Clive

Former Currency trader, now a full time mathematician and father of two wonderful children.

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@DanNeidle @ChrisWhittle66 I can easily get a medium use sim only plan for £5-10 in the UK. Ireland is €10-12 minimum. It’s similar if you look at a lot of European countries.

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@v_j_freeman It’s been debunked by people who were at Citi at the time many times. I could look around our (rates and FX) trading floor at another big US bank in London at he wouldn’t even be in the top 20 for any years around that period. Not even top 100 if you go IB wide across all regions

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@darioperkins @MrMBrown I think we play out same way, valuations got very high very fast, arguably not reflecting high energy prices at all. We prob grudgingly justify those values at some point but trade sideways for the summer with ups and downs +/-5% from here. Earnings this week maybe change that?

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@darioperkins @MrMBrown This time around, drawdown was less but happening faster, partly because everyone remembers lib-day price action and using that as a playbook. 26.15k to 22.85k (-3.3k) on Iran news, took just over two weeks to regain level, then another 2 weeks to go to 27.3k =+1.15k (50% more).

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@zugzwangE4 @TheMichaelEvery First who says China are paying a toll, second it’s not against current int’l or maritime laws, but stopping a ship from passing through international waters *is*. Actually stopping a ship, the navy of its flag is bound to come help, and if that’s China and they send their navy🤷‍♂️

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@PauloMacro “Hardly generated a ripple in […] bond markets”
🤣🤣🤣
Slightly lost for words.

[Simon French @Frencheconomics]

I always think if you are going to talk about credibility, an important first step is to spell it correctly.

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@Frencheconomics An averaged pension lock (call it triple-lock-plus!!) Something like taking the three strands of triple lock over a rolling 3 or 5yr look back period, rather than 1yr, avoids situation where one year of high CPI skews things so much. This would still be fair, but much cheaper.

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@donnelly_brent West coast is where all the best bits are IMHO, Kerry, Galway, Donegal, just drive up the coast and stop in local places. A couple of days in Dublin and Giants Causeway in the north should be on the list, Belfast as well, just stick to the bits next to the sea and you'll be fine

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@AndreasSteno It only has value if the company is prepared to sell the BTC and buy back shares, which under Saylor it’s not gonna do. Also you’d have to hedge by shorting BTC which has costs. Above 0.8 it’s not a value play it’s more of a BTC play, but if that’s your thesis, just buy BTC 🤷‍♂️

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@kristoberg @DanNeidle Widening the VAT base without cutting the rate can be quite inflationary, cutting the rate at the same time as widening the base neutralises most of this effect. If inflation was at 2% you may take the chance but with a 3.8% headline rate you need to be more cautious.

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@markoinny Given that a lot of the moves in financial markets nowadays are driven by (essentially) people gambling on big upside, the crypto story is old hat and price action is struggling, and AI is where it’s at. Dip buyers in NVDA will outnumber those in BTC 10:1.

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@markoinny The crypto narrative was that wider adoption and benign US govt sends it higher. And we went from ~70k to ~125k since the election. But from here if you are looking for growth and the next big thing it’s AI and $NVDA. So all the hype chasers have moved on from crypto >> AI.

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@darioperkins @MrMBrown “The beatings will continue until morale improves!”

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@MrMBrown I loaded up when the US and Europe started seizing Russian assets in 2022 thinking various CBs would want to decrease amount held in USTs (gold obvious alt) and again in 2024 when we properly broke the LT top. The macro reasons are still in play but time to take some profit.

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@ChrisGiles_ Food inflation (component of the overall UK CPI index) is +36.8% in the four years from August 2021-2025, which is an annualised rate of over 8% and still rising over 5% in the last year so it’s not like it’s going down or even under control.

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@ChrisGiles_ And for the 50% of the population that are struggling with the cost of living, 80-90% of their post tax spending goes on food/energy/rent, three sectors that have all seen way above headline inflation for several years now (since 2022).

[Clive @ClivePonsonby]

@investingLive_ Most of that is the price rise, the actual holdings by Troy Oz went from 74.02m to 74.06m which is 40k Oz or $150-160mn worth or 0.05%. The interbank amount for gold is 5k or 10k Oz in one quote, so when I was trading gold we’d buy this amount in one call out taking ~2 minutes.