Since 1926, the stock market has crashed:
📉 1929: -86%
📉 1973: -48%
📉 2000: -49%
📉 2008: -57%
📉 2020: -34%
AND YET, it increased by 10.3% per year, or +1,400,000% over 99 years.
Ignore the noise. Invest.
this chart goes back to 1972 and has never printed this number
The 3-week realized vol of the momentum factor is now 4x the vol of the S&P 500. Not 1997, not 2000, not 2008, not the 2021 unwind. Never.
Translation: the index is quiet while the stocks inside it swing like it's a crisis. Winners get dumped, losers get squeezed, and the rotation eats momentum traders alive.
When maximum churn meets minimum index movement, someone is handing over a lot of shares. Distribution rarely announces itself louder than this.
Something broke in the momentum trade
Goldman's High Beta Momentum basket peaked on June 22. Three weeks later it's down 32.8%. The only comparable unwind in this chart's history: late 2021, minus 34.2%, right before the 2022 bear market.
The surface looks calm. The index barely moves. But underneath, the hottest stocks of this cycle are getting liquidated at 2021 speed. Gamma squeezes in the morning, air pockets in the afternoon, violent rotation all day long.
Indexes tell you the weather. Factor baskets tell you what's actually happening.
@Polymarket Mass scanning of private communications approved by the institution that writes GDPR is a level of cognitive dissonance that deserves its own case study
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Here are 6 early warning signs of common cancers you should NEVER brush off.
1. Colon Cancer = Blood in your stool.