Wavey Boy

A value investor refusing to be lost at the (maniac) sea.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@TeslaBoomerMama If they don’t exit their short position before Tesla reaches autonomy at scale, they will be obliterated

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

The Main Event.

Japan sold Treasuries to raise dollars to defend the Yen.

Yen appreciates, global risk-off, credit spreads widen, and the flight to safety behavior in long duration Treasuries reasserts.

The very dynamic I built my career around returns.

The phoenix.

I rise.

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

@leadlagreport

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

@MauiBoyMacro Always felt like TSLA is the most overleveraged

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

Few @leadlagreport

[Michael J. Kramer @MichaelMOTTCM]

Are we back in July 2024

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

@MauiBoyMacro @hussmanjp @DarioCpx The "permanently high plateau" moment

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

The most extreme in history? I can't imagine when the buying loop breaks.

[John P. Hussman, Ph.D. @hussmanjp]

may be useful to recognize you're in the most extreme gamma squeeze in history - while you still have a chance to recognize that you're in the most extreme gamma squeeze in history

not a forecast, not a market call, just FYI

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

@leadlagreport Outperforming the S&P500

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

@squawksquare For. 1929.

[John P. Hussman, Ph.D. @hussmanjp]

New comment is up on the website! 🐳

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

Because they will crash stocks to save bonds.

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

@FinanceLancelot A crash to 2020 levels over a few weeks look quite reasonable from this perspective

[Bloomberg @business]

The SpaceX IPO is about Elon Musk Elon Musking the Elon Muskiest of Elon Musk. (via @opinion) https://t.co/gS4HNcgiMr

[Cybertruck @cybertruck]

Heard you wanted a normal-looking truck

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

@mthrshpofdrp Shock G, that mentality can get you Shocked B. In this environment, it's dangerous to be complacent and to ignore the signals and doubt the power of the carry trade as it can flip very quickly.

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

Relentless

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

Japan will panic.

I’m fucking right.

This is the reverse carry trade catalyst.

It always was.

I never wavered.

I went through hell.

I suffered managing funds in a horrible cycle that didn’t favor them.

Enough.

Enough.

Enough.

I will not relent.

It’s my time now.

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

🤙

[Kalani o Māui @MauiBoyMacro]

Do things for people not because of who they are or what they can do for you in return, but because of who you are.

That’s aloha. 🤙🏼

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

USDJPY Carry Trade will be interesting

[ShortSeller @ShortSeller]

イーロン・マスクは、私の人生で最大の詐欺師だ。

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

Time to revisit a post - Tesla to drop significantly

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years.
It's hard to say I've never had the timing right.
I was short Amazon at the top in 2000.
I went way long small cap value in late 2000.
I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002.
In 2003, I got into Korea stocks before a big run.
In 2004, I got into China stocks before a big run.
In 2004, I got into oil before a big run.
I bought gold in 2005 and still 20 years later...
In summer 2005, I figured I was buying 5 years swaps on something would print within 2, and it did.
In 2008, October, I told my investors it was time to buy. More stocks bottomed then than in March 2009.
In 2009, I invested in Almonds/Water, it worked ok.
In 2013, I moved to buy Bitcoin after meeting with a friend at Lightspeed. I should have. Slept on it and did not.
In 2015, I bought NVDA. The CFO knows.
In 2018, I started pounding the table on Japan and opened a Japan fund, which I had to close for COVID.
In late 2019, I warned indexing and passive investing would make for very corrlated severe drawdowns in the market, and COVID hit 6 months later, we got the most correlatedl, sharp decline in modern history.
Early 2020, I entered 2020 very short. Which worked.
During early COVID I loaded up on stocks and had nearly a 100% year for the fund.
In 2020, I called lockdowns would be disastrous for women and children, and went on Twitter to say it.
IN 2020, I got GME to buy back 1/3 of its stock and change its board. Did ok.
July 2021, I gave Barron's an interview to warn on specific meme stocks at the top, and they crashed through Dec 2023.
2021, I warned about very high inflation from the policies that were being undertaken.
2023, I warned people to sell because I saw the banking crisis coming. I told them all was clear at the bottom in March as I could see it wouldn't be contagious.
2020s, I shorted Tesla, but these were trades, and it was volatile. I did not lose money overall shorting Tesla. Had some really big quick wins. Plus Tesla is only worth about $120.
I am not perfect, I did not hold AAPL or NVDA long enough, in 2025 we were up almost 100% again by Liberation Day, and I lost most of the gain (still up about double digits for the year at closing) but I would put the calls I've made over these decades up against anyone.
I would add visual proof for all this, but it is too much for this medium.

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

@hussmanjp I'm not completely done my deep dive but I'm excited. Noticed a small typo referencing March 2020 when speaking about tech bubble but I think you meant March 2000. - Small Community Note :)

[Wavey Boy @CocoMangoSurf]

E.S. Gayed 1987. A. Gayed 2026.

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

SAY

MY

MOTHER

FUCKING

NAME

PRIVATE

CREDIT

IS

THIS

CYCLE’S

SUB-PRIME