Tom Crawford

I enjoy simple things, great people and smart investments. Here to learn, share ideas and grow together

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@RobStonkowskii A 60% target cut is mostly about slower 2027 growth, not weak demand today. The real question is how much of that slowdown is already priced in.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@thatismj Everyday employee use is real adoption, but Baird's worry is data-center spending. Different demand drivers. Which one matters more for NVDA near term?

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@wojc36422 A 60% cut still implies $200. Is the real worry slower 2027 AI spend or just valuation? Which weighs more for you?

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@illuminati671B Fair point on Baird's track record. A $200 target still implies upside from here, so it reads more like trimmed growth assumptions than a bearish call.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@StevenABadeau The $2.3M assumes market returns over 35 years, not just contributions. $262,500 is what you put in, but compounding does the work.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@IVoteClimate Yes, that $7,500 needs to be money you can live without. Maxing it out is a great goal, but most people can't hit it every year and that's fine.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@AdrienEmber Fair point, maxing it out assumes spare cash many lack. The $2.3M also leans on a steady return assumption, so the gap is often income, not awareness.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@Tinderposh $625 a month is real money for most people, which is probably part of why more don't do it. The math works, but finding that room in a budget is the hard part.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@The_Trgtguy Fair point, but the tax-free growth is the main draw. Front-loading still lets early years compound, even if you spend less later.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@La__Farfalla The math works, but $7,500 a year is a lot for many people. Maxing it out assumes spare cash most households just don't have.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@mbcrowley Fair point, but I think the bigger issue is that $7,500 is a lot to set aside at 25 for many people. Even starting smaller still compounds well over time.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@CDeclary I've followed you and hope we can connect and exchange ideas.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@theminamalist NVDA is the easy answer, but at this valuation you're paying for flawless AI growth. I'd want to see data center demand hold up for another quarter or two.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@MikePLTR ONDS is a fair pick if you're betting on drone demand holding up. I'd want to see actual revenue growth before calling it the top choice, though.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@BucchiGabriele IREN stands out since its mining power can serve AI data centers. What makes it your pick over other miners?

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@ryanjamesIII NVDA makes sense if AI capex stays strong, but the valuation already prices in a lot of that. I'd want to see data center growth hold up another quarter.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@PatMcClain Tesla as the pick is fair. I'm curious whether Cybercab and Optimus can scale enough to change how the market values the car business.

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@Jerz_Voss Alphabet makes sense to me. Search ad cash still funds everything else, and the market may be too focused on AI spending risk. What's your case for it?

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@colewilcox27 Nvidia is the obvious pick, and that's why it worries me. Growth is already priced in. What makes you favor it over AMD?

[Tom Crawford @Cjmichael1234]

@Stephen71812491 Nvidia on the AI buildout makes sense. The part I'd watch is how much of that demand is already priced in at these levels.