Everyone romanticizes trading...
BUT
eventually trading will be the most boring part of your life.
I trade for 90 mins a day, and have the rest of the day to do pretty much whatever I want
literally just finding my A+ setup, planning the trade, and waiting for an entry to trigger
if the setup triggers I take, set my stop and let the trade work..
if not i come back the next day
boring. simple. repeatable
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is evaluating setups without considering the environment they're trading in.
A breakout can be the exact same pattern on two different days and produce completely different results.
Why?
Because the market backdrop matters.
As @Qullamaggie says:
"You want to trade aggressively when the indexes are above their 10/21 EMAs, ideally when they're rising. That's when the big money is made."
Most traders read that quote and move on.
Instead, go study it.
Pull up charts from periods when SPY and QQQ were above rising 10 & 21 EMAs.
Then compare them to periods when the indexes were below those moving averages or when the averages were flattening out.
Look at:
-Breakout success rates
-Relative strength leaders
-Follow-through after entries
-Number of stocks making new highs
-Average trend duration
-How often pullbacks get bought
You'll start to notice something:
The best stock setups tend to appear when the overall market is providing tailwinds.
Many traders spend years trying to perfect entries while ignoring the single factor that has the biggest impact on their results... the market environment.
Before analyzing individual stocks, analyze the conditions those stocks are trading in.
The trend of the indexes often determines how much opportunity is available.
Making money trading over a long period of time is quite simple...
It comes down to 2 things:
1. Make a ton of money when the markets are in strong trend
2. Keep your money when the markets become choppy
Most don't have the patience for #2
There are days to trade relative strength
&
Days to track relative strength
Today is more about tracking for me, and doing less...
Good some good buys into key levels yesterday now sit and wait to see what and where gets traction
$HIMS
Setting up in a big daily cup base
Positioned to take advantage of the peptide boom...
Relative strength + healthcare sector starting to emerge
Keep a close eye on this one into the summer
$DE
Setting up in a massive weekly wedge base off the 50 week EMA
Retesting the prior all time high breakout
Industrials stocks are sneakily setting up in some massive weekly bases and showing relative strength..
Could get moving with $XLI
$CARR
Making new highs today while the market tests the 50 EMA has to be notable right?
Incredible breakout and relative strength here...
Data center cooling name.
The amount of stocks setting up in big bases off the 8 week EMA right is ridiculous...
$VIAV
$INTC
$AMKR
$OUST
Few more weeks, and many of these could be ready.
The UnR will be your best friend in the coming weeks...
As stocks start to setup in big bases, trying to trade this chop and catch breakout without momentum will be difficult
BUT
The undercut and rally can save you from the chop
Incredible UnR's today across the board
Not the last time you will see these opportunities so make sure to train your eyes.
The move in these names really describes the type of environment we are in... PICKY
All great setups going into today
$CRDO and $VECO breaking out higher and showing relative strength
$AAOI and $COHR putting in a failed breakout and back to the 50 EMA
Just the way the game goes.
One of the most important things Ive learned in trading is:
Focusing on stocks that are in the upper right hand corner of your screen
Not stocks trying to bottom.
Not stocks "that look cheap."
Not stocks that are down 80%.
The biggest winners are usually making new highs, holding above key moving averages, and showing persistent relative strength.
Our brains are trained to look for "deals", on stocks that are way oof the highs and lagging...
But when you start training you eyes to look for stocks that are leading, you'll start seeing that they are leading for a reason...
The best stocks go higher for a reason.
This changed the way I scanned the market...
I know scan for:
-52 week highs
-Stocks that doubled over 52 weeks
-Above the 21 EMA and 50 SMA
-Relative strength vs. the market
-Accumulation volume
-Strong sectors and themes
These stocks create my larger watchlist that I review each day for setups, in the stocks/groups that are the strongest....
Instead of trading A+ setups in lagging groups/sectors
I have a feeling we might all look back on this day 3-4 weeks from now, and think why didn't we slam the buy button...
First test of the 8 week & 50 day EMA after 2-3 months of straight up
Could be wrong but thought this spot was worth a shot
The 30m pivot might single handedly be the best reversal strategy I've ever seen in the markets
Combine this with a high probability level like a key moving averages or gap support
& you have an incredibly high probability low risk approach to buying pullbacks..
got long $RKLB today off the 50 EMA + 30m pivot
bought some $MSCHP off the 50 EMA + 15m pivot
& added some $TE off the 8 week EMA + 30m pivot
If you are looking to buy relative strength on weakness this is about as good as it gets.
Today felt like an eternity
From +$100k P&L at the open
To
-$100k by mid day
Back to +$15k by the close
Stomaching these kind of swings is still pretty insane to me, even after years of doing being in this game.
My favorite setups into the rest of the week
Massive daily bases in the optics sector & incredible relative strength
SK Hynix aims to double wafer capacity over the next five years because AI demand is driving unprecedented growth in memory:
$AAOI
$CRDO
$VECO
$COHR
These look ready to move.
$HOOD
Setting up in a big weekly base right off the weekly EMA cluster
Starting to change its character, acting much better recently and showing some r/s...
Now setup in a tight daily flag... Inside day printed today
Break over 85.63, can get it moving to $94.3
$OSCR
Textbook breakout out of this massive weekly base
Impressive relative strength over the last few sessions...
Targeting: $36+, for new all time highs in the coming weeks