@matthewjdowd Fundamentally, a (semi)incumbent that oversaw 8% inflation is battling against the tide. History, and elections in other countries, tell us this. As is correct, polls will become more heavily weighted vs this closer to Election Day
@joshtpm Thereโs a bunch of rich guys who were busy getting really really rich in the 2010s and so didnโt spend all that much time on the internet. Now they have more time, and they havenโt learnt how to see whatโs bullshit like the rest of us
@mattyglesias It lines up nicely with the investment of credibility already made with their base to be supportive of Biden beforehand. Bernie/AOC in particular. Now suffering from sunk cost fallacy to continue it
@DougSaunders "They will struggle for the sake of struggle...out of a certain boredom: for they cannot imagine living in a world without struggle. And if the greater part of the world in which they live is...peaceful and prosperous...then they will struggle against that peace and prosperity"
@puppyeh1 Nate silver doesnโt work at 538 anymore. This is a G Elliott Morris model now. Nateโs substack has its own model which has Biden down bad
@lxeagle17 Agreed (although I donโt loathe Biden at all!). I just think the main debate here is who has a better chance of winning - and the threshold shouldnโt be to have a better shot than Biden. Anywhere close to even (which is not very strong odds at this point) and itโs a good bet
@LPDonovan Interesting! Other thing I am curious about @gelliottmorris is whether the 538 state averages are moving based on national polls. I closely watch WI/PA/MI/etc and they are moving towards Biden - which national polls seem to be doing but polls in those states donโt from eyeballing
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@daphnehk Found this interesting and relevant for the legal side. Looking at how we might get to middleware through existing rules (combo of DSA plus interoperability). https://t.co/z89NZ1bhYh