Clue

Full time macro fixed income trader/researcher. Part time equities and crypto punter. Proven positive EV views through confirmation bias.

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

@jnordvig That being said, I like to fade this pop.

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

@jnordvig This is a relief rally. Market is overwhelmingly short after that massive rally to start the year and despite an in-line to slightly high print, the structural components seem optimistic. Market is covering shorts here as short term outlook for hawkish sentiment is disappearing.

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

@Rager Dovish Powell supporting the market

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

All in all, pretty expected. Hawks Mester and George hit the bond market, and Powell comes in more balanced and dovish, leading to a recovery. Swaps market overreacting a bit and getting ahead of treasuries, perhaps some vol traders delta hedging downside.

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

Equities market lagging the rate market. Rate market finished the selloff shifting to higher rates last Friday. I read today's equity dump followed by a retracement as stopouts and poor risk sentiment followed by repricing to friendlier interest rate outlook.

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

@AndreasSteno In order to flatten, we have to move some of the hike path upwards even after Eurodollars have been moving in excess of +10bps in the Z3 area in the past few trading sessions. You might be right, but where's the catalyst for faster/more hikes in the short term?

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

@zerohedge Goldman now seeing 4 hikes 2022z Fed funds market has been pricing 3 hikes with FFZ2 at 87bps so this is a pretty hot take. Banks shifting hawkish

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

@zerohedge Hard to be this black and white about rate locks because, sometimes issuance gets hedged in swap too, especially for the financial companies that traditional issue in jan

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

@JamieHu23436822 @zerohedge I’m talking about price space to be clear. Bond selloff = interest rates rising. I mean rates rising

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

@Appyg99 Everyone I meet in finance identifies with either Ben Kim or Dollar Bill

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

7/7
Bad data prints flatten out the yield curve aggressively, fading the large flattener we've seen in the past week and send 10s swap spread spread soaring.

I am short vol against large bearish data prints here. I think medium term 1 month-ish outlook is short spreads.

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

1/x
Some thoughts about USD belly/intermediate swap spreads: TLDR: they are going DOWN.

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

6/x
What are the risks here?
1. Further high vol selloff in a meaningful magnitude can force a lot more convexity payers, depress issuance in the very short term, and send spreads to the moon.

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

I have a feeling that the most popular twitter investment crypto community is highly influenced by survivorship bias. Every account out there can call crypto bets, some just happen to be right several times in a row and build a following. Real alpha is in the reasoning.

[Clue @Clue_Trading]

@IncomeSharks Let's not forget why technical analysis like this works. When people see key levels like 40k in btc, they tend to disproportionately put bids there, forming a "support". No one trades total market cap of crypto directly, so support levels are not quite as meaningful.