@thedefivillain $140M/month just to pay dividends.
If you believe that's temporary it's not a big deal. But at that point some people would price in the scearnio where that's a permanent drag instead of temporary.
Well, depends on whether dividends pause at some point. If it does pause, MSTR would lose trust forever and basically raise their financing cost so badly.
If it does not pause, actual amount of BTC needed to be sold to cover dividends/interest are substantial.
I don't know what's Saylor's plan. But if I were him, I would slam the MSTR ATM, raise cash reserve to 24 month to dividends in one or two weeks. MSTR would probably still be >1 mNAV after that, and the pref shares can at least heal themselves slowly after that.
MSTR is not gonna unwind tomorrow, but it is getting eerily close.
Issuing STRC was a mistake. Buying back $1.3B convertible with cash reserve was a mistake. Saylor did those obviously in anticipation of BTC going up and up.
If I recall correctly, the reccuring weekly "Did MSTR buy BTC" resolve exclusively based on 8-K form released date (does not matter when the buy actually happens).
So everytime when Monday is a holiday and annoucement delayed to Tuesday is a confusing shitshow. Don't think it will be different this time.
Lol a few days ago I was actually considering if that could be a conflict because I knew that the next 8K form would only be available on June 1st.
But iirc the last time this situation happened, it settled in the "logical way", ie YES in this case.
WLD: I am a scam coin, but I am running a honey pot.
Retail: yea I am in.
WLD: Hey I am running a honey pot again
Retail: yea I am in.
WLD: Hey I am...
Retail: I am in
Fact 1: BTC ETF flows are very easy to predict
- sign clustering
- magnitude clustering
- autocorrelate persistently
Fact 2: BTC ETF +/- flow correlates with same day BTC return
Question: Can ETF flows be used to predict forward BTC return?