D.J. Rasmussen

Tweets about natural hazards, climate change impacts, data science, and risk + resilience policy. PhD @PrincetonSPIA @Princeton

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@ryankatzrosene Climate impacts research & practice should move to a GWL framework to not be as scenario dependent

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@Revkin @hausfath @RARohde Dunn et al. 2020,2024 (HadEX2/3) better handles the daily inhomogeneities. HadEX does show some regions with no warming of extreme T or declines in extreme T
https://t.co/72WppIoa9f

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@ryanweather There are statistically significant trends in large hail, but not in Wisconsin: https://t.co/3W9flYdrjd

And the presence of trend does not always mean "climate change"-caused. Climate change attribution is very challenging to do well (if it is even possible at all).

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@MatthewWielicki Dunn et al. 2020 also shows this and underpins ch 11 of AR6. https://t.co/n4yvRjbxtL

See also Dunn et al. 2024

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@MattDevittWX Mostly agree. But managing false positives matters too, and forecast skill for surface wind extremes is still much better than for flood impacts. That gets even harder when impacts depend on local factors like levees, drainage, and exposure.

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@RARohde Assumes stationarity in variance, which may be a poor assumption.

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@RARohde after LOESS detrending, the anomaly has about 0.02% annual chance of occurrence/exceedance (Weibull fit). 2022 anomaly was also remarkable.

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@RARohde @KHayhoe The '23 extreme cold event looks more anomalous than the '26 event!

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@ryankatzrosene I accounts for some aspects of inflation via the CPI, which measures out-of-pocket prices paid by consumers. This leaves out important factors like building labor and materials as well as the market value of structures.

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@RogerPielkeJr I am waiting for someone to write one big paper comparing near-term CMIP projections with ERA5 trends to show discrepancies across many variables. The models just don't align at local scales in many places. This hugely impacts their utility as biz and insurance decision tools.

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@kareem_carr Makes sense.

The recent uptick in Springer Nature's Discover "xyz" journal requests I get asking for reviews makes me wonder if publishers will take advantage of the increased volume

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@ryanweather Boggles my mind how earthquake scores don't appear on these sites despite the much greater risk

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@ryanweather A few unlucky years and the cost of capital/labor has increased dramatically since '20.

The NBER paper does not isolate any local climate change signal.

As long as people keep buying policies at these prices, reinsurers will keep charging them.

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

The Geography of Gloom ☁️☁️

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

New online Wildfire Mitigation Plan Database from PNNL. Over 400 wildfire mitigation plans from 170 utilities across 19 U.S. states. Useful to understand, compare, and improve strategies for managing wildfire risks to power infrastructure.

https://t.co/hL3zD2ifwq

[D.J. Rasmussen @ClimateQuant]

@xarray_dev Nice!

[The New York Times @nytimes]

Scientists have made a white paint that can make surfaces as much as eight degrees Fahrenheit cooler than air temperatures at midday, and up to 19 degrees cooler at night, reducing inside temperatures and cutting air-conditioning needs by as much as 40%.
https://t.co/uILAa4AC5G

[Jeff Masters @DrJeffMasters]

After 100s of hours of research (including reading 8 books on sea level rise), I feel like I have a good grasp of the accelerating U.S. flood risk from climate change. Part 1 of my 3-part series is up; part 2 is Friday; Part 3 (the best one!) is Monday. https://t.co/oQtEnAvOFA

[Princeton University @Princeton]

A new method by #PrincetonU researchers to calculate increases in flood probabilities worldwide demonstrates the urgency of quickly implementing coastal defense measures to mitigate the impact of climate-related sea-level rise. https://t.co/LalQXywXS1