Clive Arnold

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

It’s like a scene from a farce:
Home Office sources have confirmed that one person sent to France under the UK-France treaty – which allows people who cross the Channel to Britain in small boats to be sent back in exchange for bringing the same number in France to the UK via a legal route – is now back in the UK. He returned by a small boat.

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

No comment.

[Amelia Adams @neuroticjewgay]

LIVE FROM GLASTONBURY 2025!!!!!

[Chris Rose @ArchRose90]

In 2023, Rachel Reeves promised to “crack down on Tory minister’s jet habits”.

Newly released government figures show David Lammy has burned through a staggering £1,360,780 on flights between January and March this year.

So much blatant hypocrisy.

[Robert Peston @Peston]

We just learned that the world’s most powerful person, Donald Trump, has a boss: the bond market.

He may not have acknowledged this to himself, yet, but the global financial tumult he caused - and has temporarily eased - has locked him in a fiscal prison.

Because, as I have been saying for 24 hours, he came perilously close yesterday to having caused such an extreme fall in the price of US government debt that it would have become prohibitively expensive for his administration to fund a large deficit - more than 6% of GDP - and also to refinance the almost $8 trillion of government debt that matures in the coming year (almost a third of America’s sovereign debt).

The point is he is totally in hock to the good will of bonds investors.

And when he announced his reckless roster of massive tariffs eight days ago he alienated them, because they feared he would tank the economy such that tax revenues would plummet and the deficit would balloon.

So they sold US government bonds, Treasuries, and the yield on the bonds - the de facto interest rate - soared.

Which is why Trump blinked, and put on hold the more extreme tariffs, except for the 140% on China, for 90 days.

You might think the worst part of this is the uncertainty he has created for businesses and investors for the next 90 days. Since no one in their right minds would make a major US investment till the final tariff determinations are made.

But the cancerous uncertainty is not the worst of it.

The worst of it is he has shredded any respect that overseas governments and investors might have had for America’s economic and fiscal competence.

Shades - you might say - of how Truss and Kwarteng’s unwise unfunded tax cuts undermined the perceived fiscal competence of the UK.

But unlike Truss and Kwarteng, there is pretty much no mechanism for removing Trump.

All of which means that bond and stock markets will remain fragile and volatile - fearful that Trump will regain his mojo and engage in some other fiscal extravagance.

He has also handed a loaded gun to his perceived enemy, China, and his supposed ally Japan.

This matters in both cases, because he is engaged in the mother of all trade wars with China - and Japan wants a trade deal with him that would see it escape mega tariffs.

The loaded guns they have are their massive loans to the US government. Japan owns more than a trillion dollars of US Treasuries and China not much less.

If they were to sell those bonds, or even if they chose not to refinance maturing bonds, that could be a disaster for Trump. Because it could cause another potentially crippling spike in bond yields.

Here is the measure of Trump’s debacle.

He may well have trashed America’s single most important financial competitive advantage, namely that investors have traditionally bought the dollar and US Treasuries at a time of economic and political uncertainty.

No more - because he personally has become the world’s source of economic uncertainty snd anxiety.

So, as I say he, is now in a fiscal prison. And if bond investors, including Japan and China, see him imposing tariffs or cutting taxes in ways they don’t like, they learned yesterday they have the means and power to stop him.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

This is unusual.

Yesterday, politician Marjorie Taylor Greene said that people panicking over tariffs are "losers and failures."

Today, she disclosed over a dozen stock purchases, purchasing hundred of thousands of numerous stocks.

She bought when the market was deeply red.

Unusual.

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

After tanking stock markets, Trump’s tariff tsunami now provokes selloff in US Treasurys. The yield on the 10-year benchmark note, the reference point for trillions of dollars in loans and securities, rose as high as 4.47% this morning, before falling back a little.
US federal government must refinance $9 trillion in sovereign debt maturities this year plus another $2.5 trillion in fresh borrowing. Foreign capital usually picks up a big part of this tab. Good luck with that this year, Mr Trump.

[Robert Peston @Peston]

What we are watching is Trump’s tariff-induced crash turning into a Truss-style fiscal crisis. The collapse in US government long bonds, Treasuries, is startling, scary. It is precisely the opposite of what Trump and his advisers expected and wanted. It partly reflects heightened fears of US recession - which would see ballooning of US deficit - and may also be revenge selling by sovereign holders in tariff-hit countries. This bond market turmoil also increases risk of margin calls and forced sales by over exposed institutional investors. Another huge day.

If the US government struggles in its auctions when selling new government bonds to fund its current deficit, at that juncture surely Trump capitulates to market pressure. The other actors to watch are the central banks - the Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank - and whether they are obliged to act intervene by cutting interest rates and providing liquidity

[Jon Sopel @jonsopel]

Is it weak and stupid to ask why your life savings have gone down the toilet for no apparent reason?

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

The OBR shows that annual environmental levies will rise from £12billion this year to £15billion by 2029/30.
All of that is charged to fuel bills.
So much for renewable energy = cheaper energy
So much for that £300 off household bills Labour promised.
And the OBR does not include the cost of all green subsidies.
So the levy on fuel bills is even higher.

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

If Europe’s leaders don’t realise they’re on their own after these leaks from Trump’s cast of clowns, then they never will
https://t.co/i9P3UESgmj

[Kate from Kharkiv @BohuslavskaKate]

Is this a final-final wake-up call for Europe, or not yet?

[Jon Sopel @jonsopel]

Dear ⁦@elonmusk⁩,
We’ve heard a lot about free speech, and how you’re a free speech absolutist.
So how can you justify shutting the accounts of Turkish opposition leaders?
Am sure it’s consistent and logical.
Just struggling to see
🤷🏻‍♂️ https://t.co/RsrEZFgcKL

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

Chancellor Reeves still peddling the fiction on TV this morning that tax rises in last October’s Budget were forced on her by the £22bn Tory ‘black hole’ in nation’s accounts. Let’s deal with that once and for all before Wednesday’s Spring Statement.
Let’s accept, just this once, the ‘black hole’ even if, contrary to her claims on Sky News today, the OBR has never acknowledged its existence.
She taxed and borrowed by far more than necessary to fill in the alleged black hole — because she wanted to increase public spending, which she did by £70bn.
She financed this by £40bn more in taxes and £30bn more in borrowing.
She did not have to do anything like that to fill in her black hole.
But by doing what she did she lost the confidence of consumers, business and investors.
This has slowed the economy to a crawl and created a new black hole of her own making. Which she will attempt to fill in with spending cuts on Wednesday and, no doubt, more tax rises come next April’s Budget.

[J Stewart @triffic_stuff_]

Great British Energy Chair, Jeurgen Maier, reveals GB Energy will not deliver what Starmer promised.

He can’t say when energy bills will be reduced like we’ve been promised by Starmer.

He also says it could take up to 20 years to deliver the promised 20,000 jobs.

Liars lie🤥

[🇨🇦🍁SillyRabbitFaFo🍁🇨🇦 @sillyrabbitfafo]

LMAO This is Canada 🇨🇦

#Trump #TrumpTariffs

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

JD Vance dismissing Britain as ‘some random country’ which hasn’t ’fought a war for 30/40 years’ is beneath contempt. British forces fought alongside US troops in Iraq (twice) and Afghanistan. In recent years. Is he stupid? Or just ignorant?

[CALL TO ACTIVISM @CalltoActivism]

This is Marco Rubio explaining how the USA promised to defend Ukraine forever if they got rid of their nuclear arsenal left after the Soviet Union fell.

This is why lil marco was sinking into the couch. He was hoping we wouldn’t find it…so don’t RT right now this very second.

[The Lincoln Project @ProjectLincoln]

Kamala Harris told us exactly what was going to happen.