Things turn south. I’ll be getting out of pretty much all of these. Excited for what next week will bring

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

@RealSimpleAriel This is me 100%. Gave it back following the April 2025 bull run, then again following the April/May 2026 bull run. Determined to never let it happen again

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

Ended the day 100% cash. Current account size $80,286.

Closed out $MRNA slightly above break even. Took repeated losses attempting to short AXTI as it hit declining MAs and into what should’ve served as supply. Sized it too much and kept repeating the same mistake. This will end up being my 3rd straight -2% day in a room.

I decided to put on $TQQQ after hours at around $708 (for QQQ). I was so demoralized at the day I had during regular hours that I didn’t comprehend just how bullish a close that was — undercut the previous 8/14 low and close above it in big volume. With everything so negative that close stuck out like a sore thumb and seems like it could be the beginning of another lockout rally that climbs a wall of worry. Position size is about 20%. Stop is $700. My plan is to see if we get followed through tomorrow and if so, I’m gonna be looking to buy any leaders breaking out of tight areas.

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

Made the decision today that I want to create a digital record of my trading on X. I very much still classify myself as a novice trader — I do great and have tremendous runs during the April 2025 and April 2026 bull runs, over doubling my account. However, I am terrible at dealing with choppy markets — over trading, over sizing, losing money on longs, on shorts; if there’s a mistake to be made in a choppy market I’ve made it. Consequently, I gave a huge chunk of my gains during these stretches. Peak EC was a little over 200k, currently all the way back down to 140k…

I’m hoping journaling on here I’ll learn over time to be a better trader and not keep making the same mistakes. The stock market is endlessly fascinating to me, it would be my dream to do this as a full time job. But I’m a far way off from there still, particularly when it comes to discipline. Will post by closing account size here for transparency and accountability.

Will also say I have 5 kids, so lots riding on the success here. Here’s to hoping I can turn things around and get consistent at this so one day I can quit my day job and spend more time with them while still supporting them. Cheers to anyone who read this! Thanks!

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

Seeing lots of people talking about the potential $INTC here. Yes I’m a rookie trader by most standards. There’s probably hardly anyone reading this, but for the record, I just don’t see it. What I see is two large volume bars (circled below) where a fairly large cohort of investors got long and quickly had the trade turn against them for a loss. They are now holding in a loss frame, which likely means they are looking for the opportunity to break even. Friday’s range stop suspiciously close to the low of the first two of those bars where those investors got long, hinting that they may indeed be serving a supply. Price movement is simply a game of probabilities. The downside risk is only amplified by a downward sloping 50, which is gonna be very attractive to potential shorts entering the trade. Doesn’t mean the stock can’t rip but it’s simply not high probability set up in my opinion. Let’s see how this plays out this week!

[Chris Hunt @ChuntTrades]

rally my biggest pet peeve is traders anthropomorphizing stocks. Stocks are not alive, they don’t have (actual) personalities, and there is nothing magic about any specific pattern. Stocks are merely groups of PEOPLE — and price movement merely the collective psychological states of the current holders. Understanding who is currently in the stock and what their psychological state is (eg are they in a gain or loss frame?) gives you such a deeper understanding price movement. Thank you for being one of the only traders I follow who recognize this reality