CoinNotes

Trading. AI. Building AlphaPair.

Collaborating with @pear_protocol.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

Strategy to outperform 90% of CT:

1. Buy Bitcoin at HTF moving averages (200-300w).

2. Until then, trade on @variational_io and @extendedapp to farm the airdrops. Delta neutral between HTF levels; directional at HTF levels.

Variational code: OMNIVOID
Extended code: COINNOTES

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

@Greed2Fear I think we are some way away from 'unprecedented', but you can never rule it out.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

"The Times 03/Jan/2028 Congress on brink of second bailout for tech giants." Time is a flat circle. We will be back.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

50k in 2026 is 20k in 2022.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

Saylor did the market an enormous favour. The next best thing he could have done is sell until he owns a smaller proportion of the supply, like 2%. Maybe we'll get lucky enough to see that happen.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

@crypto_condom lower for longer

https://t.co/3bI1rkokqT

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

Most people have predicted this Bitcoin bear market would be shallower and shorter than average: we now have passive institutional flows and stronger hands buying.

I want the speculate on an alternative: this bear market could be considerably worse. Here's why.

Why does anyone buy Bitcoin? I'm not talking about the OGs who are now unloading into Wall Street, the True Believers. I'm talking about everyone who has bought it since, say, 2017.

It's the exponential growth, stupid. They don't want to hold stocks for a 'safe' 7% a year. They need to escape the permanent underclass, or wage slavery, or whatever the latest description is, and they need it now.

For that promise, buyers in this market have been willing to endure 70-80% drawdowns every 4 years.

But that promise is fading.

🔸 Each cycle offers worse returns than the last.
🔸 As Bitcoin inevitably trades deep into 'last cycle' prices for the first time, even longer term holders' conviction will be challenged as it never was before.
🔸 It is a well known dynamic that people are more willing to hold as long as they are in profit. In previous cycles, all n-1 cycle buyers remained in profit. This time they will not. That will unlock new sellers.
🔸 Volatility and easy leverage in other markets offer alternative routes to the same end, making the case for new buyers less straightforward.
🔸 Generally, everyone now knows about Bitcoin and anyone who wants to buy Bitcoin now has a way to. The next marginal buyer will be much harder to find.

All of this is to say nothing of the possibility of a wider economic downturn. My concerns are based purely on Bitcoin's mythology, narrative appeal, and price dynamics.

Ultimately, I still intend to buy BTC at and below the 200 week SMA. However, I think there is a significant likelihood that we could be given opportunities to buy materially lower than that, and that this bear market could last, for example, 3 years instead of 1.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

You're telling the CEO of IOHK, founder of Cardano and Ethereum to use the support email?

[Charles Hoskinson @IOHK_Charles]

I'm taking a break. TTYL

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

Feels fucking awful to have missed this massive bull run in equities. Being slow to adapt is expensive. Slow to accept the move from ETH>Alt L1s, from Alt L1s > NFTs, and now crypto > equities. Very hard to get on board with charts that look like this.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

300 week sma

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

i just sold the last of my spot BTC from my 20k buys.

up or down, it was a good run.

my next buys will be at the 300 week sma, whether that's 50k or 150k.

I'll stick around to keep me engaged and farm airdrops, but feels like the end of a journey. until the next.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

$BTC HTF view. Next level of interest is 48k.

I have no idea how low Saylor can take us. Also, this is the first time in BTC's history where it will spend a meaningful amount of time at previous cycle levels. This will unlock new sellers.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

Bitcoin looks like shit, unfortunately. I think >60% odds of new lows by October.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

Looks like $zec thesis got front ran. I think momentum alone can take this thing much higher 1.2k seems like a reasonable first target. There will be a point at which ZEC flipping BTC becomes a serious conversation, which is when you want to dump it all.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

Coins I want to buy when their accumulation ranges form:

1. Bitcoin. It’s still king until dethroned.
2. Zcash. Privacy, quantum, digital rock 2.0.
3. Link. Trillions.
4. Eth/Sol - Just in case the natives are right.
5. Hype. Perps meet tradfi.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

@thedefivillain Check others/btc

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

$LAC

Seen some great traders accumulating. Looks like a great HTF setup.

Monthly: Potential higher low. Monthly resistance flipped to support. Momentum oscillators ready to flip positive for the first time since 2020.

Weekly: EMAs compressing and starting to cross.

Daily: Swept lows, reclaims, EMAs have crossed, 200EMA tested and held as support.

H4: Same story as daily.

On every timeframe, it's looking ready for a move.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

innoculated. unbothered. moisturized. happy. in my lane. focused. flourishing.

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

like wtf is this

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

i need to stop shorting alts and just short bitcoin 😅

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

70k is last line of defence and i dont think it will hold

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

Bitcoin looks like shit, unfortunately. I think >60% odds of new lows by October.

[VIKTOR @thedefivillain]

@CoinNotes_io Yes I did.

One is about all my best trading advice for trading scam coins: https://t.co/cLRJKLAXCl

The other is a compilation of all the scam pumps and their features: https://t.co/xzvc3YaGmO

(They are under a paywall but you can theoretically subscribe for one month only)

[CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io]

@thedefivillain Have you got a writeup about all these scam pumps somewhere? This has been a very interesting niche meta.