Colasama

Trader. Sharing on-/off-chain data, in the human centipede of infomation chain.

[Colasama @Colasama]

@TJ_Research 有没有考虑过strc分红利率提升到了一定程度，投资者会开始对利率不敏感？

[Colasama @Colasama]

@thedefivillain $140M/month just to pay dividends.

If you believe that's temporary it's not a big deal. But at that point some people would price in the scearnio where that's a permanent drag instead of temporary.

[Colasama @Colasama]

Well, depends on whether dividends pause at some point. If it does pause, MSTR would lose trust forever and basically raise their financing cost so badly.

If it does not pause, actual amount of BTC needed to be sold to cover dividends/interest are substantial.

I don't know what's Saylor's plan. But if I were him, I would slam the MSTR ATM, raise cash reserve to 24 month to dividends in one or two weeks. MSTR would probably still be >1 mNAV after that, and the pref shares can at least heal themselves slowly after that.

[Colasama @Colasama]

One degen move by Saylor, and whoosh BTC heading to 0.

[Colasama @Colasama]

MSTR is not gonna unwind tomorrow, but it is getting eerily close.

Issuing STRC was a mistake. Buying back $1.3B convertible with cash reserve was a mistake. Saylor did those obviously in anticipation of BTC going up and up.

[Colasama @Colasama]

I wonder at what point alts would start following the BTC dump, or everything just decides to decouple with BTC because of the MSTR shitshow.

[Colasama @Colasama]

@leifuchen 干，非常干的干货

[Colasama @Colasama]

If I recall correctly, the reccuring weekly "Did MSTR buy BTC" resolve exclusively based on 8-K form released date (does not matter when the buy actually happens).

So everytime when Monday is a holiday and annoucement delayed to Tuesday is a confusing shitshow. Don't think it will be different this time.

[VIKTOR @thedefivillain]

Lol a few days ago I was actually considering if that could be a conflict because I knew that the next 8K form would only be available on June 1st.

But iirc the last time this situation happened, it settled in the "logical way", ie YES in this case.

[Colasama @Colasama]

@ggvaultone1 exactly. wanted more beta exposure, but beta don't really behave well in crypto..

[Colasama @Colasama]

Accurate.

[Chase @Crypto_Chase]

“But he only sold 32 $BTC ”

It’s not about him selling. It’s about the ONLY bidder, not bidding.

[Colasama @Colasama]

@ggvaultone1 and I also got liquidated shorting ZEC and WLD. FML

[Colasama @Colasama]

WLD: I am a scam coin, but I am running a honey pot.
Retail: yea I am in.

WLD: Hey I am running a honey pot again
Retail: yea I am in.

WLD: Hey I am...
Retail: I am in

[Colasama @Colasama]

Easy, you mint ~$3M worth of CC token every day and distribute to protocols and users who "paid" the $2M fee.

[Param @Param_eth]

This f**king Canton chain has just $475k TVL.

However, they generate ~ $2 million in revenue each day.

How?

[Colasama @Colasama]

Fact 1: BTC ETF flows are very easy to predict
- sign clustering
- magnitude clustering
- autocorrelate persistently

Fact 2: BTC ETF +/- flow correlates with same day BTC return

Question: Can ETF flows be used to predict forward BTC return?

[Colasama @Colasama]

@asteroid_spcx ballpark number 30+, not that cheap

[Colasama @Colasama]

The biggest hurdle for $HYPE to go higher is that it actaully has fundamental like P/E to look at, unlike other shits in the crypto industry.

[Colasama @Colasama]

@dhcfund well. HL platform fee has been declining, hard to justify that

[Colasama @Colasama]

@wufantouzi 团队又不缺钱，这有什么意义？

[Colasama @Colasama]

@bitcoinduke close enough to make me sweat

[Colasama @Colasama]

Reminder that $LIT is not the ticker

[MONK @defi_monk]

Reminder that if you want pureplay exposure to the perpification trend there is only one leading publicly traded asset to buy