In Correlation's data, we find no evidence that investments made by larger firms underperform those by smaller firms when controlling for vintage and stage. So agree with you re: the importance of controlling for vintage. Absolute returns by larger firms tend to trail those of smaller firms because they tend to invest a higher % of dollars in later stage, less risky rounds
Great post. You might find interesting a related blog post I wrote a while ago that shows that many of the biggest winners in venture (by actual return on investment) were not in unicorns, and many of the biggest winners in venture were not in unicorns. Thanks for the motivation to update the data on this! I've no doubt it will show similar results today. https://t.co/26rBoUwSVV
Interesting discussion. At Correlation Ventures, we believe we have the industry leading dbase of returns by stage. Seed returns are often greatly overestimated b/c of the survivorship bias issue that Sean mentioned. We find that Seed returns (multiple and IRR) are higher than other stages in most vintages, as expected, but that it is an appropriate level of higher return for the higher risk. So, the higher returns seen in Seed appear to be less due to greater inefficiency than to higher risk. Definitely agree with the key points above that most institutional venture funds are not well structured to capitalize on the higher returns seen in Seed.
@micahjay1 For the internet, cloudmobile, and CRISPR, returns were elevated for investments made ~5 years after their introductions. IF history repeats itself, that would imply that investors still have 1-2 more years of elevated returns following the AI onset (albeit lower than years 1-3)
I am excited to share the news of the close of @CorrelationVCβs third fund, as well as the promotions of @WesleyBarrow and @MoizSaifee. Excited to keep pioneering the use of predictive analytics in venture capital.
We at @CorrelationVC are very excited to announce the close of our third fund, Correlation III, as well as two new partners @WesleyBarrow and @MoizSaifee.
https://t.co/SmGYiY7feO
We at @CorrelationVC are very excited to announce our 300th investment as well as some new members of our team. It has been great to see the validation for our unique value proposition in the venture industry for the past 11 years. More here - https://t.co/mZwYuugDMP
If youβre attending the @biocom Global Life Science Partnering Conference, be sure to check out the The Future of Life Science Investing panel Iβll be speaking on, happening Wednesday, February 27th at 9:30am! #BiocomPartnering
We're adding 2 Associates to the firm in the Bay Area (https://t.co/6ER73Uhl2G) and in Boston (https://t.co/ALktf7ZzGZ). Bay Area Associate will focus mainly on IT and Consumer oppys and Boston Associate will focus mainly on healthcare oppys. Apply at [email protected]