@dwainmcfarland Yeah if I can get him round 3 I would without hesitation. Round 2 would have to be back half for me most likely. I have him in contract dynasty so I’m hoping the increased volume will save him
Interesting data. I’m gonna bet on same or less production. He looked really slow last year and was already not great at separating. He also won’t have Smitty opposite of him to take attention away so he’s gonna see more double coverage
AJ Brown is moving to a Patriots offense that passed for 56 more yards per game than the Eagles.
That is a massive jump.
He averaged 15.5 fantasy points once healthy from hamstring issues last year.
Still, he will be 29, and we can't dismiss the chronic knee issue.
What does history have to say about this archetype of player?
Parameters (2011-2025):
15+ PPG previous season (min 8 games)
40+ team pass YPG following season
29+ years
Results:
2013 - Brandon Marshall (30): 20.9 --> 18.2 PPG (-2.1)
Notes: CHI; Alshon Jeffery --> Year 2 Breakout; battled hip/quad injuries (arthroscopic hip surgery in Jan 2013)
2013 - Wes Welker (32): 18.2 --> 16.2 (-2.0)
Notes: DEN; Peyton Manning, Demarius Thomas + Eric Decker competition; 2 concussions
2018 - Antonio Brown (30): 22.0 --> 21.6 (-0.4)
Notes: PIT; The WR2 in fantasy
2018 - Julio Jones (30): 15.7 --> 20.6 (+4.9)
Notes: ATL; Battled injuries both seasons; boomed despite the addition of Calvin Ridley in Round 1
2023 - Cooper Kupp (30): 22.6 --> 13.5 (-9.1)
Notes: LA; Battled hamstring injury (missed first four games)
2025 - Davante Adams (33): 17.1 --> 15.9 (-1.2)
Notes: LA; Battled hamstring injury in the second half of the season; averaged 17.1 before injury; Puka Nacua target competition
Observations/Themes:
This is a small sample, so we shouldn't get carried away, but...
1. Despite the big uptick in passing yardage, only Julio Jones improved, but he was coming off a down year.
2. All except Kupp (preseason injury) remained highly relevant in fantasy football, even though we saw fewer fantasy points from most.
3. Most of these veterans battled nagging injuries.
Takeaway:
I like but don't love AJB as a Round 2 pick in 2025. I will be drafting him, but I am not taking a massive stand after reviewing all of the data.
His upside case is a Julio Jones-type season, but there is also a chance that the uptick in passing yards (which we are assuming happens) is just enough to keep him relevant as a low-end WR1. His target competition is low, which helps.
But we also can't rule out a downturn in PPG given the examples above. It happens.
Kevin Hart was PISSED when a kid recreated the PG version of the iconic “DAMN” scene between him & Don Cheadle 💀🤣🤣
“How old are you?”
“I’m 46, that’s my age”
“DANG”
Hes right. The difference was Fox and Wemby didnt make shots. The goal was make Brunson work for all his pts.. he took 31 shots to get 30 pts so they did what they set out to do.
Brunson took this game over in crunch time. Had a strong feeling they’d steal game 1. This Knicks team is really impressive on both ends. Gonna be a great series
And he did this with another legitimate WR1 next to him, arguably the best RB in the league, AND missed 6 games over the last two years. That tells us two things.
1. This was way beyond football.
2. Yall have been flat out lying about Jalen Hurts’ ability as a QB
Former Eagles WR A.J. Brown was reportedly frustrated with his role in Philadelphia.
Yet since Brown was traded to the Eagles in 2022, here’s where he ranked in each major receiving statistical category:
Targets: 521 (7th)
Receptions: 339 (11th)
Receiving Yards: 5,034 (5th)
Receiving Touchdowns: 32 (7th)
Since 2022, only two players ranked above Brown in all four of those categories:
- Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
That’s it…that’s the entire list! 🤯
In closing, I’m not sure that Brown’s role can truly be much bigger than what it was during his tenure in Philadelphia.
Let’s just say that the grass isn’t always greener.
“nothing i ever said was for personal gain”
devonta smith went for 9 catches 183 yards and 1 touchdown against the Vikings in a week 7 win
this is what brown posted after the game