A coal-fired power plant in China's Dai city. China emits more CO2 every year than the rest of the developed world combined—completely cancelling out all the sacrifices you are being forced to make in the farcical pursuit of Net Zero.
I know many of those bureaucrats, the farmers are right, shame and fear is the only thing that will get to them.
In the fall of 2019 I attended a private roundtable hosted by the Dutch Ministry of Ag, looking to get industry input for their nitrogen reduction committee.
Because our company was involved in farm data integration they saw us as being aligned with their agenda to mandate data reporting and instill nitrogen quotas. All we really wanted to do was build farmer apps for nutritionists and de-commodify higher quality products that get lost in the supply chain.
I knew enough about politics to view them with disdain going into the meeting but was surprised by exactly how little they knew about agriculture.
They approached the nitrogen soil levels as if it was on the verge of spiraling out of control without a solution, referring to it as a crisis. This is despite the fact Dutch nitrogen levels have decreased by over 50% since the 90’s. Soil health has been steadily improving for decades because of advances in farming techniques, many of which were pioneered by the Dutch themselves.
I went on to elaborate on how farmers are incentivized to reduce their reliance on fertilizers and other chemicals not only because it leads to marginally more valued products, but because it drastically reduces farming costs. Chemical inputs are the largest single farming expense. Healthy soil requires almost no chemical inputs.
Tilling removes weeds and aerates soil but disrupts the soil biome, unhealthy soil then requires artificial fertilizers to grow crops. Crops relying on higher levels of artificial inputs are less healthy and have more decomposing matter. Decomposing matter attracts insects which spread disease, requiring higher levels of pesticides. Avoiding tilling can exacerbate weeds, requiring more herbicides.
Farming is incredibly complicated and regional. If you don’t know exactly when insects will come you may have to spray everyday for weeks to minimize the chance of catastrophic failure. If you don’t know when and which crops to rotate, your soil will degrade. If you don’t have your soil tested, mapped out and integrated into the tractors spray system you won't be able to reduce reliance on fertilizer use to primarily the areas that need it.
The more you can improve your soil health through precision agriculture, crop rotation, livestock integration and other methods, the fewer expensive inputs you require to keep it healthy. Healthy livestock also require fewer expensive antibiotics, which have been rapidly declining in use due to better animal nutrition and digital diagnostics. Farmers are incentivized to continue these pre existing trends but they cannot accelerate any faster than the proliferation of knowledge and technology in the market.
Every study shows that if you track any regulatory standard, the strictness of the law will roughly correlate to the level of economic development of a country. You cannot mandate something that doesn't have the infrastructure to exist. Regulations dont advance technology outside of the margin, they primarily exist to favor a specific practice suited to corporations that lobby the most successfully, or they serve to cut off production.
Based on this information I advised they should rejoice. It is not an accelerating problem that requires drastic action and it is already being solved without them through the incentives of the system. Not only that, but wiping out the farms that could not meet the high standards would only shift production away from what are still some of the most advanced farms in the world to areas with lower production standards, including Brazil which is developing a large Dairy export market.
Their sunken faces indicated that these were the worst words they could have possibly heard. They needed to elevate the problem and establish themselves as a crucial part of the solution, to satisfy not only the Dutch government's quota of 30% nitrogen reduction by 2030, but their own conscience while doing so.
Their look of helpless dismay made me realized the bureaucrats don’t pull the strings, they spend most of their time trying to create alternate realities in their head for why they are the good guys and are needed, as they subconsciously follow career incentive structures laid out by powerful corporate and financial interests, who in this case were looking to consolidate market share through scale prejudicial regulations and engage in land grabs of high value farm real estate for commercial development.
The bureaucrats who consciously understand this dynamic either drop out cynically, or reach the highest levels.
The creative solution the government came up with to meet the target was to cull 30 percent of the dairy herd, over 500,000 cows. Proving my point that the only way to meet the target faster than the market was ready would be to cut production.
This plan was quite predictably met with serious outrage. Leading to years of historic protests Farmers in the Netherlands and across Europe that successfully pushed back against EU standards. In early February 2024 the EU removed the demand to reduce nitrogen, methane and other emissions linked to farming by one third from a “wider Brussels plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90 per cent by 2040.”
A warning to the farmers, it is a lot easier to take a target out of some paperwork and put it back in or adjust the numbers later than it is to organize a massive protest. Where there is an agenda there will be a continued effort and testing of what we will tolerate.
No logic or plea for reason will stop them. Only social shame and the loss of their career incentives will stop these bureaucrats from carrying out whatever target the EU gives them.
I tried to distill why farmers are so angry into a single tweet. Summery as follows - We’ve had enough of working for nothing, to produce something everyone needs, while being told we’re doing a shit job of it, by people who’ve never done it.
I think that covers it?
In my lifetime: atmospheric carbon has risen by 50%
But also:
World population ⬆️76%
Cars on the road ⬆️225%
Air passengers ⬆️575%
Oh, and let’s not forget…
worldwide cattle ⬇️ 5%
Let’s act on the true cause and not what the money “tells” us to do. Credit: @thisfarmlife