Zak Bigelow

Former college CFB staffer. I built a CFB betting model (Biggs' Playsheet) and show my work. Power ratings, market reads, verified record below.

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

Ten years in football taught me the game. It took losing a pile of money to learn I didn't know it as well as I thought.

Here's the short version.

I played in college. Then I spent 7 seasons on a Division 1 staff. Left to run my own program as a high school head coach for 3 more. Then I stepped away from all of it to be home, raise my kids, and coach their teams instead of chasing the next job.

You don't get the game out of your blood that easy.

So I did what a lot of ex-coaches do. I started betting college football to scratch the itch. Figured I'd been in the rooms and seen the tape, so I knew better than the guy setting the number. Easy money, right?

Wrong. I bet like a square, and the market took my money the same way it takes it from everyone who thinks like that.

That one stuck with me. So I went back to work, the only way I know how.

The last 5 years I tore my whole process down to the studs. Learned from players sharper than me. Built my own models and systems, tested all of it, kept what held up and threw out what didn't. Three years running now, I've been profitable.

Time to engage with all of you.

I'm not selling picks. I'm showing the work. The breakdowns, the numbers, the model behind every play I post. It's called Biggs' Playsheet, and I'm opening it up.

Tail me, fade me, come argue with me in the replies. All of it makes us sharper.

If you love this game and you're tired of guessing, you're in the right place.

I'm Coach Biggs. Let's get to work.

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

@Steponaduck @Big12Pokes Don’t know about lock, but I do like the over.
Probably too juiced now

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

In this house, we believe in Drew Mestemaker!

Oklahoma State comes in at No. 59 in my P4 rankings, next door to the basement of the Power 4, but Oklahoma State is a perfect example of why you need to read the whole analysis. So before the fine folk of Stillwater try to put my head on my spike outside of Eskimo Joes, let me tell you why I'm higher on a 2025 1-11 team that returns roughly 25 of 85 bodies. Spoiler alert, a lot of it comes down to two letters: Q and B.

Quick lesson on that No. 59. My Playsheet rank isn't one list, it's a weighted blend of three: a Vegas-style rank that leans on my coaching eye and how the lines value a roster, a pure model-based rank built off production and efficiency, and the live market. Two of those three are all the way up on Oklahoma State. My Vegas-style rank has them 46th and the market has them 46th. The model-based rank drags them to 73rd, and that 73 is the anchor pulling the blend down to 59. Model-based ranks always have the hardest time with teams that just gutted and rebuilt through the portal. The model is staring at a 1-11 season and a roster that returns almost nobody, so it has nothing to chew on and spits out a bottom-feeder number. It can't fully appreciate the new bodies or a top-five portal haul fronted by the nation's leading passer. When my eye and the market both sit 27 spots ahead of the model on a team that overhauled its roster, that gap is usually exactly where the value hides.

Back up to how Stillwater got here. Mike Gundy gave that program 21 years, but the last two went 3-9 and 1-11, and it ended with a home loss to Tulsa they hadn't suffered since the Truman administration and a 69-3 hanging at Oregon. And trust me, when I was coaching at Tulsa, Oklahoma state wasn't losing to us. So they ate the buyout, moved on, and made the most interesting first-year hire in the league.

Eric Morris is the real deal and you need to understand the coaching tree. He coached inside receivers and was the OC at Texas Tech when a kid named Patrick Mahomes was slinging it. He took the Incarnate Word job and developed Cam Ward from a zero-star nobody into a future No. 1 overall pick, then followed him to Washington State as OC. Then he went to North Texas and went 12-2 in 2025 with the nation's leading passer. This is a Leach-tree air-raid guy who has had a future pro under center at basically every stop, and now he gets a Power 4 budget for the first time.

And the QB he brought with him is Drew Mestemaker, and I have to come clean: I'm in love, and I've won real money being in love. Here's how I found him. Two seasons ago I had a seven-leg parlay (+2343) alive into the First Responder Bowl, North Texas and Texas State, and the last leg I needed was Under 64. I felt bulletproof, because North Texas was starting a true freshman walk-on who had not started a football game since the NINTH GRADE. In high school he played safety and punted. In what world does that kid show up and play well? Well of course in this one, because we live in a simulation. Dude went 26-of-41 for 393 yards and two scores, ran for 55 more including a 70-yard touchdown, and lost 30-28. My under still cashed, but Mestemaker made it a huge sweat and I've been all-in on him since.

Could have been a one hit wonder....but it wasn't. In 2025 he led all of FBS in passing yards (4,379) and touchdowns (34) against nine picks, completed 68.9%, dropped 608 on Charlotte, and carried North Texas to 12 wins. His personal QB guru Jeff Christensen, the guy who trained Mahomes, said on record he could be "the next Tom Brady." Mock drafts already slot him as a top quarterback. Huge arm, pushes it down the field, aggressive with the ball (maybe a touch too aggressive) and now he's back with the coach who built the offense around him. My data has him in the 91st percentile of returning QBs. He's the swing, and he's the reason I won't bet against this team. (1/2)

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

@mcillecesports And here’s the parlay ticket where I fell in love with Drew Mestemaker. Will forever appreciate @TheTailgateTent accepting my DMs and chatting me through that final leg.

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

In this house, we believe in Drew Mestemaker!

Oklahoma State comes in at No. 59 in my P4 rankings, next door to the basement of the Power 4, but Oklahoma State is a perfect example of why you need to read the whole analysis. So before the fine folk of Stillwater try to put my head on my spike outside of Eskimo Joes, let me tell you why I'm higher on a 2025 1-11 team that returns roughly 25 of 85 bodies. Spoiler alert, a lot of it comes down to two letters: Q and B.

Quick lesson on that No. 59. My Playsheet rank isn't one list, it's a weighted blend of three: a Vegas-style rank that leans on my coaching eye and how the lines value a roster, a pure model-based rank built off production and efficiency, and the live market. Two of those three are all the way up on Oklahoma State. My Vegas-style rank has them 46th and the market has them 46th. The model-based rank drags them to 73rd, and that 73 is the anchor pulling the blend down to 59. Model-based ranks always have the hardest time with teams that just gutted and rebuilt through the portal. The model is staring at a 1-11 season and a roster that returns almost nobody, so it has nothing to chew on and spits out a bottom-feeder number. It can't fully appreciate the new bodies or a top-five portal haul fronted by the nation's leading passer. When my eye and the market both sit 27 spots ahead of the model on a team that overhauled its roster, that gap is usually exactly where the value hides.

Back up to how Stillwater got here. Mike Gundy gave that program 21 years, but the last two went 3-9 and 1-11, and it ended with a home loss to Tulsa they hadn't suffered since the Truman administration and a 69-3 hanging at Oregon. And trust me, when I was coaching at Tulsa, Oklahoma state wasn't losing to us. So they ate the buyout, moved on, and made the most interesting first-year hire in the league.

Eric Morris is the real deal and you need to understand the coaching tree. He coached inside receivers and was the OC at Texas Tech when a kid named Patrick Mahomes was slinging it. He took the Incarnate Word job and developed Cam Ward from a zero-star nobody into a future No. 1 overall pick, then followed him to Washington State as OC. Then he went to North Texas and went 12-2 in 2025 with the nation's leading passer. This is a Leach-tree air-raid guy who has had a future pro under center at basically every stop, and now he gets a Power 4 budget for the first time.

And the QB he brought with him is Drew Mestemaker, and I have to come clean: I'm in love, and I've won real money being in love. Here's how I found him. Two seasons ago I had a seven-leg parlay (+2343) alive into the First Responder Bowl, North Texas and Texas State, and the last leg I needed was Under 64. I felt bulletproof, because North Texas was starting a true freshman walk-on who had not started a football game since the NINTH GRADE. In high school he played safety and punted. In what world does that kid show up and play well? Well of course in this one, because we live in a simulation. Dude went 26-of-41 for 393 yards and two scores, ran for 55 more including a 70-yard touchdown, and lost 30-28. My under still cashed, but Mestemaker made it a huge sweat and I've been all-in on him since.

Could have been a one hit wonder....but it wasn't. In 2025 he led all of FBS in passing yards (4,379) and touchdowns (34) against nine picks, completed 68.9%, dropped 608 on Charlotte, and carried North Texas to 12 wins. His personal QB guru Jeff Christensen, the guy who trained Mahomes, said on record he could be "the next Tom Brady." Mock drafts already slot him as a top quarterback. Huge arm, pushes it down the field, aggressive with the ball (maybe a touch too aggressive) and now he's back with the coach who built the offense around him. My data has him in the 91st percentile of returning QBs. He's the swing, and he's the reason I won't bet against this team. (1/2)

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

The skill around him is more than good enough. The portal class landed No. 15 nationally and No. 2 in the Big 12 behind only Texas Tech, and on Mcillece's board it's a top-five haul in the entire country (@mcillecesports if you handicap college football and you're not in his data, you're behind). Running back Caleb Hawkins followed from Denton after a 1,431-yard, 6.2-a-pop season that graded 94.1 on PFF. Receiver Wyatt Young came too, and Morris added Rodney Harris II from Ohio, Justin Bowick from Illinois, Chris Barnes from Wake and Israel Polk from Akron. My projected-starter receiving grades (returning PFF grade, not saying this is a top 3 unit) rank top-three in the country. The offensive line is the quiet strength people are skipping: it's one of the most experienced units in the sport with roughly 117 career starts walking back through the door, and it grades top-15 in my returning pass-block and run-block numbers. The reason I always lived with the O-line as a player is they're the most important position and football (and the things they teach you about food is legendary), and this one is built to keep Mestemaker clean.

The defense is probably the difference between fighting for a bowl game and fighting for a top 25 finish, and it's a from-scratch rebuild. Here's my angle, and it's a name: Skyler Cassity. He's 31 years old and already in his fifth year as a coordinator. He built a legendary defense at Sam Houston in 2024, parlayed it into the North Texas job in 2025, and immediately took one of the worst defenses in the country and improved it by nearly ten points and ninety yards a game in a single season. Now he brings that scheme and a chunk of those players to a bigger stage, on a campus where his own father coached (Mike Cassity was a co-DC at OSU). It's not all green, either. The linebacker room is the veteran anchor of this team, grading top-five in my returning career-snap and coverage numbers, and the secondary's projected coverage grades sit inside the top 30. The front can rush the passer but is thin and unproven, tight end is light, and the kicking game is under a brand-new staff with Drew Svoboda. The fair question is whether a North Texas defense that was merely average, while playing behind an offense that ranked 13th nationally in pace and bailed it out, can hold up against Big 12 athletes.

So where do I land. My model is the cautious voice in the room at right around 4.8 wins, a hair under the 5.5 the market posted. But the books juiced that Over all the way to -178, which tells you the money already smells the bounce, and my coach's eye is north of the model, closer to 6 or 7. The honest read: at -178 the win-total Over is no price, so that isn't the bet. The bet I actually love all year is their game totals. Elite-pace, sling-it offense plus a defense that needs time to gel is the recipe for shootouts. Find good spots, ride the OVER, and back Mestemaker. If you want the other side, you're betting the North Texas magic doesn't survive the jump in league and a roster with 25 returners never finds chemistry, and I get it, that's the real risk. I'm just not the guy taking it. Go Pokes!

Where do you have the Cowboys landing in year one of the Morris era?

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

Then the defenses. Both are old and stout, TCU brings back a top-10 D-line in career snaps and one of the most experienced secondaries in the country, and veteran defenses against brand-new quarterbacks in Week 0 is how you get a rock fight. The o-lines tell you the same thing from opposite ends: TCU’s veterans want to grind it out, and Carolina’s line, 100th in experience, can’t stay on the field long enough to stack points.

And then there’s Ireland. Late August in Dublin is a coin flip with the sky, and these games have a habit of getting wet. Rain shows up, the ball gets slick, the under cashes.

So which is it, the model’s over or my gut’s under? When they split this hard I don’t bet it. That’s a divergence, and divergences are stay-aways for me. Stick a gun in my ribs in the rain and I’ll take the under, but I’m not playing this number, I’m playing the breakdown.

(O super fun Coach, thanks for the first play with no bet!)

Where I land: TCU’s better and probably wins, I just won’t lay a fair number into the best dog spot on the Week 0 board, and the total’s a fight my model and I flat disagree on. No play, both markets. Call it TCU 24-20, a wet, ugly, one-score Saturday in Dublin that never sniffs 49 (and I’m on my couch punching air I didn’t bet the under. I’m so rry @BarstoolBigCat I LOVE unders).

TCU to win, Carolina to cover, under if you twist my arm. Where do you have it? 🐸🐏

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

We broke down TCU, We broke down UNC, now let’s break down our first game of the year!

College football’s back and we open across the pond: TCU and North Carolina in Dublin, Frogs laying 6.5, total sitting at 49.5. I lean TCU, but I’m not laying it, and the total is where this one actually gets fun. But still no play for me. Let me give you both sides.

Spread first. TCU’s the better team and it isn’t all that close. My Playsheet has them 28th to Carolina’s 58th, the talent grades 16th to 47th, and they’re coming off 9-4 while the Heels limped in at 4-8. Where’s the gap show up biggest? TCU’s o-line grades 11th in the country in pass protection. Carolina’s came in 105th. In a Week 0 game that’s damn near the whole story: one quarterback plays clean, the other’s running for his life until Petrino gets that line coached up.

The quarterbacks are the other reason I’m on TCU, but only by a hair, because they both come with a question mark. Jaden Craig is a Harvard transfer, 6,000-plus career yards, 52 touchdowns to 12 picks, and I liked the Harvard tape. Big kid, word out of spring ball is positive, sounds like he threw the deep ball well.

BUT! The one time he saw real competition, though? He fell apart, 9 of 21 with 2 picks in a 52-7 FCS playoff loss to Villanova. That makes me hesitant to put my hard earned cash on him (he said in mid June knowing full well he wants to have money on the first game of the year.)

Billy Edwards is the other side of that coin: a real Maryland season in 2024 (2,881 yards, dropped 373 on USC), then 16 pass attempts in 2025 at Wisconsin before a knee shut him down. Now he’s on his third school in three years learning a whole new offense. Give me Craig’s spot over Edwards’, but barely.

So why won’t I lay the 6.5? The matchup gives Carolina a puncher’s chance for starters. That defensive front is legit, the returning starters grade 7th in the country rushing the passer (on returning pff grades) and Abou-Jaoude had 10.5 sacks, and TCU’s own pass rush graded 100th.

Then there’s the spot; Dublin eats favorites alive: last four openers over there the dog’s 3-1 against the number with three flat-out upsets, Northwestern over Nebraska, Georgia Tech over a top-10 Florida State, Iowa State over K-State a year ago (I was a winner on all 3). Only chalk that held was Notre Dame waxing Navy, a service academy(I lost, had the over). Neutral field, an ocean from home, Week 0, nobody’s tackled anybody yet, and the favorite’s got more to lose.

And here’s the one that really sticks with me. These two opened last season against each other, and TCU dropped 48 on Bill Belichick’s college debut. 48-14. TCU called off the dogs too, could have scored 60+. You think Bill forgot that? You think Carolina hasn’t had that game circled for a calendar year? It’s Year 2 now, the program’s settled, Petrino’s got the offense, and they’ve had twelve months to stew on getting smoked in his first college game. That’s a hungry dog, and it makes me want to lay 6.5 even less, as much as the raw talent tells me I should.

Now the total, and here’s where my model and my eyes start arm-wrestling. Our BPS number leans OVER, 51.2 to the market’s 49.5, and the history backs it up, these matchups have averaged right around 56 and the market’s parked all the way down at 49. On paper? That’s an over.

I still can’t get there, and it’s the scheme stuff the number doesn’t fully see. Start with pace, because neither of these guys calls a fast game, and TCU just brought in Gordon Sammis from UConn, who’s a run-first coordinator. That seems like a REAL departure from the Sonny Dykes air-it-out TCU everybody pictures. Will they want to pound it and shorten the game, fewer snaps, more clock bleeding off? Sounds like maybe.

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

@mcillecesports Thank you good sir! Excited to roll out my first matchup post between UNC and TCU tomorrow. Looking forward to see what you think of those

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

I'm previewing all 68 Power-4 Teams on our way to the 2026 Season, First up, #28 TCU.

The market rates them 40th. My roster models have them 23rd and 28th, and the raw talent grades out 16th in the country. This isn't a down year in Fort Worth. It’s a hell of a roster, the probably is a daunting schedule. I’m excited and high on TCU. Here's the breakdown :

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

And fun fact...I played at UNC. The University of Northern Colorado. Remember when the backup punter stabbed the starting punter? Yup that school, where I was the kicker, later a witness in the trial of said attempted murder case, and groomsmen of the starting punter's wedding.

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

Up next, The Tar Heels. It feels stupid fading the greatest NFL coach of all time, but I'm fading them. Vegas hung 7.5 wins on Bill Belichick's second year in Chapel Hill, and the country is hammering the under right back, it's one of the most-bet totals on the board. This is the one fade I keep arguing with myself about, but I see 6-7 wins most likely.

Start with why year one was a 4-8 mess. The offense was bad, 114th in the nation in success rate and 118th in explosiveness, and a big reason was the man calling it. Freddie Kitchens was the offensive coordinator, and that staff took Gio Lopez, a quarterback a lot of us actually liked, and ran him into the ground. So here's my honest question. Why do genius football coaches do terrible hires? Why did the greatest NFL coach of all time think that was going to work? Because no one analyzing the sport thought it was a good idea.

To his credit, Bill fixed it. He went and got Bobby Petrino. I love that hire. Now, I love Petrino with my eyes open. I remember exactly how and why he got that road rash down in Fayetteville, and I'm not here to relitigate it, but the man is a damn good football coach, and I believe he and Bill are going to work. Belichick is a first-ballot NFL mind still learning how this level actually operates, and now he's got a proven college play-caller in the building every single day. Petrino's Arkansas offense finished 18th in the country last year at 32.9 a game, and his identity has never changed: he wants to run the football downhill to set up a best-in-class play-action passing game. That only works if the offensive line grows up.

Which is the whole swing. That o-line graded 105th in pass protection last year, and you cannot run Petrino's stuff behind a leaky pocket and a crap run game. But I actually think it improves, for three reasons. One, the horrible coaching is gone. Two, the returning pieces are real: Aidan Banfield is a Freshman All-American anchor who's healthy again, and Christo Kelly, Belichick's very first portal commitment, is a 22-game starting center and a proven captain. His teammates voted him a captain and felt so strongly about him that they sent him out for the coin toss even after he got hurt. That's the character and leadership upgrade this room needed. Three, the Arkansas transfer Petrino brought along, Jacqawn McRoy, is fascinating: a 4-star, tackle who's all halo and potential. The run-blocking already ranked 67th with bodies coming back. I think Petrino makes this line work.

Now the defense, and this is the part I trust. The front is the strength. UNC's projected D-line grades out 7th in the country in returning PFF pass-rush, and that's anchored by Melkart Abou-Jaoude's 79.4 grade after he led the entire ACC with 10.5 sacks. A front like that travels, it doesn't slump on the road and it doesn't need to gel with a new quarterback. And bottom line, I trust Steve Belichick and Bill to make a defense work. The back end is more of a split decision, 17th in PFF coverage but 116th per play in 2025, and they lost Ty Adams in the portal after spring. Linebacker is thin, just two established returnees and a career-snaps profile near 100th, though Jamie Collins coaching that room is a nice NFL touch. Special teams sit under a new coordinator, which is usually right where a Belichick staff hides a quiet edge.

The skill spots tell the rest. Kaleb Jackson, the LSU transfer who never quite popped in Baton Rouge, had a strong spring and headlines the run-first backfield Petrino wants. At receiver I love Jordan Shipp coming back, I think there's a 1,000-yard season in him. I'm just not as high as everyone else on the Wisconsin transfer Trech Kekahuna. I get the excitement, the kid's lightning in a bottle and got clocked at 20.48 mph last year, but that's potential over production and I've gotta see it first. Then again, if anybody can scheme him into creative touches, it's Petrino. (Damnit, I hate when analysts talk out of both sides of their mouth.) The tight ends actually own the team's highest receiving grade, 5th nationally on a small sample, they added Ohio State transfer Jelani Thurman, and this room could be really really good.

It all comes back to the quarterback, and I genuinely wanted to fade this. I was ready to bury them when Taron Dickens, 38 touchdowns to 2 picks with an NCAA-record 46 straight completions at Western Carolina, decommitted over academics. Dickens in a Petrino offense was the dream. So I went back through Billy Edwards Jr's 2024 Maryland tape and there's a real player in there: 2,881 yards, 373 on USC, 289 and 3 with no picks at Indiana. But....In 2025 at Wisconsin he threw 16 passes before a knee injury ended his year, how healthy is he?. He's on his third school in three years, learning an offense he's never run.

I thought Belichick would absolutely own the portal and unearth lower-level gems (like Taron Dickens, oh wait, already gone). What he did was fine. It just doesn't ignite me. 52 players took part in spring practice who weren't on the roster last fall, so this is a near-total rebuild, and that's a lot of new to bank 8 or 9 wins on.

So where do I land? My model's down around 5 wins, my own gut is a touch kinder at 6 or 7, and here's the thing, both of those are under 7.5. If you're betting the over, you really believe in Bill and you really believe in Petrino. I follow the logic completely. I'm just not all the way there. Top-15 schedule by Phil Steele's math, they open against TCU in Dublin as a near-touchdown dog, and the Jordon Hudson FOIA circus is firing back up (a reported 800,000 pages, north of 8 grand to fulfill), so Chapel Hill won't be quiet off the field either.

Where do you have the Heels? 🐏

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

@TripsG11_ Thank you brother @TripsG11_ I can not wait for this season. Going to be epic

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

@TShoeIndex Thanks @TShoeIndex. No one has helped me go from losing square, to profitable CFB bettor more than you. Finding TSI is what started me on the path to profitable betting. And best, you post and my first new follower is Coach Hayden Fox! @coachfoxeagles

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

The market sits at 6.5 juiced to the over, because TCU drew the 37th-toughest schedule in the country.

So the record might look ordinary. The team won't be.

They'll be a tougher out than 6 or 7 wins suggests and will be live in spots people overlook this season.

I’ll be itching to find the buy low spots on TCU this fall.

Where would you have the Frogs? 👇

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

Now the question marks. Linebacker got gutted: 219 returning snaps, 124th nationally in experience at the spot.

The pass rush graded 100th but do return 7 of the top 8.

And a veteran secondary (11th in returning career snaps) still gave up explosive plays at a 91st-ranked rate in 2025.

Obviously with that much experience returning in the secondary and defensive line, you would expect a big step in production, but if its not QB, the question of this team is, what will the defense do?

If you’re betting the over on their win total, you’re betting on defensive coordinator Andy Avalos (which I think is a good bet)

[Zak Bigelow @CoachBiggsCFB]

@mcillecesports Yes, I was quite bummed, really wanted to see him with Petrino