Codera Analytics

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[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Today's @CoderaAnalytics post by Sinead Morrow estimates private and public sector contributions to GDP growth in South Africa over time.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post by Oliver Guest provides a comparison of one-year ahead inflation forecast errors from the market for a range of countries since 2010 from Codera’s forthcoming audit of international central bank forecast performance.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Today's @CoderaAnalytics post by Jurgens Fourie shows that South Africa's economic growth has decoupled from US growth since the Covid-19 pandemic.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

PayInc's data show that net nominal salaries fell 0.5% in April 2026 compared to April 2025. Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post compares recent wage dynamics in SA from different sources with different coverage

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Together with Donald MacKay from @XA_advisors, @CoderaAnalytics will be presenting our findings from our survey on the firm costs and benefits of Black Economic Empowerment regulations in South Africa at this webinar next Tuesday. Register here: https://t.co/TpdqHpT0pp

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post by Jacques Quass De Vos updates our Trump Index, showing it remains lower than its 2025 peak.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post by Jacques Quass De Vos updates our SA Trade Uncertainty Index, showing it has fallen from its historical highs.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

In our new paper we compare cross-country IMF forecast accuracy. IMF projection accuracy for South Africa compares favourably for GDP and debt-to-GDP to other emerging markets. @JanPretorius98 @CoderaAnalytics Read paper: https://t.co/v2QYPHj3zM.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Post available here: https://t.co/n6zc6L3ou3

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post by Jacques Quass De Vos measures public inflation attention, counting the frequency of the word ‘inflation’ in South African newspapers. As we show in the post, inflation-related news coverage correlates with inflation expectations.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Today’s @CoderaAnalytics blog post is our @BusinessLiveSA article in which we use real-time forecasts to explain fiscal slippage in South Africa and compare SARB, Treasury, IMF and Market forecast accuracy. https://t.co/mrbmhUZddk

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

In today's @CoderaAnalytics post we use retail data to measure how different consumer segments respond to price increases by measuring changes in basket compositions in relation to changes in prices. Contact us for a quote for a subscription. Full post: https://t.co/yzyJoqs1fM

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Today's @CoderaAnalytics post by Jurgens Fourie shows that since 2000, the correlation between the SARB policy rate and the Fed funds rate has been only 0.37. This indicates that while the SARB does tend to follow the Fed's lead, it generally does so with a delay.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Our @CoderaAnalytics nowcasts covered in @FinancialMail: https://t.co/FojmHry7vi Contact us if you would like to subscribe

[Gina Schoeman Ackermann @ginaschoeman]

Always a pleasure contributing to thoughtful coverage by @ClaireBisseker in the @FinancialMail, particularly alongside such a strong group of economist peers, @daan_steenkamp from @CoderaAnalytics, @sanisha111, and Lisette from the @BERcoza.

Good economics conversations matter!

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Today's @CoderaAnalytics post by Lisa Martin shows that National Treasury has tended to  under-estimate the medium-term debt profile over the last decade. In contrast to National Treasury, the IMF does not project that SA's debt-to-GDP ratio will stabilise over the same horizon.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post shows that there has been a dramatic decline in the implied average business size in South Africa. There could be many reasons for the decline, as discussed in today's post.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

In our new paper, we compare SARB, Treasury, IMF and Market forecast accuracy. Since 2010, the IMF consistently provided the most accurate GDP projection, Treasury the top ranking for inflation forecasts until 2018. @JanPretorius98 @CoderaAnalytics See: https://t.co/v2QYPHjBpk.

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

In today's @BusinessLiveSA we discuss the drivers of fiscal slippage in SA: https://t.co/R324yjn2sK @JanPretorius98 @CoderaAnalytics

[Daan Steenkamp @daan_steenkamp]

On a per capita basis, South African employment and Investment are down over the last decade and a half. @CoderaAnalytics