“The fasten seat belts sign is on”.
This is a message I received early this morning from one of the UK’s most experienced, savvy and respected financial traders. Someone I have come to know and trust for the last 25 years.
10-year bond yields are now almost 4.5pc - up some 50 basis points over the last month.
30-year yields this morning went above 6pc - a 28-year high.
Yet the UK’s political and media class continues to focus on party posturing and folksy rhetoric, ignoring the slow-motion disaster that has been happening on the UK’s sovereign bond markets for at least the last 18 months - a disaster that will inevitably, unless we drastically change course, turn into a fully blown market meltdown.
At that point, the UK government won’t be able to borrow enough money to finance our already spiralling debt interest bill.
Britain’s financial management will be taken over by overseas technocrats - that will be the condition of additional borrowing, to maintain the basic functions of the state, as happened in Greece and Italy back in the early 2010s and here in Britain 50 years ago this year (when we were forced in 1976 to apply to the IMF for a bailout).
The austerity then imposed on Britain would make 2010-2019 feel like a picnic - far, far worse than it would be if we took serious action now to control our public finances.
Lower-income households would suffer most - and there would be serious damage done to the UK’s already rapidly-fraying social fabric ….
I have been warning about these looking fiscal dangers publicly, in my newspaper columns and elsewhere, since at least early 2024.
Doing so hasn’t been easy or fun. I have been dismissed and derided by numerous economists, “economists”, officials and policymakers - as well as lots of journalists.
I absolutely don’t want a disastrous 1976-style outcome - which is why I’ve taken the blows and issued the warnings.
The state is too big. Public spending is out of control. Our fiscal rules are a convenient nonsense - designed to kick the can of financial reality into the future. We need to get real … and take bold action to tame the growth of spending, push back a now totally over-bearing state and snap the British economy out of today’s high-tax-high-borrowing-low-growth doom loop - the result of myopic, counter-productive policy-making by successive governments for the last decade and more …
Other prominent economists who agree with me - ie who are financially-literate, can read a yield curve, have a passing interest in economic history and who understand the dangers of some 80pc of UK government borrowing going on debt interest as it currently is - need to chuck “career risk” in the bin, and start saying publicly what so many of them have, for quite a while now, only had the bottle to say to me in private …
Remember: “The fasten seat belts sign is on”
Running out of diesel
Russian threat
Bond yields spiking
Illegal migrants arriving undetected
Villages voting to leave UK
Citizens unsafe and furious
Civil unrest
A&E waiting times growing
Inflation up
Joblessness up
Neets up
&&&&
But beer at football matches and yet another quango to quash free speech.
Tells you all you need to know about Burnham.
♦️This old headline is haunting Ed Davey again!
♦️ Post Office Minister 2010-12, then
♦️ £275k consultant to Herbert Smith Freehills - the firm that fought the subpostmasters in court.🤦
He claims he didn't know.
No matter how he tries to
be Mr Happy Chappy, this is his legacy. He was working for them.
Good job these cabinet ministers didn't have to go through any interview processes.
I can remember going for job interviews and reading all the information I could get on the company, to ensure I could answer most questions asked of me.
When John Healey was Defence Secretary, he didn't know how many frigates we had.
Now as Chancellor, he didn't realise how bad the public finances are.
John Healey shouldn't be anywhere near a position of power. The man is a colossal idiot.
🇪🇺⚡️🇫🇷 | Over the past 24 hours, tens of thousands of patriots on social media have shared posts claiming that Ursula von der Leyen has destroyed Europe !!
🟥💬Do you agree with them?
Absolute nonsense. Net zero is costing the taxpayer an absolute fortune and it won’t make a blind bit of difference apart from lining the pockets of the corporations who receive government contracts - funded by us. It’s a gigantic virtue-scam at our expense.
@JamesMelville Not forgetting that almost 100% of solar panels and their components are manufactured in China then shipped here.
If course this has no effect on global warming 😉 Chinese making a fortune while we pay for it. And of course most wind turbines and components are made across Europe
🚨 BREAKING: FORMER MI6 CHIEF WARNS WOKE NET ZERO POLICIES HAVE SURRENDERED BRITISH ENERGY TO RUSSIA AND CHINA!
This is one of the most chilling national security warnings ever delivered to a British government.
Former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove has issued a blistering intervention, warning that Great Britain is standing on an energy cliff edge because politicians prioritised woke Net Zero dogma over hostile foreign threats.
He warned that our real adversaries are Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, who now possess the strategic leverage to literally sever our pipelines and turn our national lights out!
Dearlove took direct aim at Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband, ridiculing the arch prophet of Net Zero for obsessing over Middle East sanctions while our own critical infrastructure is left completely exposed.
He also slammed Andy Burnham's shocking PMQs claim that national security cannot come before social security, warning that Labour has forgotten the primary duty of the state.
We shut down our own North Sea oil, plastered farmland with Chinese solar panels, and left our energy grid vulnerable to foreign sabotage.
Labour did not save the planet. They simply disarmed Great Britain. The mask has completely slipped.
@BenGrahamUK But, but, but 22 billion black hole. Have they used that one recently? Not to forget Margaret Thatcher and Brexit. Never a mention of Blair or indeed any Labour government or politicians.