*HISTORIC RALLY PUSHES #Arabica#coffee back WAY OVER the $4-mark to $4.21/lb
SEP 15, 2025 (SpillingTheBeans)--BREAKING #KC: LOTS of take-away from t back WAY OVER tee suring over 24 cents in ONE SINGLE session supported by;
1-SOLID VOLUME with aprox 45K contracys for frst 2 front month alone and CONFIRMING that Monday's rally is a REAL PRICE INDICATION move caused by MASSIVE panich over growing supply deficit with ongoing and continuing WORSENING crop disaster problems ahead of 2026 flowering made EVEN WORSE by DISASTER arabica crop in now completed 2025 crop!!
2-TYPICAL for Pro-Camp in #KC and it's supporters they are trying to play up what has LITERALLY been 2-3 DROPS OF RAINS across a SMALL part of #coffee lands both in robusta-conilon regions on Espirito Santo BUT FAILS TO UNDERSTAND the basics of #coffee agronomy that any rains BELOW a solid 20mm is at this point causing MUCH MORE HARM than good as 80-90% of whatever flowering that MAY emerge from such small and sporadic rains 1) already has been absorbed by EXTREME HEAT WAVE with temps at 36-38-40-43 degrees Celcius across most on Minas Gerais over the last 2-3 days and BEST result to hope for is that the last remaining 10-15% flowers MAY turn into new leaves to be able to support at least a SMALL PART of flowers toward fruit,
3-EVEN WORSE for the pro-bear camp and it's supporters in #KC is that trees and farms WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER HIGHER rates of defoliation in the coming days and weeks as a DIRECT RESULT - with unavoidable ADDITIONAL IRREVERSIBLE losses to the already severely damaged 2026 flowering and there is NO RAINS that can reverse that damage, at this point the BEST STARTING potential for Brazil's next 2025 crop is 60-70% of a MEDIUM-good crop,
4-NO MY BEAR FRIENDS, #coffee prices for both #robusta and #arabica WILL NOT COME DOWN between now and a VERY LONG TIME, possibly not only weeks or months but for YEARS to come until Brazil MAY pull off some decent recovery between 2029-2030 and global recovery for WORLD PRODUCTIO just MAY be able to 90% of previous production levels, there will be NO SIGNIFICANT drop in #KC to below a min range of $3-$6 and,
5-Those MANY who DID take my comments and analysis serious in the last week and months and years and at least SECURED A GOOD % of fresh supply ahead of the TOP WINTER CONSUMER period in the U.S. and Europe still managed to bye at prices bewteen $3.50-$4 and should be VERY PLEASED that they won't have to pay EVEN MORE for coffee in the last 6 weeks remaining before TIME RUNS OUT in securing fresh supply for the winter roasting-consuming season for which LAST MOMENT to buy is end-Oct or NO FRESH COFFEE will be able to make it in time from harvest to importing ports until the winter season IS OVER and ,
6-U.S. roasters are PARTICULARLY SCREWED since most of the LAST REMAINING #COFFEE STOCKS are nearly ALL HELD IN EUROPEAN ports, hence U.S. roasters NOT BUYING between today and next 6 weeks will not only have to byt STOCKS - some as old as 10 years - but will FURTHERMORE have to pay ADDITIONAL MASSIVE freight fees to bring this old coffee stocks by EXPENSIVE container freight back to the U.S. from European courts...
7-Which BEGS the tarrif-question, would the 50% tarrif on RAW MATERIAL IMPORTS directly from Brazil and Latin America not be MUCH CHEAPER than adding the container freight from Europe???,
8-And NO there is ZERO HOPES not even in the wildest WET FANTASTY DREAMS of the pro-bear camp - and Multinatinals in particular in Brazil FULL WELL KNOW THAT I AM RIGHT AND THEY ARE WRONG - that the FAKE NEWS USDA-report projecting "record harvest in the world 2025-26 output at a record 178.7 million bags will materialize as Brazil already is down AT LEAST 10M-14M bags from the USDA figure and Vietman even with a possibly SMALL recovery continues at leats 4-5M bags before USDA figure, citing a stable production outlook in Brazil and recovering output in other origins such as Vietnam so world crop for next 2025-26 cycle starting next month is ALREADY running at a MAX production of 164M-168M,
9-MOST MIS-LEADING STATEMENT from the bear camp proclaming that there is no problem with production "unless there is some major issue with the flowering for the Brazilian 2 6-27 crop, and that story isn’t written yet" - ..... SERIOUSLY ???? The 2026 flowering has already suffered MAJOR SEVERE and IRREVERSIBLE DAMAGE but the old-school of #KC analysts simply either REFUSE to accept the facts, or never even TRIED to learn and understand the BASICS of coffee agronomy and therefor CANNOT understand the way SOCIO-ECONOMICS have changed the ground game for the #KC trade and WON'T RECOVER from current MAJOR STRUCURAL problems for hundreds of millions of tiny coffee grower families across the world living in ENDEMIC POVERTY which has forced them to ABANDON min 30-50% of the WORLD's coffee land with ZERO incentive to come back perhaps EVER again,
10-And finally, ANY RAINFALL below a solid 20m will cause MORE HARM THAN good to the already extremely FRAGILE and bad stated of Brazil trees and farms ahead of the 2026 flowering, so SORRY MY FRIENDS in #KC, if you believe any of all the BlaBlaBullSh&*#t talk by the pro-bear camp, you may as well start writing up your Chapter 11 papers because THE COFFEE IS NOT THERE and nor will ANY NEW FRESH SUPPLY arrives in import markets in time for the TOP Winter Consumer season and if you can lock in most of your sales at $4-$4.50/lb consider yourself among the LUCKY FEW who may be able to continue to hang on to the #coffee business.
*Finally, STOP BLAMING THE FARMERS FOR BEING GREEDY, they have continued to produce the #coffee we all SO LOVE to start our day with even through more than 25-30 years of BELOW COST OF PRODUCTION prices and NO-ONE in #KC can expect a farmer to sell BELOW THE MARKET, so remember, without EVERY SINGLE ONE #COFFEE #CAFE farmer small or large there would be ZERO #KC MARKET to profit from !!
*And to my critics feeling resentful toward my comments here, I have given you AMPLE TIME to change your business models that would have allowed you to continue a SUSTAINABLE business model today but PURE & RAW Corporate Greed have come in the way for too many even when ALL THE SIGNS AND DATA was there since 2012 that THE WORLD IS RUNNING OUT OF COFFEE !!
The orchards had potential of producing one of the sweetest hass avocado 🥑 and premium coffee ☕️ due to unforseen weather challenges above remains a dream
We shall be doing some fungicide and foliar feed to keep tree alive.
Dreams shattered
From Green Beans to Roasted Coffee
Intro
“Ever wondered how green beans turn into your favorite coffee? Let’s see the journey!”
Steps:
Green Beans – Raw, grassy, no aroma.
Roasting – Heat transforms beans, aroma begins.
First Crack – Beans expand, coffee magic starts
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