Everyone is bullish right now. I'm not after June 15:
1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.
$NVDA — institutions sell liquid mega caps to fund IPO allocations
$AAPL — highest liquidity name dumped first during capital reallocation
$AMZN — mega cap growth sold to raise new IPO subscription capital
$DRAM — small ETF sees outflows as risk appetite shifts to IPOs
$SNDK — mid-cap storage name dropped as investors chase new listings
2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17
$TSLA — high duration growth stock crushed by rising rate expectations
$IONQ — unprofitable quantum play reprices hard when discount rates rise
$RKLB — speculative space name hit hardest in risk-off rate environments
$BE — clean energy loses subsidy narrative appeal under hawkish Fed
$ASTS — pre-revenue satellite stock hammered when cost of capital rises
3. $MU $ORCL earnings is the peak of market
$MU — peak earnings historically precede 30-40% semiconductor drawdowns
$AMD — forward guidance cuts ripple across entire chip supply chain
$MRVL — data center demand narrative breaks on weak MU commentary
$NVDA — cycle top confirmed when memory peers signal inventory glut
$AAOI — optical interconnect demand collapses when AI capex narrative cracks
4. Midterm elections create market uncertainty
$NOW — enterprise SaaS multiples compress under policy and rate uncertainty
$VRT — data center infrastructure spending stalls on fiscal policy ambiguity
$LITE — optical component orders slow as capex decisions get delayed
$NBIS — small cap AI infrastructure name hit hardest by risk-off selling
$IREN — crypto mining equity crushed by regulatory uncertainty in midterms
$KEEL — low liquidity name sees outsized drawdown during election volatility
$TE — industrial connector demand weakens on macro uncertainty and delays
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SPY closed right here on Friday (before US ground invasion into Iran)
War expected to last 2-3 months. If so, SPY heads down a lot quicker towrads $620 and (lower).
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