Full Wednesday Betting Card ⚽️⚾️
We Are Coming Off A 5-0 Day
•Payton Tolle Over 5.5 Strikeouts
•Phillies MoneyLine
•Cubs MoneyLine
•Seth Lugo Under 4.5 Strikeouts
•World Cup Day 2 Ladder 🪜
MLB Wednesday Best Bet
Payton Tolle Over 5.5 Strikeouts
(+105 B365)
The Red Sox were forced to burn through five relievers Tuesday after Connelly Early exited with elbow discomfort. With the series on the line, they’ll be counting on Tolle to provide length and keep the bullpen fresh.
Tolle has been outstanding at home since Mother’s Day, posting a 2.51 ERA while clearing this strikeout line in 4 of his last 5 home starts. He also enters this matchup off his best outing of the season, carrying a no-hitter into the 7th inning against the Yankees while punching out 7 hitters.
The swing-and-miss profile continues to stand out. Tolle owns a 35% chase rate, ranking among the league’s best starters, and that number jumps to 40% against left-handed hitters, showing his ability to consistently generate whiffs.
Washington has handled left-handed pitching well overall this season, but they’ve cooled off recently. Four straight left-handed starters have recorded 6+ strikeouts against the Nationals (Luzardo, Sánchez, Rogers, and Suárez), while Connelly Early was on pace for another strong strikeout performance before leaving with injury.
Full Tuesday Betting Card ⚾️
•Dodgers MoneyLine (-149)
•Phillies -1.5 (-100)
•Mike Burrows Under 4.5 Strikouts
•Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 Strikeouts
25$ To Someone Who ❤️ & Follows If We Sweep
⚾️ MLB Tuesday Best Bet
Brandon Sproat Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
The Reds continue to be one of my favorite lineups to target for strikeouts. They’ve had inconsistent production lately, with several hitters struggling and plenty of swing-and-miss throughout the order.
Sproat’s strikeout numbers haven’t always reflected his upside this season, largely because of difficult matchups and shorter outings. Recently, though, he’s been working deeper into games, giving him more opportunities to pile up strikeouts.
The matchup is familiar—he faced Cincinnati just a week ago and completely dominated, recording 10 strikeouts against this same lineup. While there’s always some risk seeing a team twice in a row, his stuff clearly played well.
He’s also around -200 to record Over 14.5 Outs, which suggests he’s expected to pitch into at least the fifth inning. If he reaches that workload again, six strikeouts is well within reach.
Cincinnati’s lineup features hitters throughout the order with elevated strikeout rates against right-handed pitching, making this another strong spot to back Sproat’s swing-and-miss ability.
🌎⚽️16 Picks. One Dream.
The Road to World Cup glory starts now.
Built around tournament favorites with star power from Haaland, Mbappé, and Messi, this is my biggest World Cup parlay yet.
💰 $50 ➡️ $3,784.71 (+7569)
Who’s riding?
⚾️ MLB Best Bet #1 | 6/28
Luinder Avila o3.5 Strikeouts
Avila has quietly settled into the rotation and his strikeout numbers have taken a noticeable step forward with the increased workload. Excluding the Houston start where he was pulled after just two outs, he’s gone at least five innings in every outing while recording:
6 Ks vs. Tampa Bay
5 Ks vs. Washington
3 Ks vs. Minnesota
5 Ks vs. Cincinnati
That’s 4+ strikeouts in 3 of his last 4 full starts, and the opportunity should be there again today.
The matchup is favorable against a Chicago lineup that has struggled all season versus right-handed pitching, hitting just .232 with a 23.5% strikeout rate. They lack consistent contact throughout the order, with several projected starters hitting below .245, creating plenty of swing-and-miss potential.
Avila’s season-long K/9 doesn’t fully tell the story because it includes multiple relief appearances earlier in the year. Since joining the rotation, he’s been allowed to face 20+ hitters regularly, giving his slider and four-seam fastball more chances to pile up strikeouts.
If he reaches the fifth inning again, this number is very attainable. Four punchouts is a fair ask in one of his better strikeout matchups to date. 👊
🏀WNBA Late Night Play
Azzi Fudd UNDER 14.5 Points
• She draws arguably the toughest defensive matchup in the WNBA. Minnesota ranks 1st in defensive rating and allows the 3rd-fewest points to opposing guards.
• Over their last five games, the Lynx have allowed the 2nd-fewest above-the-break threes, 2nd-fewest mid-range points, and 3rd-fewest points at the rim—the three areas that make up 79% of Fudd’s scoring profile.
• Against teams ranked in the top five defending above-the-break threes, Fudd is 0-5 to this line, averaging just 8.4 points per game.
• She’s already faced Minnesota twice this season and finished with 6 and 8 points, staying well below this number both times.
• The increased opportunity from injuries is already reflected in the line. The matchup is the bigger factor here, and it’s a brutal one. Minnesota has consistently eliminated the shots Fudd relies on most, making this one of my favorite WNBA unders on today’s board.
Full Saturday Betting Card
❤️ Like if you’re riding.
• Ronaldo Anytime Goalscorer (+125)
• Harry Kane Anytime Goalscorer (-180)
• Portugal Moneyline (+101)
• Orioles/Nationals Under 8.5 Runs (+115)
• Brewers Moneyline (-148)
• White Sox Moneyline (-115)
• Jake Bennett Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+133)
⚽️ World Cup 2-Leg Parlay 💰🔥
Two of the best finishers in world football. That’s all we need.
🇬🇧 Harry Kane Anytime Goalscorer (-182)
🇵🇹 Cristiano Ronaldo Anytime Goalscorer (+120)
⚾️ MLB Best Bet #1 | 6/27
Jake Bennett Over 4.5 Strikeouts
(+120 FanDuel)
Bennett’s strikeout numbers started slow this season, recording just 3 Ks against Houston and 1 against Tampa Bay in his first two starts. Since then, he’s turned a corner, posting 4, 5, and 9 strikeouts over his last three outings.
During that stretch, he’s punched out 18 hitters across 16.1 innings, averaging well over a strikeout per inning. His most recent start was his best of the year, firing 6 scoreless innings with 9 strikeouts against Colorado while allowing just four hits. His command looks sharper, his confidence is growing, and the swing-and-miss stuff is showing up consistently.
On the season, Bennett owns a 3.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 22 strikeouts in 26.2 innings. He’s also walked just 4.7% of opposing hitters while generating an elite 40.3% chase rate, a strong indicator that hitters are expanding the zone. His changeup has become a true put-away pitch, especially against right-handed hitters.
The Yankees have respectable numbers against left-handed pitching overall, but there are several hitters in this lineup who have struggled in the split. Austin Wells, Spencer Jones, Jazz Chisholm, and José Caballero have all posted below-average production versus lefties, giving Bennett multiple favorable strikeout matchups. His sinker/changeup combination also profiles well against New York’s right-handed bats and should continue to generate plenty of whiffs.
At plus money, I like the value here. If Bennett continues throwing the way he has over his last three starts, 5+ strikeouts is well within reach.
🏆 World Cup POTD 🏆💰
🇫🇷 France ML (-160)
❤️LIKE if you’re riding!
France has everything to play for, with a win securing the top spot in the group. Meanwhile, Norway is expected to rotate several key players after already clinching a knockout-stage berth, with reports indicating stars like Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard could be rested or have their minutes managed.
France is expected to roll out a much stronger XI and, on paper, still has the most talented squad left in the tournament. This is a great spot to back Les Bleus at a reasonable price.
⚾️ MLB Best Bet | Friday
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 HRR
This is one of those spots where I don’t mind paying a little juice. Reynolds gets the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott, and the numbers say it’s deserved. He’s gone over this line in 10 of his last 15 games (66.7%), averaging 3.2 HRR over that stretch compared to 2.3 HRR on the season. He’s simply seeing the ball better right now.
Lefties haven’t slowed him down all year. Reynolds is hitting .326 with a .421 OBP, .520 SLG, and a .394 xwOBA against southpaws. Add in a 52.1% hard-hit rate and 11.3% barrel rate, and it’s easy to see why he ranks in the 91st-92nd percentile across nearly every key offensive category in this split.
Abbott leans heavily on a four-seam fastball, and that’s exactly where Reynolds does damage. He’s batting .292 with a .542 SLG against four-seamers, but what really stands out is how he handles Abbott’s secondary stuff. Reynolds owns a .389 AVG against sliders and an absurd .818 SLG against curveballs, giving him multiple paths to success no matter what Abbott tries to attack him with.
He’s already 2-for-5 against Abbott in his career, he’s swinging it well entering tonight, and the matchup checks every box. I’ll gladly back Reynolds to stay hot and clear this number again.
World Cup Best Bet🌎
Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer🇫🇷
⚾️LIKE IF YOU’RE RIDING
Some players are matchup-dependent. Kylian Mbappé isn’t one of them.
He’s already buried 4 goals through France’s first two World Cup matches and continues to add to an all-time World Cup résumé with 16 career goals in just three tournaments.
France still has first place in the group to lock up, so expect a motivated starting XI. Norway, on the other hand, has hinted at squad rotation after a demanding stretch—potentially opening the door for one of the world’s most dangerous finishers.
Mbappé has also scored in 8 of his last 10 appearances for France, producing 11 goals over that span. Surrounded by creators like Olise, Dembélé, Doué, Cherki, and Barcola, he should see plenty of quality chances.
This isn’t just backing a superstar—it’s backing the focal point of an elite attack that’s still playing with something on the line.
🇪🇨CASH IT. UNDERDOGS DELIVER.
Ecuador gets it done at +395, taking down Germany in one of the biggest upsets of the tournament.
A $100 bet turned into $495.